Calling islstl for analysis --- it was cool 3 years ago

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by WestCoastTiger, Nov 23, 2010.

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  1. WestCoastTiger

    WestCoastTiger Founding Member

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    First, let me say it's hard to believe we are even in this discussion.

    So to our math genius, who do we need to win and lose this weekend and what will it look like from a BCS perspective? i.e. Oregon wins, Auburn loses, we win, or Oregon Wins, Aub wins vs. Alabama but loses to SC.

    Another scenario if we beat Arky and either Oregon or Auburn lose can we jump both Boise and TCU?

    What games are important in moving the standings?

    I remember staying up to watch the Hawaii game I believe 3 years ago. When they won I believe it was the clincher for us. Crazy.
     
    WestCoastTiger, Nov 23, 2010
    #1
  2. Berge

    Berge Founding Member

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    The perfect storm would be a Boise, Stanford, and Wisconsin loss this week. Then have UO, Auburn lose next week.

    Wisc is the biggest wildcard right now. If Auburn, Boise, Stanford, and Oregon all lost this week. Wisconsin would get a LOT of #1/#2 votes because of how impressive they have looked the last few weeks (plus they would be Big 10 champs).

    I am not even entertaining the idea that TCU could even possibly lose to 1-10 New Mexico.
     
    Berge, Nov 23, 2010
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  3. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Here is what I feel strongly about:

    If either Oregon or Auburn stay undefeated, and either TCU or Boise St remains undefeated (TCU WILL BE UNDEFEATED, btw), then LSU has no chance at sneaking in over either Boise State or TCU. The voters will pit one of the non-AQ teams vs a BCS Conference team (Oregon/Boise State or Auburn/Boise State most likely if both of the top 2 teams don't win out). Obviously if both Oregon and Auburn win out, we're set and we are in for a doozy of a championship game.

    Where it gets interesting for LSU is if both Oregon and Auburn both lose a game. And there is even chatter that all it "could" take Auburn to do is lose just 1 game (maybe even the Bama game, at that) and LSU could be considered being "bumped" high enough to avoid the oh so dreaded Boise State vs TCU matchup. A lot of that may depend on the allegations about Cam and whether that has cooled by Dec. 5th. Voters can opt out on Auburn and save face a year or two down the line of a potential stripping of the championship for Auburn. Lots of things in play, a lot of them psychological and very much political, and not necessarily anything to do with what goes on out on the field of play.

    If it's a real BLACK FRIDAY for the BCS folks (Auburn/Oregon/Boise State all lose), LSU is probably sitting at #2 in the BCS come this Sunday evening behind #1 TCU.

    And what's the likelihood? Alabama is a 3-4 point favorite, Nevada has lost to Boise State the past 3 years by an average of only 6 points, and that game is being played at Nevada. Arizona beating Oregon is the difficult one. Can Arizona duplicate what Cal did defensively? Mr. Stoops is known for defense.
     
    islstl, Nov 24, 2010
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  4. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    You probably can't entertain the idea of Wisconsin losing to a Northwestern team who lost their MVP QB a couple of weeks ago as well.

    Which means a #3 ranked LSU (behind TCU and Wisconsin if everyone else loses) would be a #2 ranked BCS team.
     
    islstl, Nov 24, 2010
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  5. LEGACY TIGER

    LEGACY TIGER Defy Yourself

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    There are, in my opinion, really only 2 ways LSU makes it to the BCSNCG, and those are for everyone ahead of us to lose, mainly Ore and AU; or for the AU story to blow wide open and AU gets disqualified to play in the SECCG opening the door for us to play in it. We then win out against Ark and then USCe. Those are the only 2 sure fire ways I see us getting there. Unfortunately I don't see any of it happening, that is unless something happens this weekend that could prompt the AU story to blow up.
     
    LEGACY TIGER, Nov 24, 2010
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  6. paducahmichael

    paducahmichael Tiger Band Class of '73

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    Y'all are giving me a headache...too much to think about.

    Think I'll wait till next Sunday to consider "what happened" as opposed to "what might happen."

    Meanwhile, I'm off to find some Tylenol...
     
    paducahmichael, Nov 24, 2010
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  7. geauxtigs

    geauxtigs Tigers Forever

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    :geaux: Guess it's all fun to talk about and all, but if we don't take care of business Sat. in Little Rock it won't mean a whole lot. The Hogs are gonna be tough in "The Rock" and LSU will need to be clicking on all cylinders to win this game. Gonna be a rough one for sure. :LSU231:
     
    geauxtigs, Nov 24, 2010
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  8. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Imagine the tension of that game if 3 of the top 4 BCS teams lose on Friday.

    Yikes!

    I would lose my voice by the end of that game.

    I remember losing my voice for the West Virginia/Pittsburgh game back in 2007. This one ref was blatantly calling the game in favor of the Mountaineers but to no avail. The famous "jammed thumb" game, in which Rich Rod mistakenly pulled out his ever dangerous Pat White at QB because of a the injury late in the first quarter and didn't put him back in until almost midway in the 4th when he got desperate. It was too little too late.
     
    islstl, Nov 24, 2010
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  9. paducahmichael

    paducahmichael Tiger Band Class of '73

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    Oh yeah - that would turn a "nail-biter" into something much more powerful. I am not sure that I would be able stand the excitement!

    This is the time of the season when things do get VERY interesting!
     
    paducahmichael, Nov 24, 2010
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  10. P&G_wheelz007

    P&G_wheelz007 Football anyone?

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    We will know Friday night if we have a shot at a BCSNCG.

    We need 2 of these 3 games to go our way:

    Alabama over Auburn
    Arizona over Oregon
    Nevada over Boise St.

    Again, if 2 of these teams lose we have a real shot. We'll need to beat Arkansas, of course, and then hope the voters move us up.

    Other games that will help our computer ranking:

    Tennessee over Kentucky
    Florida over FSU
    West Virginia over Pitt
    UNC over Duke
    Vandy over Wake Forest
    ULM over ULL


    Again, we'll know before Saturday's kickoff if we have a shot.

    :crystal::geaux::crystal::geaux::crystal:
     
    P&G_wheelz007, Nov 24, 2010
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