Climate Skeptics See 'Smoking Gun' in Researchers' Leaked E-Mails

Discussion in 'Free Speech Alley' started by Sourdoughman, Nov 20, 2009.

  1. SabanFan

    SabanFan The voice of reason

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    Self explanatory

    Read the thread. It's all there.
     
  2. Texas_Tiger

    Texas_Tiger Tiger Stuck in Aggie Land

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    Read the quote. It said "So why in little more than a decade after the global cooling scare of the mid-1970s was the IPCC certain about human-induced global warming?
    Senator Dianne Feinstein of California has introduced a measure for government oversight as part of the CO2 trading. She said:

    [FONT=&quot]This landmark legislation will not only significantly reduce our nation’s carbon footprint, it will also generate tremendous economic potential. In fact, new carbon markets – with annual values of approximately $300 billion – are expected to emerge once Congress establishes a cap-and-trade program for greenhouse gas emissions.[/FONT]

    “[FONT=&quot]Over roughly the past 15 years, the United States has invested heavily in scientific research, monitoring, data management, and assessment for climate change analyses to build a foundation of knowledge for decision making. To date, more than $20 billion of research funding has been provided by U.S. agencies and departments.[/FONT]”

    I see your memory is as selective as the IPCC's
     
  3. Texas_Tiger

    Texas_Tiger Tiger Stuck in Aggie Land

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    Once again selective memory. :dis:

    Stephen Schneider co-authored a paper in 1971 'Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols - Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate"

    Here are the opening paragraphs of that paper -

    [FONT=Arial, Geneva][SIZE=+1]ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE AND AEROSOLS:
    Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate.[/SIZE]
    [/FONT]

    [FONT=Arial, Geneva]Abstract. Effects on the global temperature of large increases in carbon dioxide and aerosol densities in the atmosphere of Earth have been computed. It is found that, although the addition of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere does increase the surface temperature, the rate of temperature increase diminishes with increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. For aerosols, however, the net effect of increase in density is to reduce the surface temperature of Earth. Becuase of the exponential dependence of the backscattering, the rate of temperature decrease is augmented with increasing aerosol content. An increase by only a factor of 4 in global aerosol background concentration may be sufficient to reduce the surface temperature by as much as 3.5 deg.K. If sustained over a period of several years, such a temperature decrease over the whole globe is believed to be sufficient to trigger an ice age.[/FONT]
    [FONT=Arial, Geneva]The rate at which human activities may be inadvertently modifying the climate of Earth has become a problem of serious concern 1 . In the last few decades the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere appears to have increased by 7 percent 2 . During the same period, the aerosol content of the lower atmosphere may have been augmented by as much as 100 percent 3 .[/FONT]
    [FONT=Arial, Geneva]How have these changes in the composition of the atmosphere affected the climate of the globe? More importantly, is it possible that a continued increase in the CO2 and dust content of the atmosphere at the present rate will produce such large-scale effects on the global temperature that the process may run away, with the planet Earth eventually becoming as hot as Venus (700 deg. K.) or as cold as Mars (230 deg. K.)?[/FONT]
    [FONT=Arial, Geneva]We report here on the first results of a calculation in which separate estimates were made of the effects on global temperature of large increases in the amount of CO2 and dust in the atmosphere. It is found that even an increase by a factor of 8 in the amount of CO2, which is highly unlikely in the next several thousand years, will produce an increase in the surface temperature of less than 2 deg. K.[/FONT]
    [FONT=Arial, Geneva]However, the effect on surface temperature of an increase in the aerosol content of the atmosphere is found to be quite significant. An increase by a factor of 4 in the equilibrium dust concentration in the global atmosphere, which cannot be ruled out as a possibility within the next century, could decrease the mean surface temperature by as much as 3.5 deg. K. If sustained over a period of several years, such a temperature decrease could be sufficient to trigger an ice age!

