http://www.ndnation.com/boards/showpost.php?b=football;pid=41867;d=this There has been much focus the last few years on conference realignment, but that is the symptom, not the disease. The disease is greed, specifically TV revenue, and it looks to kill college football as we know it. Why? Next year we usher in the playoffs, which will be a huge revenue gusher in the future (as they inevitably expand). Meanwhile, the few profitable teams in big money conferences are becoming increasingly uncomfortable having their revenue stream affected or interrupted by the NCAA and its arbitrary rules Here is how I think it plays out. Some case, perhaps Manzell, is going to cause the major teams to revolt and demand at least a new “semi-pro” (my term) football division. They will police themselves, institute new eligibility rules, and hoard their resources. They will introduce a significant stipend, but only for the 45 or so scholarship athletes on the team. 45 you ask, what happened to the 85 scholarship limit of today? The football teams will no longer be university intercollegiate teams; they will affiliate with the university and share revenue, but be independent. In effect, they will license the school’s brand for their business endeavor. The big schools will introduce a two-tier eligibility system. 45 real student-athletes can apply for and receive a full ride scholarship plus stipend if they make the squad; 45 (or so) others may simply try-out for the team, receive room/board and some pay, but have no right to attend class. The upside is enormous for the schools: think of all the marginal students whom schools try to pretend are student-athletes; just put them on the team! If one of your student-athletes flunks out a semester, just move them from one type of eligibility to another. Limited Title IX issues: pick out 45 female athletes and give them the same benefits as the boys; the other 45 (or however many) football players aren’t students, so no issue. Schools get the revenue benefit of football programs without the headaches of the NCAA or too much worry about classes. Fans get what they want: semi-pro quality, with a veneer of old-school rah-rah sentimentality. ESPN gets ever more programming material. Tell me why this won’t happen. Of if you think it might, what should/will Notre Dame do? NDNATION FAN WRITES IN:
What you are calling for is a doomsday scenario. I agree college football is going to change but not as drastically as a semi-pro league with non students that are affiliated with Universities. To understand where things are headed, it is helpful to look at history and see what happened in 1977. That year, 64 major colleges formed an alliance because they believed Division 1 football was becoming watered down by smaller schools. The result was the formation of Division 1AA. The same thing is happening today. Larger, more powerful Universities feel they are controlled by smaller member schools who don't generate the revenue they do. It is the smaller schools that are blocking stipends and major changes in recruiting. The larger schools don't want to break away completely and create a new governing body. That would be a monumental endeavor. It makes more sense for them to remain in the NCAA in a separate division. What I believe you will see, in the very near future, is the formation of a major college football division that will include the five major conference schools (B1G Ten, SEC, ACC, Big Twelve, and PAC-12). In addition, you will see a few more schools that can afford it, join the new division. Notre Dame is an obvious school, but you will also see a handful of schools from the non BCS conferences that will commit to big time college football. The new division will operate under a new set of governing rules. Those rules will include a stipend and major changes in recruiting. The rich will get richer and eventually the college football playoff will expand to 8 teams -- the champion of the 5 major conferences and 3 wild cards. At the same time the smaller schools left behind will create a modest playoff of their own. While they won't be happy with the new division, those schools left behind will go along with it when the major schools agree to continue playing guaranteed games with them. The smaller schools don't have the leverage to stop the break away. If they do try to block it, the major schools will be forced into the nuclear option and break away from the NCAA -- no one wants that to happen.
