Trump missed a beautiful follow up on the laptop deal. When Biden said he's never taken a dollar from another country, Trump should have said, that's true. Your son took their money, and then gave it to you, right, big guy?
I was hoping he would point to the whistleblower in the audience and say, Joe, tell your lies to the man with the proof.
So as many have said just publishing articles isn’t the best part of these threads. However they have a purpose. First is to share data and reasons for what is happening. Second is to convince you that the data is actually real and predictive. The most important purpose is also the toughest to get across. It’s to provide a tool to learn and adapt. Whatever you think of the man Trump’s presidency has done tremendous damage to the conservative cause and Republican Party. We’ve lost historic influence and moral platform. Under Trump we’ve lost more elective offices than even after Watergate. The party and movement is in the hands of radicals who are on a path to destruction. The party has alienated much more than 1/2 of the people and has no plan to recover. We need to remember that to win a majority we need to listen to the people and present a viable path to the future. Remember the big tent under Reagan? We need to take the same approach and win hearts and minds. Most people are centrist and moderate in their beliefs. They don’t was a crusade but simply peace and prosperity. They are willing to sacrifice when convinced. Thanks party needs to refocus it’s objective to be inclusive rather than exclusive. I said earlier that we’re screwed no matter who wins and yes I think Biden and the Democrats will leads us to disaster. That’s why we need to respond not with defensive bluster but with new ideas that follow our principles. Ideas like Reagan lead with. Ideas such as the Republican Congress Contract with America. Positive actions not lashing out like a wounded and cornered bear. We had better figure this out or we are truly watching the dimming of that shining city on the hill that Reagan envisioned.
Just some more data and analysis of how truly disastrous Nov 3 will be. (Photo by MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images) Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share via email Print A few hours ago I wrote a pieceexplaining in some detail why, if you take a 360-degree view of all of the polling data we’ve gathered over the last four years, the current view—that Donald Trump is losing by roughly 9 points—makes sense. Since the time of that writing there have been two developments that suggest we can take this conclusion further: Donald Trump is going to lose the presidency, probably by a historic margin. The first report is a new poll from Gallupthat asks the fundamental question: “Does President Donald Trump deserve to be reelected?” 56 percent say “no.” 43 percent say “yes.” That’s -13 for Trump. Only 1 percent of the sample had no opinion. This is death for an incumbent. By comparison: In the same poll, 60 percent of respondents said that their member of Congress deserves reelection and only 35 percent say their member does not. So get your head around that: On the two federal offices that every American can vote on two weeks from now, the average member of Congress is +25 on reelect; President Trump is -13. There is no skew, no shyness, no conspiracy that can overcome numbers like that. PODCAST Tim Miller on Trump's Bobulinski Gambit The only thing that could save Trump in this environment would be a COVID-driven black swan in turnout. And for Trump that would mean low turnout. Because the lower the turnout, the less representative the polls might be. The higher turnout, the greater the polls’ predictive power. Which brings us to the second item: FiveThirtyEight is predicting a total turnout between 144 million and 165 million votes—with their pin set at 154 million votes. It was difficult enough to see Trump winning with turnout under 140 million votes. But if we wind up north of 144 million it becomes basically impossible. One reason turnout matters is that the higher it goes, the less important the samples are—and thus the more reliable the polls are as indicators of reality. If 2020 turnout jumps 5 percent from 2016, it would be a lot. If it jumps 10 percent it would mean a Biden landslide. (There were 137 million votes in 2016.) If we get 154 million votes then Trump will be looking at the most resounding defeat of an incumbent president in—at least—40 years. Put those two numbers together—Trump -13 on reelect and turnout in the vicinity of 154 million—and you have a campaign that is effectively over. The only open question is the magnitude of Trump’s coming loss. But one thing is not in doubt: When America wakes up on November 4, Joe Biden will have earned more votes than any man who’s ever run for president. That doesn’t tell us anything about a Biden presidency, of course. You don’t get, say, an extra Supreme Court appointment just for getting more votes than any presidential candidate in American history. But it will be part of his mandate, part of the continuing realignment of American politics, and the most vociferous rejection of a sitting president in decades—and possibly in any of our lifetimes. The Democratic party will have a chance to rebuild America. And the Republican party will have defeat with dishonor.
What a crock of donkey dung. And the assumptions of going from 137 to 140, or 144 or 154 and the results are absurd. Lots of liberal heads will explode Nov 3rd. Sadly though, no one will really leave the country. Did you see Barack chasing a few scattered people down a street with his megaphone, pleading Joe's case?
