Alabama 19, LSU 6

Bama's 4 SEC games

AR - 3-4
Ole Miss 4-3
Mizzou - 3-4
TN - 3-4

LSU's 4 SEC games

FL - 7-0
SC - 6-2
ATM - 5-2
AU - 1-6

I don't think anyone can say just how good or bad Bama is today. Of course they look "complete" and all that jazz ... but when you look at thier competition ... they should look complete. Those games should be blowouts. They should look "easy".

LSU has it's problems ... but one problem it hasn't had is playing some good quality teams. By all accounts, LSU should have beaten FL ..but they didn't. But they did beat two SEC teams with better records than any SEC team Bama has played.

It'll be interested to see the game this weekend against MState. I don't expect MState to fire up the scoreboard, but their defense is more solid than any team Bama has played thus far.

 

Did you come up with these nums mathematically or is there some subjective assumption in there somewhere???

 

Alabama .. what can we say besides they have a great coach, they have a great team. Their defense is everything it's hyped up to be. Their offense is good enough, with a good enough qb managing the game and making good throws when needed, and they have 2 backs who can bruise. They truly are an elite team.

They are FAR from invincible. The scoreboard doesn't tell you much, especially when you have a coach who is determined to run the score up on everyone he plays. So let's look at other stats.

The Michigan game ... in all honesty Alabama was pumped up as can be for this game, however Michigan was without their starting RB. The one guy who breaks Denard free. They only run with 1 rb worth a damn unlike the SEC. Huge benefit to Bama there, and we saw it. We also saw a coach who wasn't going to risk his teams future with letting Denard try to run it himself against a bruising Bama D. 269 net yard by Michigan with a lot coming late when it was over. They put 326 yard on Michigan State who is 4-4 ... not a huge difference.

Western Kentucky ... a game Alabama wasn't really caring about, but has some things to note. 224 yards by WK isn't anything to worry about but on the offensive side? WK sacked Bama 6 times. They got 14 first downs to your 17, and if not for their 4 turnovers, the score is no where near what it ended up as. You looked WEAK against WK.

Arkansas was in the middle of their downward spiral hitting rock bottom without their QB, facing Bama. Still with that said if two plays go differently Arkansas is in it at the end of the first quarter. Arkansas has 5 turnovers, and completely shits the bed, and Satan feels the need to challenge late calls just to ensure a shutout when the game is already over. His choice sure, but it reinforces the fact that he's a dick.

Florida Atlantic who is 1-6, scored on you. You guys also fumbled the ball 4 times (you've actually had a few games with slippery hands, but you seem to recover them well).

Ole Miss... you guys actually let them lead you. Yes you ended up cruising past them via the scoreboard but what about the numbers. 16 first downs for them, only 17 for you. Less than 100 yards difference in total yards gained. Another 3 fumbles for you guys, with only 1 lost. You intercepted them 3 times. Game was a lot closer than the final score, and turnovers win the game again.

Missouri ... oh Missouri. Without 5 players suspended, and with their starting qb injured they didn't stand much of a chance. Not that they would have with those players either, they're bad. They were BAD in the B12 and in the SEC they are giving it their best to be the worst team here. Grats on getting them for your schedule btw. On a sloppy rainy day you guys easily looked the most dominant you have been all year.

Tenn, nothing I can say that wasn't rehashed already. They're just not that good. You dominated them and McCarron looked great.

So ... what should we take away from this. I said above that Alabama is far from invincible, do the numbers back up what I said? You haven't played a solid team, and no real defense yet. But I can already tell you what the key of the game is. Much like LSU was last year, your strength is in your ability to cause turnovers. You're at a +14 or 2 turnovers per game. We saw at aTm just how important that is. LSU is at +9 or 1.13 per game. Both teams have 13 interceptions on the year. You have 14 fumbles, but have only lost them 7 times. Great at recovering your own fumbles, but that's playing with fire as well. We similarly are 14 fumbles and lost them 8 times.

Another strength for you is something that is always a strength of Saban teams. You don't commit (aka don't get called for) many penalties. 4.4 a game for 36.1 yards a game. LSU on the other hand is 8.5 for 64.9 per game.

