In reviewing the human polls, Oklahoma got more of a bit more of a bump than I thought they would. Problem for Texas is folks weren't impressed with Florida beating up on The Citadel and OU was able to jump them on several voters ballots. Enough so that OU actually passed Florida in the Coaches' poll. Again, if Texas beats A&M 63-0 and Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State 58-52 in 3 OTs, then it's anybody's guess. It's Texas' only hope that the pollsters will be 1 week removed from the OU bashing of Tech and reconsider their votes and place Texas back in front of OU. The computer polls will nearly be a standoff between OU and Texas after next week, so the humans decide it. You see, the BCS works. The voters decide! One last caveat, if Auburn upsets Alabama, that could conceivably hurt Florida's chances. Florida barely beats a #8 ranked Bama in the SEC CG, and maybe the voters say to heck with the SEC/Big 12 NC, we wanna see a rematch between Texas and OU. Not likely, but not out of the question. If Bama beats Auburn, then that option is out the window, it's SEC vs Big 12.
Texas is playing unranked aTm on Thanksgiving night. They can win big and it won't matter much IMO. aTm is a bad team. OU plays on the road at #12 ranked OSU. Game Day will be there. It will be a big deal. I'd say a road win over the #12 ranked team in the country would be bigger than a beating of an unranked aTm. Plus voters will remember more of the Saturday night prime time game than they will of a Thursday night game. This just my opinion. Take if for what it is worth.
Didn't realize Texas was a Thursday night game. Ouch, that hurts. You might as well have a bye week. Texas' chances are slipping away. I give them less than 10 percent chance now (if both teams win out, that is).
You are correct. The Texas game is pretty much irrelevant because their date is terrible for creating a buzz and their highlights will be non-existent. There are many other sports and T.V. shows going on that night. OU plays in the prime time game on Saturday with no other big sporting events to compete with -- that game will be on the voters minds late Saturday/early Sunday.
since you are a BCS guru guy, you might find this interesting. This was posted on a Longhorn board by Syntax Error. He's a BCS guru. He always posts BCS information each and every week. He's VERY accurate with his predictions. Thought you might like to read his latest info. I saw it tonight. Conclusion First Texas' chances to win the Big XII took it on the chin this week. OU gained a staggering 59 points on Texas in the coaches poll, and an also stunning 122 points in the Harris poll. Texas' current 0.06 advantage in the computers is the only reason they remain ahead of OU in the BCS. Unfortunately, I think that most (if not all) of this computer advantage will be going away when next weekend's action is completed. Texas therefore needs to pick up meaningful votes in the human polls if they want to win the three way tie. I'm encouraged that several in the media are on Texas' "side", but I don't know if that could possibly translate into anything in the polls to move the meter. If OU and Texas both take care of business, I hate to say it, but OU will probably be going to KC. I believe about 1/4 of the voters need to switch Texas and OU for Texas to get the edge, and that's not likely unless OU really struggles against OSU, and there is a groundswell of support for Texas. I'm rooting for OSU, and I think most people on this board have already figured out that is the right thing to root for at this stage. All is not lost, there are many other possibilities: 1) What if Baylor beats Tech? Texas controls its destiny (without question). 2) What if FSU beats Florida? Many votes are suddenly thrown into the mix, and Texas is a much stronger beneficiary. Let's just say, it would be a lot more interesting. 3) What if OSU beats OU (after all, it is in Stillwater)? Texas is a heavy favorite to go to the NC championship (regardless of what Tech does) 4) Even if OU beats OSU, what if they lose to Missouri? Texas is almost guaranteed to go to the national championship. 5) What if UF loses to FSU, but beats Bama? Texas is a strong contender to play OU in the NC. 6) What if Bama loses to Auburn, but beats Florida? Texas is a solid contender to play OU in the NC. Still lots of interesting possibilities. And the 3-way tie, while challenging, is not impossible. Texas needs to take care of business against A&M. We'll see where it goes from there. Detail on BCS Forecast This is an early update, as we don't have concrete numbers from A&H, KM or PW computer polls yet. That said, I regret to say that if one wants to be realistic/conservative about this, we should probably kiss the computer advantage good-bye (my base case below). Base case: Texas and OU have identical computer average. This means Texas needs to convert 13 coaches and 26 Harris voters (about 25% of all voters) to switch OU and Texas on their ballots. Texas' best-case: Texas has 0.02 computer lead over OU (get key wedges in a couple of important polls, and hang on to leads in A&H, JS, CM and PW). We'd only need to convert 5 coaches and 12 Harris voters if this happened. Texas' worst case: a couple more computers turn toward OU. Texas suddenly has a 0.03 DEFICIT. We'd have to convert 24 coaches and 48 Harris