LSU has covered the spread every game this year except Kentucky which they didnt by half a point. Vegas hates LSU right now because LSU has just killed them in the books. There was an article I read about the top 5 teams this year have covered the spread something like 95% of the time. Which is exactly what Vegas DOES Not want to happen. Also home field advantage in Vegas is generally 7 points in college football. So technically Vegas sees LSU as good if not slightly better than Bama but given the home field Bama is favored. Your right Vegas does know what they are doing Also, my book still has it at 4.5. So I dont think 5.5 is right.
Well look at LSU, OKie State and Bama. Look at the scores of their games against the line. LSU has covered all but one (not including NWstate),I have made a mint on Okie State this year, they have covered like a machine. (Again this weekend they covered) So No not really overstated. Just look at LSU and Bama record against the line this year. Including NWState (Although should be no line since it is DII) LSU 6-2 ATS Bama - 7-1 ATS Okie State - 7-1 ATS That is NOT what Vegas wants on the top 3 teams.
right thats just above 80%. the top 8 are 41-9-1 which is just above 80 as well. so yeah, way overstated. :grin: I picked okie st in my pool before the season to win the NC. so i know all about it. :grin:
"right thats just above 80%. the top 8 are 41-9-1 which is just above 80 as well. so yeah, way overstated" Fair enough I over stated it but as someone who follows this somewhat closely (No I am not a professional gambler nor some digenerate who bets his kids lunch money, this is more a hobby) That is still unheard off. The top 5 teams in the nation ATS. I know Vegas wants about 4-4 type records meaning they are getting their lines accurate. The fact LSU and Bama are a combined 13-3 ATS means they have woefully missed on their lines....
right. we had this discussion when LSU was 23 pt favorites over Auburn thinking it was over adjusted. Turns out it wasnt enough. And they keep getting higher and higher. except this week. bama has the better power rating (subjective) and HFA.
I am woefully ignorant when it comes to how spreads are determined. Doesn't Vegas adjust the spread due to where all the money is being bet? Does the spread increasing mean that more people are betting for bama to win?
