BCS Remaining Schedules/Pecking Order

1. LSU .9734
Western Kentucky, @ Ole Miss, Arkansas, SEC CG (Georgia most likely, otherwise South Carolina)

2. Alabama .9591
@ Mississippi State, Georgia Southern, @Auburn (Georgia most likely, otherwise South Carolina)

3. Oklahoma State .9310
@ Texas Tech, @ Iowa State, Oklahoma

4. Stanford .8615
@ Oregon State, Oregon, California, Notre Dame, Pac 12 CG (Arizona State most likely, otherwise UCLA)

5. Boise State .8522
TCU, @ San Diego State, Wyoming, New Mexico

6. Oklahoma.7760
@ Baylor, vs Iowa State, @ Oklahoma State

7. Arkansas .7033
Tennessee, Mississippi State, @LSU, SEC CG (Georgia most likely, otherwise South Carolina)

8. Oregon .6916
@ Stanford, USC, Oregon State

9. Clemson .5961
Wake Forest, @ North Carolina State, @ South Carolina, ACC CG (most likely Virginia Tech or Georgia Tech)

10. Virginia Tech .5683
@ Georgia Tech, North Carolina, @ Virginia, ACC CG (most likely Clemson or Wake Forest)







My Pecking Order for BCS Title Game (posted this before but made a couple of big changes):

1. Undefeated SEC Champ (13-0) LSU
This one goes without saying, even though the computer polls may be split between an undefeated SEC champ and an undefeated Oklahoma State.

2. Undefeated Big 12 Champ Oklahoma State (12-0)
Stanford would have the benefit of an extra win with their Conference CG, but the schedule down the stretch is just too impressive to overlook for Oklahoma State as well as the overall "body of work" (get ready to hear that phrase over and over). The computers in the end will have Oklahoma State #1 over anyone else except a 13-0 SEC team. Add to the fact the genius in scheduling Oklahoma on the same last weekend others are playing their Conference CGs, namely Stanford. Oklahoma being near top 5 helps seal the deal.

3. Undefeated PAC 12 Champ Stanford (13-0)
Arizona State losing yesterday hurts Stanford's chances of ever jumping past Oklahoma State. They may in fact be playing a horrible UCLA team instead. That would be disastrous. Ultimately, Oklahoma State could be playing a top 5 Oklahoma team that same weekend. In the end, the computer component falls short, even though the voters may give Stanford a slight edge over Oklahoma State.

4. SEC Champ with only 1 loss (12-1)
This scenario likelier to happen to LSU with Arkansas on their schedule. I think they would jump all other 1 loss teams that final weekend. Count Arkansas in this same discussion if that scenario somehow plays out (highly unlikely).

5. Alabama (11-1)
The only blemish is the loss to the #1 ranked team in the country. The computer polls would favor a 1 loss LSU or Bama team over any other 1 loss team from another conference.

6. LSU losing the SEC CG (12-1)
This one is the most difficult to predict. It depends on so many factors, a Georgia or South Carolina team at or near the top 10 and if the game came down to the last few plays. Hard to think Bama would be in over with only 1 loss but the loss at the end of the year would maybe be too much to overcome.

7. Pac 12 Champ Oregon (12-1)
Oregon's about to get huge computer poll boosts with arguably the toughest schedule going down the stretch (Stanford, USC, Arizona State/UCLA in CG). Arizona State losing yesterday hurt.

8. Big 12 Champ Oklahoma (11-1)
Oklahoma's schedule is tough enough (Baylor and Oklahoma State) for them to catch Boise State in the computer polls. That leaves the human polls to make a choice. Oklahoma beating an undefeated and 2nd ranked Oklahoma State on the last weekend of the season (Dec 3) pushes them over the top past undefeated Boise State.

9. Undefeated Boise State (12-0)
Their poor SOS is the killer here and the perception of a cupcake schedule. Having beaten only Georgia and TCU and having troubles beating Air Force all work against Boise State. The wins don't appear to be as dominating as years past either. Georgia and TCU must win out. The real clincher would be for a 2 loss Georgia to somehow beat the LSU/Bama winner and become SEC champs. That's so unlikely but that scenario would boost Boise State the most. Why Boise State couldn't schedule TCU on the last weekend of the season is a read head scratcher, given the fact they have been in this boat before.

10. Arkansas (11-1)
Another tough team to place, but with wins over a top 10 South Carolina as well as a potentially undefeated and top ranked LSU (and no worse than 4th ranked), Arkansas places ahead of some other BCS conference champs.

11. ACC Champ Virginia Tech (12-1)
The image of the ACC being one of the weakest BCS conferences behind only the Big East hurts the most in this scenario. Virginia Tech's loss is a bad one (3 touchdowns to Clemson), but their saving grace is being able to beat that very same Clemson team in the ACC CG and atone for the loss. Ultimately, I don't think the computers will be strong enough. Clemson winning out obviously helps out Virginia Tech here.

