GOP Titanic Tuesday (Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Illinois, Missouri, Northern Mariana Islands)

oh believe me they are completely fucking stupid

all these black and latino people voting for Hillary, what the hell are you doing?

 

Let's see how I did:

21 point Trump win in Florida -> 19 point lead
13 point Trump win in NC -> 4 point lead
3 point Kasich win in Ohio -> 10 point lead
3 point Trump win in Illinois -> 8 point lead
3 point Cruz win in Missouri -> virtual tie

 

oh yeah that's where the Yankees hold spring training over in Tampa

 

The Missouri race is fairly big.

Cruz with a win to double up with the Kasich win in Ohio is something for the anti-Trump Republican establishment to push on with their efforts to unseat Trump at the convention.

Trump's path to 1237 has gotten a bit more difficult with tonight's results. He will need roughly 60 % of the remaining delegates. Lots of upcoming states that are either winner take all or winner take most. So all Trump has to do is win by 1 vote in those states and it's a big bonanza.

If you just take the percentage of delegates Trump has won thus far between himself, Cruz and Kasich (the remaining contenders), he is at roughly 54 %. With Kasich winning the big 66 delegate count in his home state tonight, that % may be a little skewed against Trump. Take away Ohio and Trump has won roughly 57 % of the vote, probably a truer reflection as Kasich will not win much from this point forward.

 

Looks like Trump will barely eek out a win in Missouri.

316,238 to 313,923 with 99 percent of the precincts reporting.

Somewhat significant as Missouri awards 12 delegates to the winner that doesn't get a majority of the vote. Then the remaining delegates are doled out based on congressional districts. Winner of each congressional district gets 5 delegates each.

So based on 52 total delegates, you'd expect the following breakdown:

Trump 32
Cruz 20
Kasich 0

Again, the 12 vote swap between Trump and Cruz is somewhat significant (a 24 delegate swing).

UPDATE: CNN just showed the map of Missouri and Trump has won most of the state (Cruz only has 3 big pockets). So the congressional districts will be mainly won by Trump, so it could end up:

Trump 42
Cruz 10
Kasich 0

 

Delegate count (estimate):

Trump 661 (factoring in Trump winning 42 of the 52 delegates in Missouri)
Cruz 406
Kasich 138
Rubio 168
Others 15

Doing the math, Trump has won roughly 55 % between just these 3 candidates. Again, factoring out Ohio, that number jumps to 58 % (a better indicator).

Trump has won roughly 48 % of the delegates thus far (661 of 1384).

Trump needs 576 of the estimated remaining 1084 delegates (53 %).

So if you read in between the lines and see that Trump has won 55 % of the delegates between who is left in the race (and probably closer to 58 % being more accurate), and needing to win only 53 % after tonight, Trump is in line to get to the convention with the necessary delegate count to avoid a contested convention.

 

They did exit polling in Florida, NC and Ohio on if you'd vote for a particular candidate should they be the nominee?

Trump 70 % "definitely" or "probably" in Ohio, 73 % in Florida, 76 % in NC. They asked the same question about Cruz or Rubio had strikingly similar results. So the whole idea that Trump has so much more work to do should he be the nominee is completely false.

Add to that you always have a subset of the electorate that says they won't fall in line when polled during the nominating process, and then come election time they, for the most part, do fall in line.

So I suspect 90-95 % of the Republicans in those polls would indeed vote for Trump in November.