Looks like a 20+ point win. That's a big news story. Bad bad news for Trump. Probably takes all but 3 or maybe 6 delegates in Wisconsin. Kasich won't win any at 15 %.
That's why I've gotten off the Trump train. I was on it just because it appeared he was the slam dunk nominee and we need to back someone (ABC election, anybody but Clinton). So now it's time to push Cruz. He is as strong and defiant as Trump without the stupidity and childishness.
And now were about to see what the consequences of the 2nd grader in Cruz in a Much bigger, delegate rich state. Any predictions? Lyin' Ted finna eat or get drop kicked back into Canada?
Oh that's a dropkick into Canada. Trump will win over 50 % of the vote in his 'home state' of NY. The question is what happens in Pennsylvania and other NE states (Delaware, RI, Conn, Maryland all in a row). That's where I think Kasich and Cruz make gains to limit Trump's delegate count, mandatory in keeping him from 1237. New York is proportional, so Trump really needs to be pushing 60 % there, if he has an underwhelming night in the high 40s instead, his road to 1237 is essentially over. Pennsylvania (71) and Maryland (38) are winner take all at the congressional district level. Trump could do what Cruz is doing in Wisconsin tonight, winning almost all the delegates in both those states. Probably something he will need to do to get to 1237. Delaware is winner take all, but only 16 delegates. Trump probably wins there. Connecticut is proportional, so Trump is probably going to get less than 50 % of those delegates (28).
Given the info above, through the end of April, I'll project the best case scenario for Trump in the northeast (his reported stronghold): Current count after Wisconsin: (1601 thus far) Trump 755 (47.2 %) Cruz 517 New York (57 of 95) 60 % Connecticut (14 of 28) 50 % Delaware (16 of 16) Plurality Maryland (29 of 38) Mid to upper 40s Pennsylvania (56 of 71) Mid to upper 40s 172 of 248 That puts Trump at 927 of 1849, or 50.14 % of the vote (on pace for 1239).
Fox News is projecting Trump to finish with 1193 delegates, before the convention. 44 votes short. They are projecting Ted Cruz to finish with 750ish delegates. 430+ votes short.
Btw, Cruz has won 5 congressional districts in Wisconsin, Trump only one. Two remaining districts to be decided. I've given one district (3 delegates) to each candidate in the numbers just above. So that would give Cruz 36 of the 42 delegates. It could end up 39 or stay at the current 33.
