It will take a lot for Alabama not to make it to the BCS CG. It's almost down to Auburn upsetting Alabama. Otherwise we have the following (note, LSU has to beat Arkansas in all 3 of these scenarios): Oklahoma State Has to beat Oklahoma by at least 21 points (and preferably more) on Dec 3rd Virginia Tech needs to lose to Virginia (sets up for Okie State to be #3 in the human polls BEFORE they play OU) Stanford needs to lose to Notre Dame (sets up for Okie State to be #3 in the human polls BEFORE they play OU) Alabama needs to have a lackluster game vs Auburn (a very narrow win preferably) Projected computer polls in this scenario: Oklahoma State .960, Alabama .920 (computers clearly calling for an LSU/Oklahoma State showdown) Oklahoma State would have to cut the margin between a solid 2nd and solid 3rd human poll ranking by 1/2 of the way, essentially not having to overtake Alabama, but just get close (Within 19 pts for Coaches, 37 pts for Harris). Essentially a minimum of 1/4 of the voters would have to switch their vote from Alabama to Oklahoma State for 2nd place on their ballot. Virginia Tech Has to destroy both Virginia and even more importantly Clemson Oklahoma State needs to lose to Oklahoma Stanford needs to lose to Notre Dame Kansas State needs to lose to Iowa State (computer polls) Stanford Oregon needs to lose to Oregon State (allows Stanford to win the PAC 12 and play an extra game) Stanford needs to destroy Notre Dame and then UCLA/Utah Oklahoma State needs to lose to Oklahoma Kansas State needs to lose to Iowa State (computer polls) It's the "so you're saying there's a chance" syndrome.
That will be their decision. But Oklahoma State has probably the only viable chance because of their computer poll strength and the opponent they play last (beloved Oklahoma), and on the last weekend of the season with Alabama sitting home. They would only need 1/4 of the voters to change. Virginia Tech and Stanford could conceivably get nearly every voter to chance their mind and maybe not overtake Alabama because of their weaker computer polls. Made a mistake initially and said 1/3 of the voters need to change their mind, it's actually only 1/4. Oklahoma State or bust. That's pretty much it in a bloody big nutshell.
Just to be clear on a couple of things: If we lose to Arky, does Bama go to the SECCG? It seems like they would since they beat Arky? The more likely scenario is we beat Arky, and we obviously go to and win the SECCG. If so, Bama is sitting at home on 12/3. Isn't it more logical for a one-loss conference champion to go the BCSCG than Bama? :geauxtige
The masses, some of which I have on speed dial, are screaming for this game. "They want Alabama in this game, they need Alabama in this game." Code red, America.
It is conceivable that even with an LSU loss, they could leave the polls with LSU a much weaker #1, an Alabama a very close #2 (or visa versa), and Arkansas still at 3rd. I just don't count on that. What is most likely, is that Arkansas passes LSU just slightly as LSU falls to #3, but just barely. With the computer polls still favoring LSU slightly over Bama in this scenario and Arkansas clearly 3rd, LSU would still finish #2 due to these computer polls. I haven't looked into the scenario for the computer polls in depth, but it appears that LSU would possibly be about a 2 1/4 or 2 1/2 in the computer polls (behind Okie State and splitting with Bama for 2nd/3rd) but ahead of 4th place Arkansas. If that is the case, that is huge for LSU. I'll crunch the numbers later just like I did with the Oklahoma State chances. So to recap for the scenario where LSU loses close to Arkansas, Human Polls: 1. Alabama 2. Arkansas 3. LSU Computer Polls 1. Oklahoma State 2. LSU 3. Alabama 4. Arkansas LSU finishes #2 in the BCS unless Arkansas has a decided advantage over LSU for 2nd in the human polls, which I do not think will be the case. I actually expect LSU to actually hold on to some first place votes in this scenario, as crazy as that may sound. Just look at what happened to Okie State losing, they fell only to 2nd in the computer polls and LSU was tied with them as of last week in those same computer polls (.980 to .980). So actually, I think LSU could drop to only .980 in the computer polls and have an even more decided advantage over Arkansas (who would be at .880). Thank you AD/Les Miles for scheduling Oregon.
