The entire purpose of my explanation is to eliminate speculation to the extent possible. In fact, there is a way to mathematically quantify the claim, it's called Win Shares. I feel it is far too complex for this simple forum analysis, but I would suggest that anyone curious about how I reached my conclusions look it up. In regards to "anyone who really follows the game", that is the most speculative claim of all. How do you quantify your position? You are letting your eyes and "conventional baseball wisdom" deceive you. In reality, baseball is a game of numbers. The first way you compare any player is not based on characteristics that you see with your eyes, such as "tall" or "bulky" but by his numbers and production. Finally, I agree that all things are never equal in baseball. The analysis is based on a generalization, I will admit, but the generalization is within the standard deviation between teams and therefore very viable. Thanks for reading.
like hell! i told a couple of friends DURING last friday nights game that the last two runs we allowed would be the two that would kill us. and we lost by two. but that doesnt change my mind about ott.
I know that baseball is a game of numbers, that is the main measuring stick. My point is that your assumption is entirely too general to quantify by just numbers. You can try to convince some that it isn't, but the truth is that it is. Your explanation on how this would justify moving Ott to a starter position is negated by the fact that we don’t have a closer with his abilities. If we did, then I would say that there is evidence to support your position. This is no more difficult to understand than if you can open a door you have to be able to close it, moving Ott to the starter position leaves us without our best opportunity for closing the door. We are better suited to have pitchers who can keep a game in tact, allowing 3-5 runs, having our bats, which is our strength, manage to keep us out in front, and then having a shut down closer, Ott, shut the door. Now, I will say that if CPM knows something that we fans don’t, like in practice Ott is showing the capability to throw for 5-6 innings with similar stuff that he has as a closer, and we have a closer that is strong enough to close the door, then I will support CPM’s decision. But based on what I have seen thus far, that just isn’t the case. That doesn’t mean it isn’t there, it just hasn’t been shown to us.
yeah, we do. they just need to step up. if not, i say put ott in the friday night slot. LSU has won many, many games and titles without a closer. and yes, i read the entire thread. the reason the coaching staff hasn't tried ott at starter yet is not because of a lack of ability, rather they're trying to push through with what they have until ranaudo is healthy. ott is our closer and he's comfortable there, no need in messing up his rhythm. but if ranaudo is out for the season (unlikely based on recent information) you have to move ott to starter. what point is having a closer to preserve a win when you're down 6 runs? perhaps it's all a moot point, LSU has a lot of capable pitchers this season. ott is a closer right now because that it where he's valued at, but if our weekend pitchers start struggling, you need to move your best players to where they're most valued. and yeah, tulane shutout kansas, big flippin' deal, they could only score one run! our problem isn't scoring runs, it's giving them up.
no, it ALLOWS for there to be a more crucial spot later in the game. you never know what will be the most crucial moment in a game until it's over. if you throw your best guy in the 5th (6th-7th), you're assuming they won't threaten again later in the game, and just an average RP can get you home with a win. because the majority of teams throw their best reliever in the 9th. you have to trot SOMEBODY to the hill in the 9th. hopefully the scrub you're using doesn't give up as many runs as they have been in the middle of games lately. in case you haven't noticed, other than Ott, our relievers sometimes struggle to get 3 outs. novel concept
The truth is that it is? How can I argue with that line of reasoning? I feel I explained how I reached my conclusion very clearly, but I encourage you to look up Win Shares for further information. This folksy explanation of opening and closing doors has no statistical relevance and is purely speculative. I respect what you are trying to say, however, I encourage you to think more critically about your position. If you reread my previous explanation, you will see that I clearly explain how Ott as a starter leads to more wins than Ott as a closer. amen and amen.
I said "not good" because Tulane shut them out. Kinda like "Why did the armadillo cross the road?" To show it could be done.
Since you and SF brought this up, perhaps I was unclear. The majority of ANY inning goes 1-2-3 or with little fanfare. That is because in baseball it is very difficult to hit or string hits together, good batters are only successful 30% of the time. You are assuming that just because it is the final inning, the other team will score or mount a fantastic comeback. However, teams average little over 0.5 runs per inning in any game. So, while it is POSSIBLE they will score in the 9th, giving up a run in the 7th costs just as much as giving up a run in the 9th assuming your offense is trying to get hits and score every inning. To underscore, it makes little difference who pitches in what inning if you use the same pitchers.
i wasn't really taking up for you. just saying that if push came to shove, you do what you have to do. as it stands right now: ott is closer, end of story.
yeah. i didn't really mean it to sound so derisive, i just got a bit tired of people texting me about it. :redface:
