59-34 ... Wrote a poem about it ... Joe Burrow Balls-to-the-Wall for SIXTY MINS (Not 45) in his Swan Song Creating that last perfect MASTERPIECE ... With Lawrence trying to keep pace in the boat race Over 100 is possible ... Nuts to pick under here ... https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/ Opening line -6 ... Current line -6 ... isolated -5.5 action (MGM) Over under -70 ... Playing -69.5 I’d almost say OVER is a 100% certainty but fear Clemson Quitting so the -6 bet is the SURE THING ...
https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/ Far left column ... Opening -6 Next column to right ... Consensus -5.5 Other columns are the present line at that betting establishment
So this baffles me. I thought the whole point of the spread was to get 50-50. So if it’s 90-10, why the hell wouldn’t they move the spread?
90% of the bettors bet on LSU 10% of the bettors include the Big Corporate Bets in the hundreds of millions Evens out the $$$
Honestly, it's a good thing for LSU. It means Vegas thinks it'll be a touchdown, but all the other sports betting Assuming that the sharps actually are betting LSU at the line it currently is. That's not overly clear because Vegas really doesn't like people knowing that kind of thing. Vegas basically never moves a line past significant breakpoints (6.5 in this game's case). Doing so is a great way to lose a ton of money no matter the game's outcome. They'd rather just trust their model and hope the sharps are wrong.
Because middle betting is a common betting strategy and Vegas trusts that their model is better than the field. As an example of middle betting, let's say you have a model that predicts LSU will win by 7. The line opens up at LSU by 3.5. You bet on LSU. Later on, the line moves to LSU by 10.5. You then bet on Clemson. If LSU wins by 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, or 10, you win both bets. If Clemson wins you take a fairly small loss. If LSU wins by more you take a small loss. Obviously the actual numbers matter a lot here, but this is why odds makers try to not make lines too mobile. When they're too mobile, there's a large margin where both sides win and Vegas loses money. Better to just lose big some of the time. Another aspect is that you have to remember that most of the raw dollars that go through betting are big companies with sophisticated models. These companies will bet millions on a 3 point discrepancy because they have a lot of money to work with. If you're an odds maker the last thing you want is for all these guys to bet the exact same way and end up being right, and trying to balance the books is a great way to let that happen.
