Well if we want to use History to help decide a wager. I look at conference strength as well. I wont bet this game to much emotion in the decision. But if I did looking at the Big 10 recently against the SEC in OOC and Bowls. Not so good for Big 10.. LSU and UF hammered the best team in the Big 10 back to back years. Since Penn State's last win over an SEC team. So I am looking more at recent history. Last year bowl records Big 10 - 1-6 SEC - 6-2
Then, of course, there's the other side of the argument: 1) The Big Ten has played in 24 bowl games against the mighty SEC this past decade (2000-2009) and we are 11-13 against the SEC... a one game swing.... dominance??? 2) Nine of those games were decided by 6 points or less. Seven of the Big Ten's 13 losses to the SEC were by 7 points or less. 3) To the SEC argument that these bowl games always match a top Big Ten team against a midpack SEC team: in 12 of the 24 bowl games, the two participating schools have had the exact same in-conference record (i.e., both were 6-2, 5-3, etc.). On 6 occasions, the SEC team had a better in-conference record and on 6 occasions the Big Ten team had a better in-conference record. 4) On only three occasions was the in-conference record more than a one game swing (i.e. a 6-2 team playing a 4-4 team)... those games were the 2002 Sugar Bowl (2001 season) where 7-1 Illinois got beat by a 5-3 in-conference LSU team; the 2002 Music City Bowl where a 3-5 Minnesota team beat a 5-3 Arkansas team (who had played in the SEC championship game); and in the 2006 CapOne game (2005 season) where a 5-3 Wisconsin team beat a 7-1 in-conference Auburn team. 5) Has tOSU stunk it up for the Big Ten? Yes. Four losses in the past 10 years, but we're talking conferences here, not teams, and the rest of the Big Ten is 11-9 versus the SEC in bowls this past decade. 6) On the argument that the SEC "always" has two BCS teams, so a lower team gets matched against a higher Big Ten team in the CapOne and Outback: In the past decade, the Big Ten has had two BCS teams "one more time" than the SEC has put up two teams. 7) In the 24 games there have been four blowouts, where one team won by 20 point or more. Iowa has two of them: 37-17 over Florida and 31-10 over South Carolina. 8) 19 of the 24 games were played in Florida or New Orleans, none were played in Big Ten territory. just sayin'
I knew that post would get the ire of the our Big 10 friends ;-) Had to spice things up a bit, getting a bit boring around here.
What does the confereence have to do with 1 single team? For example USC and the PAC 10. The best way to judge a TEAM is by the way they play, not how other teams in the conference play. Penn State usually for the most part plays solid defense against the SEC as I have shown. Now if you want to use an example on how LSU and Florida exploded against the likes of Ohio State I guess I can't see the since of it but heck while your at it, why don't you just take a look at Ohio State in bowl games versus the SEC. They are a mere 0-9 since 1977, but heck, we'll use them for the sake of discussion. They give up a whopping 29 Pts per also...hmmm...Nowhere did I say anything about a wager. All I said was I don't expect to see a blowout
Well I do think when you look at records you DO have to look at the overall conference. Two things help determine a true test of a team, how that team did over the year against opponents (Conference) and that conferences strength against OOC (Bowl games and regular season) And granted there is a long history. But recent history has shown (Within the last 2 years) that the Big 10 has come up woefully short in OOC and Bowl Games. Yes Ohio State is one team, but that one team has won the Big 10 the last 5 years in a row. Hence they are the flagship of the Big 10. Sure Michigan beat Florida a few years ago so anything can happen. But recent history dictates the Big 10 hasn't done so well on the big stages and when their flag ship program and 5 time champion has routinely gotten thumped in the Big games. Ohio State lost to USC at home and USC was horrible this year. Yes it probably wont be a blowout. Heck as this thread indicates Vegas thinks LSU is going to lose. So to be honest if LSU wins it would be an upset. Hey I am not touting LSU. Lord knows we have struggled the last two years as well we are 500 in SEC play. SO yeh it wont be a blowout. Again last two years the Big 10 has been (all out of conference games against quality opponents IE not Delaware State or ULM) 1-6 in Bowl Games 3-5 in Bowl Games SEC 7-2 6-2
you cant use bowl games to compare conferences unless they mean something. obviously most do not. too often, one team does not want to be there. so compare the conferences by reg season and NC matchups. obviously the sec is up in the NC matchup. not sure about reg season.
You are right and there is no denying tOSU and Penn State (of late) didn't come close to matching up in their BIG bowl games. It HAS hurt the Big Ten as a conference, and until we win a couple of BCS matchups, our reputation is going to struggle. My point is only that the rest of the conference has matched up quite well against the SEC, so the "conference sucks" dialogue is somewhat overstated. The PAC 10, btw, is the only conference with a winning record against every other BCS conference this decade. Yet we all tend to quickly discard them as USC and the 9 dwarfs. Nobody said the world of college football is fair.... right?
PSUs kick coverage is very bad. That is one way LSU probably will showcase their speed. Going over the top for the most part should be somewhat a problem for LSU simply because PSU DBs play so far off the WRs. They play strictly a zone defense so there will be gaps. PSU gives up a lot of passes right behind the LBs drop and also about 10-15 yards down the sideline. Those are the areas I see PSU having a problem with on defense. All running yards will be hard to come by. I haven't watched much of LSU this year to know exactly what their offensive strengths are compared to PSUs weaknesses. I suspect LSU to score between 10-20 but not much more. That's just my opinion though
clearly. go with bcs bowls. the ones both teams usually give a shiit about. i think i posted the record before but have no recollection where the conferences stand in comparison. although it doesnt apply here. joepa is the one dude everyone should fear given a month to prepare. miles is following in his footsteps.
For the record I never said "The Conference Sucks" I do think Pound for Pound the SEC is the most vicious conference in football. FullSpeed, as for LSU scoring 10-20. Around here you wont get much argument. If this year is any indication scoring 20 against tackling dummies was a stretch ;-) So to answer your question on LSU strength? Well they have talent at the skill positions in spades..... Aside from that.. Well... Hmmmm.... We don't really have any this year on offense. and that is confusing because their talent they should be explosive. But for some reason, they have struggled mightily in most games. So yeh, want a wager bet the under in this game
