after July 16, the Saints will be stuck paying Brees $21 million/year over next 3 years

Basically, the Saints have Brees locked up for 3 years under the franchise tag... under which, they must pay him about $63 million total ($21 million/year)

according to Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk, "if Brees currently is looking for an average payout of more than $21.43 million per year over the next three years (which equates to $64.3 million over three years), it makes no financial sense for the Saints to offer him a long-term deal."

i think his reasoning is that, after 3 years, Brees will be 36 years old, and Brees aged 36-40 years old is not worth as much as Brees aged 33-35 years old (for ex, Joe Montana's last year as the starter for the 49ers was when he was 34). after 3 years, Brees won't be able to command a $21 million/year salary anymore, so it could be better for the Saints to just pay him $21 million/year over the next three years under the franchise tag than it would be to give him a 5-year contract for $21 million/year (Bobby Hebert, for ex, wants the Saints to give Brees a 5-year contract for $20 million/year with $75 million guaranteed)

as Mike Triplett of The Times-Picayune wrote: "the franchise tag remains the Saints' best leverage in contract negotiations. They could actually use the franchise tag on him for three straight years, as long as they offer a 20 percent raise in 2013 ($19.2 million) and a 44 percent raise in 2014 ($27.6 million). That three-year total of $62.8 million [$20.9 million/year] wouldn't be much different than what they're expected to pay him if they reach a long-term contract agreement"

Peyton Manning, who is 36, just signed a 5-year deal for $96 million with the Broncos ($19.2/million a year), which makes him the highest paid QB in the NFL... but there's a catch: The Broncos have the unilateral right to drop Manning before the end of the 2012, 2014, or 2015 league year and avoid the remaining $78 million, $38 million, or $19 million, respectively, due on his contract

as for Brees, if he and the Saints don't agree otherwise by July 16 (or in future offseasons), Brees will be on a year-to-year contract over the next 3 years with the Saints where, if the Saints choose to resign him each year, he'll be due:

according to Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk (using the correct numbers):
2012 -- $16.371 million (the average of the five highest-paid QBs for 2012)
2013 -- $19.645 million (120% of his 2012 pay)
2014 -- $28.289 million (144% of his 2013 pay)
TOTAL: $64.3 million ($21.43 million/year)

Mike Triplett of The Times-Picayune had a pretty good guess before the exact figures were determined in late April:
2012 -- $16 million (his guess of the average of the top five QB salaries in 2012)
2013 -- $19.2 million (20% raise)
2014 -- $27.6 million (44% raise)
TOTAL: $62.8 million ($20.9 million/year)

 

well, Bobby Hebert had Brees on his radio show yesterday

regarding the topic of the negotiations, Brees was trying to choose his words very carefully, and he did say that both sides have done a great job keeping everything private between just the two of them (and he said that ESPN, etc have no idea what they are talking about regarding their guesses at the particulars they are discussing)

when Bobby asked him what the main hold up was, Brees said it's a particular number that he is seeking, that he said was a "reasonable" number

but later went on to say that the public doesn't realize just how many fine details there were to iron out, how complex these contract negotiations are

Brees later mentioned he was "frustrated" about one thing, which was the lack of "communication" coming from the Saints side...he made it sound like whenever he and his agent propose a counter offer, they do it quicker than the Saints do, with the Saints being more careful and deliberate in taking their time to make sure they get it right...and Brees did sound like he wants to get this behind him with the team preseason preparations already under way

the good news is that nothing in Brees' tone of voice suggested he was upset or disappointed (as opposed to his interviews after a Saints loss when his tone of voice shows disappointment)