I forgot Peterson; plus J. Taylor has been working at WR at the LSU camps. So that makes 2 WR commits already (although both could change position), plus Tolliver puts us at 3. Add in DeAndre Brown & we're at 4. I just can't see us turning down Surrency... regardless of what Julio Jones is thinking.
We have to keep a spot open for Julio Jones, and that will mean we can't load up on receivers until we know what he's doing. Even if Surrency is equal to Jones (which I doubt), Jones is the bigger recruit because we'd be taking him from Bama. Surrency probably ends up out of the conference if we don't get him. This is why I don't think we'll take 4 commitments at WR until we know whether or not Julio is coming here. I'd rather lose out on BOTH Jones and Surrency rather than voluntarily close out Jones because we took too many recruits. He's special, and I do not want to be facing that dude year after year. Losing Surrency to FSU, Colorado, or USC or wherever just isn't as big of a blow. Now, if Jones tells the coaches that he isn't coming here, then we can open up the flood gates a little. My educated guess is that we're looking at Tolliver, holding a scholarship for Jones as long as he stays interested, and will take one additional commitment out of Brown, Fuller, Jarboe, etc. until Jones is either in or out for good. Jhyryn is another big academic question mark (though oddly Brandon seems not to be). I think he also projects more as a DB, though I could be mistaken. Chances are, though, he's headed for JUCO.
True, I didn't think of it that way. There are other factors as well. Surrency is JUCO, but it also looks like we stand a much better chance with Surrency... So, you don't think we consider the academic standing of the 4th WR commit in whether we accept a 5th? If Jhyryn is expected not to make it, Tolliver may not make it, and we get a commit from say DeAndre who probably won't make it, do we go after one more? That's a tough situation. You hate to not accept a commitment from a guy like DeAndre, but maybe you have to if you don't think he can get qualified...
Keeping in mind that I do not have any access to the inner workings of Les Miles' recruiting war room other than what is posted to message boards and web sites, here's how I would look at it: 1) Assume that Jones is really as good as everyone says. 2) Assume that Tolliver, Brown, Fuller, and that kid out of Virginia whose name I forget are all about equal and are a significantly behind Jones. 3) Assume that Surrency is a phenomenal athlete, but has a long way to go to learn the game considering he hasn't been playing it long. I would a) hold a scholarship for Jones as long as he stays interested in us, and I would make him the #1 priority of the season. b) take a commitment from Tolliver almost regardless of his academic situation, but if he drags his feet into January/February, maybe I start looking elsewhere, especially if his academics don't look promising. Tolliver, being an in-state guy, has to take precedence over an equal out-of-state guy. Go ahead and take a risk on him with his academics. c) take a good, long look at Brown's academics, and probably hold off accepting a commitment from him until I was convinced he had at least a 50/50 shot of qualifying. In the meantime, take a commitment from any one of those other guys who want to give it if their academics look good. I don't think I'd be turning down those other guys right now in hopes of getting Brown. We simply can't afford to lose more guys to academics at this position (assuming Benton goes JUCO). If Benton's in the fold, maybe we can be a little more risky with Brown.
Just my opinion, but I think you are wrong about us holding a place for Julio Jones. He's Bama's biggest recruit since Andre Smith, probably bigger publicity wise, and everyone at Bama wants Saban to look brilliant for keeping him in state. Don't underestimate the affect of a friendly call from the Alabama Governor's office..
Well, the landscape for WR recruiting just changed dramatically. DeAngelo Peterson opened his recruiting back up and is now a "soft commitment". Most of what I've said about WR recruiting on this thread is, to use a phrase popularized by members of the Bush administration, "no longer operative."