    [/FONT]
    He is now a member of the UN IPCC and is a leading advocate warning that the Earth is facing catastrophic global warming.

    Stanford University is doing anything it can to censor his flip flop from a coming ice age proponent in the 1970's to his current advocacy of man-made global warming fears.
     
  4. Bandit88

    Bandit88 Old Enough to Know Better

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    Revisionism will be a hallmark of the digital age. Manmade global warming will be the training ground.

    You don't have to delete information to revise it. You just have to put so much disinformation out there that folks can't figure out what you originally said (because you've also trained them to not think for themselves and to have a 90second attention span on a good day....)
     
  5. red55

    red55 curmudgeon Staff Member

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    I'm not going to have a discussion with an Email. I wanted to know why you think it.
     
  6. red55

    red55 curmudgeon Staff Member

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    There are 170MB of emails, so like most people, I've only read excerpts cherrypicked by the critics, which are not always in context nor definitely authenticated. But I will keep an open mind about them. Most of the bloggers out there have an agenda but this will eventualy play out in the scientific press.

    I would agree. In fact, I'd be soon expecting some proper challenges in the major journals if others can document more accurate data that contradicts them.

    It would be disturbing indeed if scientists at a major research institute were falsifying data. I believe only a handful of papers have so far been implicated, but if the allegations are borne out it would cast a pall over these scientists’ other work and possibly work done by other scientists which was based on the disputed data.

    My main objections here is the notion that this disputed data set somehow invalidates all climatological research conclusions, even though most of them are not related to CRU research at all. The bloggers may be alleging that this story means that climate change itself is now "exposed as a fraud", but the scientific community is not going to follow suit.

    Sure they do. In informal conversations, people say all sorts of things that they will not stake their professional reputation on in their published conclusions.
     
  7. red55

    red55 curmudgeon Staff Member

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    Good find :thumb:, but an example of what I was saying. This is one of the rare 70's technical papers that ever suggested that global cooling might result from aerosols and that CO2 would have only a minor role. But he qualified this suggestion (it didn't rise to a prediction) very carefully.

    In his 1977 book, The Genesis Strategy: Climate and Global Survival, Schneider was already backing off that position and wrote that CO2 was likely to raise temperature beyond whatever cooling effect aerosols may cause and noted that most current evidence increasingly suggested that a warming effect was occurring.

    That year in Nature, Schneider criticized a popular science book The Weather Conspiracy: The Coming of the New Ice Age that predicted an imminent Ice Age.
     
  8. gumborue

    gumborue Throwin Ched

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    i hate to say it, but much of this stuff occurs in my field of science, too.

    ive not read much about this story, but it would seem less significant than most here think because i assume there is substantial redundancy in this area of research---numerous labs, in numerous places, independently generating data.
    the dogma of science doesnt turn easily or quickly. it takes more than work (even if it is massive) from one group to become part of the lexicon.

    griping about editors/reviewers is ubiquitous. unfortunately, so is improper use of data. very few manufacture it---if the conclusions are important, they are eventually outed. some/many cherry-pick to fit the story. many improperly analyze data unknowingly--not many really know statistics, and they are statisticians, not geologists or bacteriologists.
     
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  9. SabanFan

    SabanFan The voice of reason

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    I remain unconvinced that they don't have an agenda, which is to show that climate change is caused by humans.
     
  10. gumborue

    gumborue Throwin Ched

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    i wasnt trying to convince you. i think you are right about many of them although it depends on how you define "agenda". i dont think any of them do not believe it but push it anyway for career/political purposes. most scientists, even the best ones, usually come to believe something, based on their data, then try to convince everyone else. some even believe it so much they inject themselves with HIV to prove it doesnt cause AIDS, or injest helicobacter pylori to prove it causes gastric ulcers.

    i think you underestimate the amount of research that goes in to establishing any scientific consensus. and these are typically very cut-throat, competitive people. they try their best to pick apart every one else's research.
     

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