Analyzing how far the loser of LSU/Bama falls

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by islstl, Nov 1, 2011.

  1. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    I think Oregon is a key here. LSU manhandled them and the voters in no way are forgetting that. If Oregon beats Washington this weekend (not a given), then I think that helps the loser of the LSU/Bama game get a softer landing.

    In that case, the loser falls to no worse than 5, but most likely only to 4:

    1. LSU/Bama winner
    2. Oklahoma State
    3. Stanford
    4. LSU/Bama loser (assumes a close game within a score's difference)
    5. Boise State
    6. Oregon
    7. Oklahoma
    8. South Carolina/Arkansas winner
    9. Nebraska

    Boise State is playing hapless UNLV (2-5 record). I certainly think Oregon in this scenario will close the gap on Boise State with an impressive win over Washington.

    I think Bama has a much better shot at falling to #5 behind Boise State than does LSU (due to the fact LSU firmly #1 vs Bama firmly #2 and that Bama lost at home).

    In the BCS poll, Boise State's computer polls probably would be better than that of the LSU/Bama loser, counteracting the human polls being in favor of the SEC team. They would be very close in the BCS rankings for 4th place overall. The losing SEC team would definitely be no worse than #5 in the BCS poll.

    Oregon losing would open things up just a bit and allow the voters a little more free reign over where they want to drop the loser. I still don't think it's any worse than 5, but Oklahoma would certainly be much closer to the losing SEC team than if Oregon would win. That's probably the biggest differences, and significant ones.
     
  2. onceanlsufan

    onceanlsufan Founding Member

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    Based on what you put up, it's conceivable that LSU stays above Oregon, but not Bama.

    I would think it would look something like ...

    Bama Winner
    Okie State
    Stanford
    LSU
    Boisy
    Oregon
    OU

    or ....

    LSU winner
    Okie State
    Stanford
    Boise
    Oregon
    OU
    Bama

    I would think that It'll end up that Boise gets taken out of the mix and drops below ALL major 1 loss teams, including AR.

    The kicker in the end .. is that Stanford and Oregon have to play each other.

    If Oregon beats Stanford, and since LSU beat Oregon ... and if OU beats Okie State ... LSU could find itself ranked #2, at worst, #3 bhind OU. It'll depend on what they do with OU if they beat Okie State.

    Bama won't have that advantage, as they haven't played anyone of substance other than the piggies who have no chance of rising above #7 if they don't beat LSU.

    Id be willing to bet that if OU beat Okie State, and Bama beats LSU ... the NC game will be between OU and Bama. [the two media darling].

    I think in the end, if Oregon beats Stanford, which is likely ... and OU beats Okie State ... the NC game will be between OU and LSU/Bama. LSU is the fly in the ointment that is getting in the way of the Media's dream.
     
  3. vshouse

    vshouse Veteran Member

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    I would Think the LSU/Bama loser goes to #6 but can work their way past boise state....but would need OK state and stanford to loose to make it back to #2
     
  4. ramahsghost

    ramahsghost Veteran Member

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    I hope this isn't defeatism :lol:

    The jirk calls it bama by 20 and everyone in this hole starts going crazy!

    Ya' gotta have Faith, man!
     
  5. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Nah I got us winning. Just providing some food for thought for the masses.
     
  6. tigerchick46

    tigerchick46 Quick Learner

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    They have to put the loser of this game ahead of Boise purely on schedule strength! Boise beat a bad Georgia team and thats it! I mean really, the loser should remain number 2! Common sense has to prevail!

    My soul is wrapped in that delicate thread of faith.....
     
  7. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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  8. tigerchick46

    tigerchick46 Quick Learner

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    Regardless, Boise has to go!!!:eek:
     
  9. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    A 1 loss Oregon or OU would do the trick.
     
  10. southerntgr

    southerntgr Veteran Member

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    however far Bama falls they will be back up. They don't have a tough schedule left.
     

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