12. Pac 12 Champ Stanford (12-1)
The loss obviously would come late in the season (since it won't happen this week with a game vs Oregon State looming), and I think too late to recover from. Again, Arizona State losing hurt Stanford in that PAC 12 CG looks less and less attractive now. Too little, too late most likely.

13. ACC Champ Clemson (12-1)
Clemson lost their game to an un-ranked Georgia Tech by 2 touchdowns. The ACC stigma being a weaker conference as stated before does Clemson no good here.

14. Oklahoma State (11-1)
This loss is probably on the last weekend of the season to Oklahoma. The timing could not be worse. If the loss is to Texas Tech and then the Cowboys beat Oklahoma on the last weekend of the season, then you can bump them up to where Oklahoma is on this list (#8).

15. Big 10 Champ Penn State (12-1)
Nothing exciting about either of these two teams, especially Penn State (a really weak 1 loss team).

 

Brad Edwards has a writeup on his pecking order for the BCS but it's a stupid ESPN Insider article. If someone has access, maybe give a synopsis of what he said. I presume he only took into account the first few cases I presented here.

Projecting the BCS bowl picture - CFB - ESPN

The blurb we get to see implies that he thinks LSU losing to Bama puts them #3 in the pecking order above undefeated Stanford and only behind undefeated Oklahoma State possibly? Hard to tell if that's what he means.

 

Thanks vhouse and cwatson.

Vhouse, my recommendation is not to quote the original post since it's so lengthy. Makes sifting through this thread much harder.

 

I still believe this is the pecking order:

1. Undefeated SEC Champ (13-0) LSU
This one goes without saying, even though the computer polls may be split between an undefeated SEC champ and an undefeated Oklahoma State.

2. Undefeated Big 12 Champ Oklahoma State (12-0)
Stanford would have the benefit of an extra win with their Conference CG, but the schedule down the stretch is just too impressive to overlook for Oklahoma State as well as the overall "body of work" (get ready to hear that phrase over and over). The computers in the end will have Oklahoma State #1 over anyone else except a 13-0 SEC team. Add to the fact the genius in scheduling Oklahoma on the same last weekend others are playing their Conference CGs, namely Stanford. Oklahoma being near top 5 helps seal the deal.

3. Undefeated PAC 12 Champ Stanford (13-0)
One caveat to the Oklahoma State scenario is the fact that Stanford's likely opponent in the Pac 12 CG is going to be Arizona State, whose schedule is light and could mean running the table and being somewhere near the top 10. Still, Oklahoma State could be playing a top 5 Oklahoma team that same weekend. In the end, the computer component falls short, even though the voters may give Stanford a slight edge over Oklahoma State.

4. SEC Champ with only 1 loss (12-1)
This scenario likelier to happen to LSU with Arkansas on their schedule. The only question here is if South Carolina would run the table, could they get into the top 2. I think they would jump all other 1 loss teams that final weekend. Count Arkansas in this same discussion if that scenario somehow plays out (highly unlikely).

5. Alabama (11-1)
The only blemish is the loss to the #1 ranked team in the country. It assumes a close loss within 1 score. The computer polls would favor a 1 loss LSU or Bama team over any other 1 loss team from another conference.

6. Undefeated LSU losing the SEC CG (12-1)
This one is the most difficult to predict. It depends on so many factors, including if it's an 11-1 top 8 South Carolina team and if the game came down to the last few plays.

7. Pac 12 Champ Oregon (12-1)
Oregon's about to get huge computer poll boosts with arguably the toughest schedule going down the stretch (Washington, Stanford, USC, Arizona State in CG). Arizona State winning out and finishing near the top 10 helps Oregon's cause big time (and their schedule is quite easy).

8. Big 12 Champ Oklahoma (11-1)
Oklahoma's schedule is tough enough (A&M, Baylor and Oklahoma State) for them to catch Boise State in the computer polls. That leaves the human polls to make a choice. Oklahoma beating an undefeated and 2nd ranked Oklahoma State on the last weekend of the season (Dec 3) pushes them over the top past undefeated Boise State.

9. Undefeated Boise State (12-0)
Their poor SOS is the killer here and the perception of a cupcake schedule. Having beaten only Georgia and TCU and having troubles beating Air Force all work against Boise State. The wins don't appear to be as dominating as years past either. Georgia and TCU must win out. The real clincher would be for a 2 loss Georgia to somehow beat the LSU/Bama winner and become SEC champs. That's so unlikely but that scenario would boost Boise State the most. Why Boise State couldn't schedule TCU on the last weekend of the season is a read head scratcher, given the fact they have been in this boat before.

 

That list was done last week.

I just brought the thread back up to discuss the subject matter.

I will re-edit the original post to reflect this week's games.