And declarations of future results don't? Fine. Then give me 1,000,000-1 odds that no team will ever win the SEC with a QB that throws 4 TDs in the regular season (since you are making statements of certainty that it can't happen). No, I've gotten to an made my point many times over. Maybe you're just missing it? I agree that it is obvious. My point is that it is so obvious that there should not be multiple people (yourself included) insisting that it isn't true. Here's the point, in simplified form: we were very close to winning the SEC last year with the QB play we had. That demonstrates that it is not terribly unlikely that a team slightly better overall in the other areas of the game would have a reasonable chance at winning the SEC this year even if we get the same level of play. Now, here's your point: it is absolutely impossible for a team with a QB who only throws 4 TDs to win the SEC. ldskule::geaux:ldskule:
Here we significantly disagree. I see no reason to expect anything other than a strengthening in the other aspects of the team overall. We lose one stunningly awesome CB and return a ridiculous load of superplaymakers in the secondary to take up the slack. We lose one great and one pretty good DT, a position where we consistently replaced great (and better) players with more great (and sometimes better) players; cf., Glenn Dorsey to Drake Nevis. We lose one experienced savvy MLB and don't have anyone proven yet to replace him. And we return almost everything at DE with more experience and development. And we lost a pretty good RB while returning arguably three that are even better (but very likely at least one). And we lost a talented SR WR -- a position where a dropoff would only significantly hamper us if we got better QB play anyway -- and still have experienced guys to fill in (Randle & Shepard). And we return 4/5 of our OLine and have much of our best talent developing as 2nd and 3rd year players instead of rookies. I see every reason to expect us to be improved at every squad on the team except maybe LB and kicker. Improvement at 5 areas outweighs dropoff at those 2. So I don't see why we should expect anything less than a team even more forgiving of bad QB play. Plus, we have less dangerous competition for the West (no foreseeable Cam Newtons out there). I'm not suggesting we shouldn't want improvement. I'm ONLY saying that even if there's no improvement at QB, there's no reason to abondon reasonable hope of an SEC Championship. I wouldn't necessarily take us against the field, but I don't see anyone else with a better shot than us. ldskule::geaux:ldskule:
Of course. No one has suggested otherwise. And where would that be? What Joey has posted a "dismissal" of Jefferson's actual performance in favor of some "rosy" performance by Jefferson? In fact, if you do mean me, where have I posted anything at all positive about Jefferson's contributions to the team last year or this year? Do you believe there is reason for people to disagree with the assertion that it is possible to win the SEC with QB play like we had last year? Because that's the only thing with which I have declared there is "ZERO" reason to disagree. Maybe some quantification would help this situation. The certainty of past event determinism aside, I feel like if the games of last season were replayed 100 times, we'd win the SEC probably about 25 times. Right now, if we assume the QB play remains the same for us, I'd expect a slightly higher result if we played out this season 100 times, with us winning the SEC maybe, 28-33 times. Now, for me, a 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 chance is plenty enough reason for optimism, hope, etc. If y'all's standards vary, then we're simply having a communication and terminology issue. I'm not saying we have a better than 50/50 chance of winning the SEC with QB play like we had last year, and I'm not saying the QB play last year wasn't bad, and I'm not saying QB play last year wasn't our weakest link (by far), and I'm not saying it wouldn't be again this year if it doesn't improve significantly. Jefferson played quite badly last year, as did Lee. Both had moments of very good play, but overall our QB play last year was really bad. And that really bad QB play hurt us enough to almost certainly make the difference between winning the SEC and not winning the SEC. And if it doesn't improve, there's a very real chance it could do it again. But what I AM saying is that even if it doesn't improve, there's a reasonable (meaning 1 in 3 or 1 in 4, imo) chance that our team would be strong enough in other areas to overcome the bad QB play sufficiently to win the SEC anyway. Does that seem better? ldskule::geaux:ldskule:
As Sabanfan pointed out, we saw that pretty much all of last season, too, and still won 11 games. And with an improved O-line and a better RB corps (imo), there's good reason to think we might be even more successful at it this year. Combine that with an improved overall defense (again, imo), and it has the makings for reasonable championship hopes (still, imo). ldskule::geaux:ldskule:
LSU has the POTENTIAL to be better on both sides of the ball than last year, but as several of our highly-touted recruits have proven in recent years, potential often doesn't translate into production. Teams don't often reload immediately after losing upperclassmen leadership (see Florida 2010, LSU 2008). LSU is loaded with talent, but you may see a dropoff in play at certain positions (WR, LB) until someone steps up into that go-to role, and it could end up costing LSU a game that they should win on paper, particularly with this schedule. Injuries can also be extremely costly at positions with questionable depth. Last year's D-line was never the same after Montgomery got hurt. The kicking game, which was a large part of LSU's success last year, is now being handled by two freshmen, replacing two seniors. That will likely translate into more missed FGs, shorter punts, and more touchbacks. All of which puts more pressure on the offense and defense to perform with worse field position and longer drives. (How many possessions did LSU start drives with last season inside the 50, and still couldn't score on?) This all points to the sledding being tougher for Jefferson this season since the offense will have to produce more to win. Maybe Ford, Blue, Ware et al will be explosive right out of the box. More likely they'll bring a very good, bruising running game, but so did Ridley. Jefferson will have to throw the ball and be smart running the offense, and he will probably be asked to do so more often than last year. Especially in red-zoine situations, where LSU has been frankly awful. Runs get stuffed with a shortened field, and he can't throw only low-percentage fade route passes. LSU could be an NC caliber team this year, but all this pre-season giddiness is premature IMO with this many question marks.
