The secret to picking bowl games is to see who's "glad" to be there and who backed into one. In this case the nod would go to Oklahoma. If this seems hard to imagine I'll cite Utah beatibng Bama in the Sugar Bowl. Bama had their sites on a National title that year too. The "let down" accompanied with the Saban-grind on the players could be a difference. I'm not even sure how many players from Bama are entering the draft but playing not to get hurt is something we'd like to think doesn't exist but it has to factor in with an essentially meaningless bowl.
If no distractions, Bama beats OU easily. Saban goes to UT, then OU wins.... hell, we all win. Then there's Utah, so yeah, OU could win.