After two years of getting addicted to this stuff, I have yet to break the code on basketball recruiting. The films suck. The rating systems seem extremely random after the top few guys. It seems to me that, much more than football, one really good recruit can make a HUGE difference to a program. Does LSU have, or will we soon have, that recruit on the books? I can't tell. Folks seem psyched about this latest kid - but when I look him up, meh - seems kinda like a football 3-star (i.e. a project, maybe even a risk). Has 2010 been a success as a recruiting class or not? Seems like not, but as I've said - I'm having a tough time with this topic. What does 2011 look like? A couple of you guys do a great job of throwing detailed posts up. But I can't seem to follow it all. So, very concisely, what just happened, and what's the outlook for 2011? Danke!
I'll oblige, and I appreciate the separate hoops thread. You're absolutely right--basketball recruiting in some ways is IMO even less of a science than football recruiting. It's more complex evaluating talent, there is greater "uneven" playing field in terms of recruiting periods, going pro rules, and there's a fundamental issue of while there are less players on a team and one player may be able to make a huge difference, the collective whole of a team and chemistry and coaching in many ways can be a huger variable. Take the LSU example... The Shaq team of O'Neal, Roberts, C.J.--all world talent and recruiting, yet an underachieving team. LSU routinely got beat it seemed by Bobby Knight coached teams with what, one borderline NBA player in Keith Smart? In any case, my point is you can't always assume that a "stacked" team of recruits or even that "can't miss" recruit is going to = success. I think back to Brady's famous class of Bass, Neltner, Minor, etc. A top 5 if not top 3 class by most accounts. What did that get us? Minor was an overrated PG (Koundjia was overrated as well), Bass was good (but left early), Neltner was a decent role player but left early, etc. Then there were some unranked classes with very key local players that made the final four run possible for Brady--Darrell Mitchell and Tyrus Thomas, both 2* recruits. So, bottomline what has Trent done to date? He's recruited the players he's identified and he's recruited for his system over a ranking system. The class of 2009 is in the books and we'll skip over it for this discussion, since you focus on 2010 and 2011. 2010 will probably go down as a very good foundational year and assuming that we sign Andre Stringer, this will end up being around a top 15 or so class, and probably a top 3 class in the SEC. It has balance (i.e., 1 PG, 2 SG/SFs, 1 PF) where every player is a solid recruit with defined skills: Stringer - quick 5'9" PG with great 3 point range and good but improving PG skills (4*) Turner - solid 6'5" SG with good size for the 2 position and good shot, who can develop his defense and all-round game (3*-4*) Derenbecker - another "solid" 6'6" SF with a tremendous shot and good feel for the game, best kid out of LA arguably in 2010 (4*) Courtney - multi-faceted 6'8" forward, that can play inside and out. On paper 3 out of the 4 are top 100 kids, and Courtney is probably right on the cusp. I personally think this will also go down as a better class than what it'll be ranked, because it (1) fills many needs, (2) brings in players who are versatile and each can shoot (and let's face it, offense helps to fill stands. CTJ will teach the defense), (3) grabs arguably the top players out of LA, MS and AL, which is a large part of where Trent will have to recruit, and (4) when you look at each one of these kids they are kids that are talking about being at LSU for 4 years. So, from my perspective even though this class won't go down as a J-Cal, Kentucky type of class, you have to call it a very good foundational class... you also have to take Trent's coaching and very good players over average coaching and "better" players. Now, part of me still has the lingering question of whether long term, you need the classes of UNC, Kansas, UCLA or Kentucky to win a National Championship. You look at Calipari at Kentucky and just on paper, you ask can Andre Stringer match up against John Wall, can a kid like Malcolm White hang with Demarcus Cousins (each top 5-10 future one and dones)? But, you have to also believe that Trent and his team of Tasmin Mitchell type of guys will be very competitive, b/c they will play as a team, have more stability and less ups and downs, and get better over time, whereas the one and done teams will largely be up and down depending on recruiting every year. You have to also think and hope that a junior/senior in Malcolm White will hold his own against the talented freshmen/sophomores that Kentucky will trot out. Over time, LSU's up and down years will smooth out and we'll see LSU being in the top 2 teams in the SEC West probably year in and year out. And it'll be the LSU yin to Kentucky's yang, just like it was in the 80's. So, I'll give Trent (assuming Stringer signs), a A- for the 2010 class. No headliner guy arguably, and no center, but call this a class "filling a need" and establishing a good baseline for the future. As for 2011, if he signs four this fall and assuming no unexpected attrition, Trent will only have 2 schollies for 2011. One is already filled with the best LA player in John Isaac. He's given 2 other offers to high flyers, Ky Madden out of Arkansas (5*) and Marshall Plumlee, a 4* center. Simply due to size, Trent's 2011 class will generate little noise. But, I can see Trent holding a spot for a very good big man (who may be a national recruit), which will again, fill a need. He then reloads in 2012 where there are far more schollies available, which of course folks know means the Fab 5 out of New Orleans, Ricardo Gathers and company. By then, i predict that this 2010 class will have started to put LSU in a top 20 team contention again, and so 2012 may be Trent's first top 10 class. By 2012, the quality depth of Trent's team will put in him in a position to be challenging for Elite 8+ status consistently. (Or at least that's view through P&G-colored glasses ) Sorry, not short! :grin:
this (and hopefully superior player development) is the equalizer. besides, as a fan i much more enjoy following lsu teams with guys that have been around for 4-5 years. that bass, stro, randolph crap gets old.
ESPN has our current 2010 class listed as number 10 College Basketball Class Rankings 2010 - ESPN It's still early and a lot of high profile recruits haven't signed yet but I agree with Tiger'n when it's all said and done we should be around 15 or so.
And the interesting counterpoint to this is that Rivals has LSU completely unranked, despite LSU getting commitments from Derenbecker and Turner, who are on their list. Rivals.com Basketball Recruiting - Big week boosts South Carolina in team rankings If LSU gets Stringer, they'll probably be in the top 10-12 on the ESPN list, and maybe break the top 20 on the Rivals list. What's always a constant in college hoops, though, outside of a very few programs (i.e., UNC and a few others) is that hoops recruiting, very different than football recruiting, is very cyclical. You see that schools load up in certain years, and then have to recruit against that depth the next year. In football, you can have the LSUs, Texas, USCs sitting atop the polls every year b/c there are always 25+ schollies to give and a "farm" system. So, this year, you see Darrin Horn and South Carolina load up. And Tennessee will likely do the same. Kentucky, may have a "down" year in recruiting just because the class last year (although, with the number of "one and dones" expected, some recruits will go to UK just b/c they don't expect some of the players to be there). LSU really should have a good year this year, and despite the Rivals rating, LSU looks to sign 4 pretty good players. Ideally, if you want a consistent program, you try to sign that 3-4 pretty good players every year and keep 'em in school. That's what Trent is trying to establish, and given historical recruiting patterns of the prior regime, we'll probably have a thin class in 2011, but start to really consistently establish solid years starting in 2012. Of course, a lot can happen in that time. But, in Trent we Trust. :geauxtige:bball::geauxtige
Nice! :geaux: I think that's a little higher than I expected after going for so long without getting a mention from Rivals, but we'll see how that sticks after the season when the chips are all in and all of the top recruits are committed. In any case, things are good, it's a good class, and we can all take some comfort in the fact that perhaps, Trent does know how to recruit and get things done! :yelwink2: Btw, we all know that this is a big recruiting weekend with UF coming to town. Dandy Don makes mention of basketball recruits coming as well. Any clue or skuttle butt on who? :huh:
