Nearly official. Any reason the BCS Guru would have Bama as #1 in the BCS 2 weeks in a row and be dead wrong 2 weeks in a row? Doesn't he have a reputation to uphold?
The damn formulas are so difficult to decipher I really appreciate the work you put into it. I have a question: Does the fact that LSU now has a commanding lead in first place votes help our BCS rating a lot? I remember reading that they were taking total points into account and not just the ranking.
right, it's total points/total possible points so every spot on every voter's ballots count The human voters count 2/3 of your score. So it's vital.
That's why I took ranking out of my computer model. My model is based purely on performance [ie., expected vs actual]. Oregon and WVU, average performance is better than AR. The only reason AR ranks so high in the other polls is because they racked up a lot of points on really crappy competition ... but when you figure in that they were supposed to rack up points, they don't look so good anymore. Of course, this past week is going to hurt WVU pretty bad, but it's probably going to hurt AR even more. Bama's opponents are not very strong in my model with regards to offense. This is easily definable, since you can assume that LSU's and Bama's opponents were trying to score then entire game. OTOH, In Bama's and LSU's cases, since they are undefeated, it's kinda hard to numerically define their offenses, because you can't figure in how much they pulled back once they got a big lead. In my model .. our defenses are pretty much equal. The wildcard will be, what is the true strength of our offenses. I think this is where LSU will win the game.
No .. I don't think so. No ranked teams comming up that I noticed are in play except AR ... and if Vandy beats AR, it helps the Vandy win, but hurts the AR win.
well if most of our opponents lose that Bama hasn't played (Oregon, WVU, Kentucky, MSU, NW St) and their teams win (Penn State, Kent State, North Texas, Vandy, Ole Miss), then the answer is a definite yes there are a couple of computer polls that Bama and LSU could swap and that would make the difference up in the human polls not likely however not likely at all
I wanted to be #1 going into the Bama game. Our guys have earned it, and I still don't understand why some LSU fans feel like we need a chip on our shoulder to dominate. We do not; we've earned #1, and I think we have a want to be #1. We shouldn't fear it. I think ESPN told Brad Edwards to project Bama #1, so that more folks would watch their crappy BCS show.