Joey, I'll go along with your theory that it is POSSIBLE to win the SEC with a repeat performance from JJ. But the only reason is because there is no truly dominant team in the SEC (or at least doesn't appear to be one yet...it's early). Last year, AU was that dominant team. - IMO, the games JJ played worst in last year, we won. So Joey has a point. He didn't have his best games against AU or Arky, but didn't have his worst either. It's plausible that in our toughest tests this season, JJ has his best games...and we win the games where he has his worst games. But I think it's a given that better QB play GREATLY enhances our chances. - I'd venture to say, at this point, the team most likely to really break out and become dominant this year is...LSU. But the way that happens is if either JJ steps it up a good bit, or Mett takes the reigns and blows it up. Either is possible, I suppose. But until that happens, we're just another really strong SEC West team, with a pretty good chance of being the best SEC West team.
I would point out that, as many of our recruits have proven in recent years, potential often does translate in to production: cf., Mathieu, Reid, Ware, Simon, etc. But where does that upperclass leadership come from? Guys that used to be underclassmen. I am not inclined to discount the leadership of guys like Randle, Shepard, Lonergan, Claiborne, etc., just because they weren't upperclassmen last year. And both of those teams you mentioned (Florida 2010, LSU 2008) lost Senior quarterbacks; we aren't (for better or for worse). We have upperclassmen, and there's no reason to assume they won't be leaders, too. But you only cherrypicked the losses. What about having ball-hawkers like Mathieu, Reid and Simon in the secondary with a year's experience under their belt? What about the O-Line developing more maturity and chemistry with 4 starters returning and tons of last year's young talent being more experience and Will Blackwell returning? What about Mingo, Montgomery, Aghayere and Adams returning with another year's experience? All those things point to less pressure being put on the QB position thanks to a defense that gives up fewer points and less field position, and an even more consistent and explosive running game than we had last year. I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, because I just don't see how we are expected to lose more across the board than our opponents. Well, no amount of QB talent would make this team (or any other team in history) more than 50% likely to win the National Championship before the season starts. So any National Championship expectations would always have to be based on hopeful answers to some questions. Clearly you feel like we have far more questions that will be answered badly than I do. I'm not sure why, but we have months to discuss those. :yelwink2: Above I've posted a rough approximation of what "reasonable" and "hopeful" mean to me numerically. A 1 in 3 or 4 shot at winning the SEC is enough to make me smile, if not quite giddy. But since I do expect at least modest improvement from the QB position (even if not necessarily from Jefferson personally), I think the chances are a lot better for this season, and they are enough to make me giddy. There are always questions to be answered for every team every year; but I see us as having as many good answers to our questions as anyone in the country except Oklahoma. And THAT definitely makes me giddy. ldskule::geaux:ldskule:
I don't know how to make this more clear. I don't necessarily think those questions will be answered badly. What I am doing is tempering expectations until we see how all the pieces fit together. As good as all those players are, they will make mistakes, some of them will probably be injured to different degrees, they will have unfavorable matchups at some point, and the inexperience of young players will show. I am not saying definitively that those things will translate into losses, but presents a somewhat different challenge than the makeup of last year's team.
If JJ repeats, we don't win the SEC. I'll stand by that statement. The SEC is too good to have that kind of quarterback play and not lose 2 or 3 games. He doesn't even have to do that well. If he could just establish some sort of consistent passing game, we would definitely be title contenders.