voters (getting close to half of all voters). Basically, Texas would be screwed. I've included a full appendix discussing the computer polls, and I'd really welcome any discussion on how people think these shake out. I'll update the discussion and projections if we see anything jump out on the computers that have yet to publish. WHY IS THIS HAPPENING? On the computer side, OU gaining on Texas was inevitable. In fact, I now believe OU's schedule is just as strong as Texas. Unfortunately, things took a turn for the worst this weekend when Texas' opponents went a lousy 1-3, while OU's Div I-A opponents went 3-1 (counting KSU). I am also being conservative with expecations because I think there is an uphill battle on this weekend's "battleground" games. I detail these below: Project Tex opp 3-3 FAU vs. FIU (give it to FAU) UTEP at ECU (yuck... ECU wins) Ark vs. LSU (LSU's imploding, but Ark is playing poorly... LSU wins) Rice vs. UH (UH is dangerous, but hope Rice can win) CU at Neb (yuck... Neb wins) Mizz vs. KU (Mizz should win) Project OU opp 2-0 Cin vs. Syra (be realistic, Cin wins) Neb vs. CU (yuck... Neb wins) -------------COMPUTER APPENDIX, FOR THOSE WHO CARE------------- Here's how I get to a dead even (0.96 vs. 0.96) computer score for Texas and Oklahoma. (* means data not yet available) Team *AH RB CM *KM JS *PW Texas 23 22 25 24 25 24 Okla 22 25 24 25 24 23 Poll level detail for those who care: Anderson & Hester (VULNERABLE) This has been a fairly stable poll, but we don't have the latest version yet to scrutinize how much ground OU has made on Texas. Bama and Utah have been entrenched at the top for a while on this one. For now, my temptation is to leave it static. 25--Bama 24--Utah 23--Tex 22--OU Richard Billingsley Not getting too scientific here. You can see the type of gains teams register when they beat a certain caliber opponent. OU picked up lots of points when they beat Tech, and they'll pick up a bunch more if they beat OSU. While OU already leads Texas as we speak, my fear is that they will jump Alabama. Even worse, I'm afraid Florida may sneak up from the rear and jump Texas. That's two wedges, and that sucks. It's going to be close on Florida, but to be conservative, I project: 25--OU 24--Bama 23--Fla 22-Tex Colley Matrix Texas has had a lock on this rating's top spot for several weeks, and although OU is gaining fast, I think Texas has a big enough lead to remain #1. Unfortunately, I think OU will jump Bama, Florida and Utah, taking away what had been a big gap of advantage for us. 25--Tex 24--OU 23--Fla 22--Bama 21--Utah Kenneth Massey I don't even see the point of studying this one too much, as OU has already taken the top spot, and Texas is #2. Texas simply can't play catch-up with OU in any poll, so I think it's a given OU stays #1. With TTU directly behind us, I'm not too worried about a possible jump by anyone, but we don't have the data yet, so we'll keep this one statick. 25--OU 24--TX 23--TTU 22--Ala 21--Utah Jeff Sagarin (VULNERABLE) OU picked up major ground in this one (remember Elo-Chess is used--similar to the rating system of chess players). It doesn't purportedly take into account recency of the game. Texas has held up better week by week in this poll than I expect, and I am going to take a leap of faith that OU can't replicate the gains they had last week because a) they are playing a lesser opponent, and b) OU is now higher rated, so it becomes less "unusual" for them to beat a top 12 team at this point. Who knows, maybe Texas can get a wedge here (you never know). If this one doesn't work in our favor, a lot comes unhinged. 25--Tex 24--OU 23--Ala 22--TTU Peter Wolfe (VULNERABLE) Without the data, can't comment too much on how strong Texas' lead over OU is. But I don't like Tech as a wedge between Texas and OU. At a minimum, OU will probably jump Tech. 25--Ala 24--Tex 23--OU 22-TTU 21-Utah
I'm thinking we'll have to see the tv ratings for Texas vs. A&M on Thanksgiving night versus Ok/Okie State on Saturday. The Texas game will be up against the pro game (Arizona/Philly), but other than that the Texas game will be the only show in town. The Oklahoma game hasn't locked into a time slot (as of this morning)... and one way or another, they will fight for viewers with Bama/Auburn, Fla/Fla St, ND/USC, etc. I'd be very surprised if the Oklahoma game gets a higher rating than the Thanksgiving eve game.
I don't know where you are getting your info, but the OU/OSU game is at 7:00pm on ABC Saturday night.
Peabody, I read the Texas poster BCS info, I swore I was reading my own stuff. lol Interestingly, if OSU beats OU and Texas Tech drubs Mizzou in the Big 12 CG, Texas goes to the NC and Tech is the Big 12 champ, beats Texas and is left out in the cold. Interesting. The BCS committee is praying for something clear cut. They aren't going to be so lucky this year.
Glancing at the computer polls, I project OU to be ahead of Texas in at least 3 of the 6 polls, maybe even 4 of 6. Not good for Texas. WColley Texas Florida OU Alabama Billingsley OU Alabama Texas (benefited from Notre Dame losing, otherwise USC could have jumped them here) USC Sagarin OU Texas Massey OU Texas A&H (best guess, difficult to guage) Alabama Texas Utah OU PW (another tough one to guage) OU Alabama Texas Based on this: Texas = .950 OU = .980 Not good for Texas. In fact, very bad for Texas.
