If one must have a guy it sure as fuck isn't Romney. Apparently you know me better than me, it seems...
I will try and give one more update on Monday but only if there is something newsworthy to report. This has been a wild and crazy election cycle with no shortages of drama. With only five days until election day, there is little chance that something will happen to change the game. Tomorrow there is a jobs report scheduled from the Bureau of Labor & Statistics that could be race-changing if it were to tilt heavily one way or another but there is little evidence that it will do so. Most economists are expecting about 125,000 jobs and for the unemployment rate to stay at 7.8 or, perhaps, tick up to 7.9. While this is not good news for the Obama camp, it isn't bad news either. It is rather ironic that there are conservative pastors who claim that Hurricane Sandy was a message from God regarding his displeasure over our acceptance of Gays and Lesbians, yet Hurricane Sandy looks like, in the most crass terms, the October Surprise for this election cycle. The storm essentially offered the President 3-4 days to look Presidential in front of a lot of cameras and microphones during a time so sensitive that his opponent had to basically stand down. Having Governor Chris Christie offer effusive praise of Obama's handling of the disaster relief effort didn't hurt anything either. Having grown up in Louisiana, I am under no illusions about the severity and seriousness of the challenges the residents of those states face, not to mention the emotional trauma of losing everything. I say this because it seems crass to talk about how the politics of such an event tilt but the reality is that it is the truth. Conservatives are still talking a good game by having the likes of Carl Rove and Dick Morris declare that Romney will win but there are cracks starting to appear in the armor. A GOP operative from Florida, leaked an internal memo late yesterday that stated, "The Democrats are cleaning our clock" in early voting and absentee voting. Paul Ryan has began using rather telling language in his stump speech, in effect stating, "it's not too late!" As the weekend passes I suspect there will be other cases and, perhaps, more glaring than the few I've mentioned here. I am still befuddled by the lengths the conservatives are willing to go to keep the "we are winning" message alive when the facts absolutely do not support their claims. When you dig a little deeper into the methodology and baseline demographics used in the few polls that have shown Romney ahead, you find that the Republicans are essentially asking us to suspend our sense of intellect and every mathematical skill you ever learned and to have faith that their guy is going to win. Demographically these polls believe that the country is more white than it was four years ago and it just isn't so. I suppose they have forgotten that we had a census two years ago and the truth is that the percentage of white voters has decreased by 2-4% every four years since 1988. In 2008 the electorate was 76% white and the Republicans now want us to believe that it will be 76% again. Secondly, in 2008 the electorate was divided as such: 39% democrats, 32% republicans, 29% independents. Since then the democrats have registered almost a million more voters than the Republicans yet the Republicans want us to believe that this time it will be more like 36% republicans, 35% democrats and 29% independents. Even with a high Republican turnout they will never reach that level. Needless to say it requires more faith than fact to accept the juice the Republicans are selling. Finally, my predictions for the election: Obama wins popular vote 50.5% to 49% with Gary Johnson getting the other half percent. Obama wins the electoral college 303-235. Final Poll Averages (avg of all polls conducted for the past seven days) OHIO, Obama 49-46 WISCONSIN, Obama 50-45 IOWA, Obama 50-45 VIRGINIA, Obama 48-47 NORTH CAROLINA, Romney 49-47 FLORIDA, Tied 48-48 COLORADO, Obama 48-47 NEVADA, Obama 50-45 NEW HAMPSHIRE, Obama 48-45
My prediction: People are idiots and we'll watch four more years of America erode. Unfortunately the scales favor those who contribute nothing to society. They're easily persuaded to vote for a handout even if it means they're being used. They'll NEVER improve their status but will be content living in the dark as long as they get their government cheese. Five decades of social programs and the lowest classes in quality of life categories are where?...still the lowest classes in quality of life categories. Keep digging that hole! I've tried to help through eduaction and money but now I'm at the point where my attitude is screw them. If you want to be a Democrat....go for it. Enjoy your miserable life while the white New England and California elite use and abuse you. They enjoy keeping you in the dark and you're too stupid to know the difference.
Silver now has Obama's odds of victory at 80% with 303 electoral votes. Obama has an 80% chance of carrying Ohio and a 65% chance of carrying Virginia. Romney has a 55% chance of carrying Florida and an 80% for carrying North Carolina. The GOP is starting to get desperate as this slips away from them.
I'm still amazed you two are predicting an Obama win when this was a well known fact that Obama was 2 terms back in 08. No amount of intelligent spin on these numbers will ever erase the fact of the mass amount of stupid people voting..
