California and the desert west water issues are many faceted. I'm going to ignore over population and undisciplined use for the moment because it is something that we could control if we wanted to as a society. They are the reason the drought is such a problem but not the cause. California is in a drought a bad one....but is it just part of a natural cycle or has global warming made it worse? When will it end and why? There are many studies that show the southwest has long cycles lasting decades or more where droughts occur more often. [We have a similar cycle in the Atlantic hurricane season. There are approximately 20 cycles between years with fewer and weaker hurricanes and those with more stronger storms.] The west is in a dry period now. It may last a long time. Even so the dry periods do have wet cycles. One of the controls is the La Niña/El Nino cycle. These last only up to a couple of years each. Right now we are moving out of the dry part of the cycle to the wet one. I recently read in WeatherUnderground next year should break the dry period in California. As to global warming there is no doubt it's happening but from what I've read there isn't enough knowledge and data to pin effects on specific events.
It is both. The existence of natural cycles does not invalidate the existence of global warming. The fact that the cycles are getting shorter and more severe suggests that global warming is exacerbating the problem. Like what? There is plenty of data to show the trends and demonstrate the effects of those trends.
Taking a slice of my comment to make an argument when there is none Red? That is just my point. Natural cycles short and long exist and did before AGW. They also create noise in the data of AGW. Same as the two consecutive cold winters in the east. Does that mean AGW is false? NO, NO , NO!!!! Also at some point we will be able to determine what portion of these natural cycles is affected by AGW. Right now we don't. We need more data and I'm sure we'll get it. You're doing what you condem in others, stating something is fact (that the cycles are getting shorter and more severe) that is not yet known. These cycles have always interacted with each other and at times exaserbated or eased the peak and duration of the short term portion. You can't say exactly what is affecting what at this time. We may be able to in hindsight in a few years but can't say so now.
It is at this point that the debate gets bogged down. Both sides of the debate point to different statistics. The data is too complicated for the lay person. I believe AWG certainly does have an impact but I don't know how much. Now each side points to the other and calls them liars. It has become politics. What I do think is there are simple arguments the AWG'ers can make that pushes the lay person to their direction without them knowing it. Practical applications. We would all love solar panels on our homes. It reduces our electrical cost but is also reduces demand on fossil fuels. I am beginning to see these on many homes in the Caribbean. Sun is plentiful but electricity is expensive. Pollution if very measurable. Pesticides are killing beneficial insects that pollinate crops and they are suffering from it. A push for more organic controls helps the beneficial population. That is easy data to show. Rain comes and goes. The ability to collect and conserve that water is very important. I attached 2 rain barrels to my gutters last year. It got my gardens through the water restrictions. (now they are spilling over). These are a only a few examples. It is hard for people to visualize global impacts. If govt can get people to think locally and show the benefit to them, they won't even know it.
I commented on the part of your argument that I think needs clarification. I let stand what I agree with. AGW deniers (and I am not calling you one) have long used the argument that global warming is just part of the natural cycle of climate change. AGW is something very different and it affects the natural cycles negatively. Perhaps you can't say so now, but climate experts over the world do say so and have documented much evidence to prove it. You should read the IPCC report. AGW deniers have begun to move away from saying AGW is bullshit to claiming that there is just not enough data to reach any conclusions . . . but that is not true. There will always be a need for better data and we still have things to learn about AGW and all of science. But the evidence already existing is overwhelming. What I said is true, Winston. California's drought is part of a cycle of drought in the Western USA that has been exacerbated by anthropogenic global warming. http://www.nwf.org/Wildlife/Threats...rming-is-Causing-Extreme-Weather/Drought.aspx http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warmin...t-climate-change-connection.html#.VV8w6GBivJE http://www.theguardian.com/environm...2013/dec/23/global-warming-intensify-droughts http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n1/full/nclimate1633.html http://www.epa.gov/climatestudents/impacts/signs/droughts.html
I have been to LA 4 times in the last year. It has rained every time I have been there. I think the CA government should give me a high paid rain dancer contract for my services. It would only cost them $2.5 million a year, plus expenses.