Passing yards have already been brought up in this thread, so I won't go over it. McCarron is definitely a better game manager, but Mett if he hits the open guys on the long ball when you stack the box has more potential. I'd give you guys the upper hand there.

So what does LSU need to do in order to beat Bama? Bama WILL attack the OLine, they will stack the box. Mett HAS HAS HAS HAS to hit the open person, and we have to catch the ball. Our run games are about even, with a slight edge to LSU in having more options. Our OLine has seemingly recovered, although any further injuries will hurt. DLines are about equal, with both of them being amazing.

If Saturday Night in Death Valley can rattle Bama, and we win the turnover margin, we will beat Bama on the backs of our defense. I reiterate the numbers back up that Bama is far from invincible, and it will show. Turnover margin is the biggest factor, but if Mett can hit open receivers, and Saban has to drop people back and not stack the box we will run right over their DLine.

My prediction? LSU 14 Bama 10 Turnover Margin 2-1 LSU. Delusional Optimism, but I know Mett has it in him, and I believe in the magic of Death Valley.

 

[quote="VampMuse My prediction? LSU 14 Bama 10 Turnover Margin 2-1 LSU. Delusional Optimism, but I know Mett has it in him, and I believe in the magic of Death Valley.[/quote]

If LSU has a "S. Carolina" like game performance we most certainly can win. I do not see how anyone that follows our team can disagree with that.

We will have to play our best game so far, but we knew that long ago. Sometimes you have to have faith and believe the powers to be are coming up with something special for this game and that our players are going to lay it all on the line.

This game has not even begun to get hyped yet. Wait til next week.

LSU the underdog, underachieving team with something to prove, has the team that has been on a pedestal for 8 weeks, the team that ended its "dream" season last year, coming to town.

Throw out the stats on this one in my opinion.

 

No way do we lose this game. This is the focal point of the entire season.

After a bye. Against our sworn enemy. At night. In Death Valley.

LSU 17 - Bama 14

 

If you do not think being in death valley on 11-3 will not affect Alabama you are very Delusional!! LSU has been looking forward to this game since the ass kicking they took in the NC game, that Les and his game plan made them look like complete embasils. This is by far and away the best defense bama will face all year....eddie lacy is no trent richardson, a good back yes, a home run threat ..no! LSU is overmatched when it comes to bama's defense vs Lsu's offense, but from what I saw.....I think lsu will have sucess moving the ball against alabama...IMO the key to the game will come down to whether or not lsu settles for field goals in the red zone....if lsu settles for 3's instead of 7's bama wins......if not The tide will be OUT of the national picture....in the words of rocky......"their aint gone be no rematch!!"

 

I think the key is going to be discipline!! We can't give Bama a free 100 yrds and 5 free first downs.

I don't see Bama punching in TD's this year any easier than they did last year. They only scored 1 TD, in the last part of the NC game, when our defense was completely gassed and had pretty much given up, thanks to no offense.

AND .. IMO .. our pass defense tends to be better this year. I know everyone loved the Honey Badger, but TM7 was not a stellar CB. ... too short, and the tall receivers ate his lunch. Mills, is growing nicely, and ... just my ill informed opinion .. will be more effective against Bama's passing game. This defensive back field seems to respond well to the adjustments that Chavis makes ... just look at aTm last week.

And McCarron is no running QB. We held back to contain aTm... but you can bet more pressure will be comming at McCarron.

We just need the light to come on for Mett. He can do it .. I'm confident he can. I'm also seeing a bit of Ford around the end against the big but slower Bama D. ... maybe a little Warecat/Ford or Hill option action going on.

I just don't see this game being the pushover that the media heads and bama fans think it is going to be.

 

For me it is too early to predict a score i want to see what the gumps do against the cowbells. If it is a bruising game and a quarteback goes down or a running back (Lacy seems to get hurt a good bit) LSU chances are better. Does Bama look more complete...yes. Have the played the level of competition Lsu has...no but they have handily defeated all they have played.