The line I use (Olympic Sports) opened Sunday afternoon with Florida favored by 6 points. By Monday morning it was down to 4 points. Now (Tues morning) it's back to 6. That sure sounds like too many.
It's a betting line. I never put much stock in it but my guess is there some home field advantage built into it.
They made it larger than it should be so people would bet on it -- that's worth about two points or so plus a point or two for home field an that makes them about a two point favorite. That's not too far fetched.
Making the line 6 points, seems to me, is the bookies inviting most people to bet on LSU. This makes me nervous because the bookies are right more than they are wrong.
they are usually right on how to get an even # of bets for each team. that has nothing to do with predicting the winner.
I disagree. Sometimes you see games where the line looks all out of whack and most people are betting one way. The bookies usually clean up on these games.
LSU is 6.5 underdogs on my wagering site. Sadly those guys in vegas are more accurate then wrong (Which doesnt bode well). For example for those of us who like to wager look at the Arkansas UF game. How many Non sports betters where watching that game in the last minute. I can tell you all of us who do were. UF scoring that touchdown to get to 38 instead of 31, meant UF beat the spread. I kind of wonder if Urban Myth knew the line as well, they were up 31-7 with a minute left and had the ball, yet somehow managed to score again on a 48 yard run with 1:04 left in the game.... Arkansas wasnt about to take time outs down 31-7 so why not take a knee ? Those guys are scary to be honest how accurate they are with point spreads. But there are those juicy ones. Like when USC came only 10.5 favs over Ohio State, I went large on that as soon as it was posted. Word is Vegas took a beating on USC vs Ohio State. Everyone bet USC, so much it moved almost 3 points. OU is about the same favorite over UT.
its not their prediction of the final score. so if they are scary accurate its because of the public/wiseguys money perception where it should be. and regarding the big schools like UF. Many of the coaches keep the alumni happy by covering when they can but Meyer didnt even have tebow in and was running the ball. just so happened r-kansas had a jailbreak and no one back to defend once he busted through. it happens. and the reason so many of the lines are accurate is because many coaches know the line and try to cover it when possible. Or at least try to blow out the weak teams. it reflects better in the polls when the votes go out.
this is true, Maybe Florida wasnt really trying. but I still find it amazing how close the lines are week in and week out. but even the totals are pretty close on average. So they are predicting final scores if you look at it from that point of view. I have lost more games this year by .5 of a point.
