BCS Breakdown (Kansas Jumping LSU, laughable)

But in that scenario, LSU then gets to play that same Tennessee team (unless they lose to Vandy) in the SECCG. Even if they lose to Vandy, which would really hurt LSU in your analysis, LSU gets it all back and more by (we'll assume) beating highly ranked Georgia.

I don't think there is any real chance that Oregon jumps ahead of LSU, unless LSU loses. LSU has a pretty hefty lead, and that extra game in Atlanta will only enhance it.

 

Going over Tellshow's data, I've convinced myself that I'm wrong. I was using some rules of thumbs that have worked well for me in the past, and was trying to find a rationale that would justify it. My mistake was not appreciating the SEC's outstanding performance in OOC games this year. There is not a single bad loss by the entire conference. I think there is another post on the site that shows some data. This performance really enhances our SOS over the old average BCS SOS.

This said the next two weeks will be very important for us. If we have last min or OT wins the next two weeks, the resulting hooting and hollaring is going to have an effect on the voters. If we lose the #1 human poll position as a result, then we will be vunerable.

 

Voters can be fickle, and it's hard to know what they will do. LSU has three national games coming up and an opportunity to cement their claim to #1 (or #2, maybe, if Kansas wins out). Oregon doesn't have the same opportunity, so it seems the future is entirely in LSU's hands. If they don't make a statement or two, it's not out of the question for the humans to vault Oregon over them, but with the schedule LSU has played I suspect they will get a lot of slack.

It is pretty rare for a top five team to fall in the human polls in November/December without losing.