2016 State by State General Election Polling Tracker

ISWYDT.

 

he thinks you posted it twice on purpose for the 2 out of 3 thingy.

 

I KNEW you would catch it.

 

Trump's terrible week is starting to show up in the polls. Since my last posting on Monday we've had 7 battleground polls come out and they are as follows:

Michigan, 43-37 Clinton. Trump has yet to lead in a single poll from Michigan.
North Carolina, 42-46 Trump. Clinton has consistently led there over the past 5 weeks so we'll keep an eye on this one to see if this poll is an outlier or a sign of things to come for Trump in NC.
Pennsylvania, 49-38 Clinton. Clinton has a comfortable lead in PA, likely insulated by suburban, college educated voters.
Florida, 48-42, Clinton. Trump had shown some growth in Florida prior to the past week so we'll keep an eye on this one also.
New Hampshire, 51-34, Clinton. Trump has never led in a single poll from New Hampshire.

Now for the two polls that are an indication of why I so confidently started the thread "Why it is mathematically impossible....." Changing demographics in a handful of states will make it very difficult for Trump to win because the changes cut into the Republicans "red wall" of states that they reliably count on. In the latest polling Clinton leads Trump 45-42 in Arizona and has consistently run even or ahead of him there. Secondly, Clinton leads Trump 44-40 in Georgia and has run even or just below him until now. If Clinton wins either of these states it makes Trump's path to the WH all the more difficult and starts getting into more and more narrow scenarios. Actually, if she even forces his campaign to have to spend money in those states to preserve them it is a significant advantage for Clinton.

As I've said before I do not put a lot of stock in national polls. That said, one use of them is in determining bounces or trends. In order to do so you must have polls that are tracking polls....meaning they take new polls every week or every other week or every month. So, take these for what they are worth....

McClatchy-Marist
7/13 42-39 Clinton +3 (This was prior to the RNC)
8/4 48-33 Clinton +15

NBC/WSJ
7/17 46-41, Clinton +5(This was prior to the RNC)
8/4 47-38, Clinton +9

Rasmussen
7/28 43-42, Clinton +1 (This was at the end of the DNC)
8/4 44-40, Clinton +4

FOX
6/29 44-38, Clinton +6 (This was prior to the RNC)
8/3 49-39, Clinton +10

CBS
7/25 43-44, Trump +1 (This was at the beginning of the DNC)
8/1 47-41, Clinton +6

CNN/ORC
7/25 45-48, Trump +3 (This was between the RNC and DNC)
8/1 52-43, Clinton +9

PPP
6/30 48-44, Clinton +4 (This was prior to the RNC)
7/30 50-45, Clinton +5

RABA Research
7/23 39-34, Clinton +5 (This was at the end of the RNC)
7/30 46-31, Clinton +15

Hope this helps.....will update once we get enough to data to make it worthwhile

 

A new perspective on the race. I looked at all the states where one candidate or the other leads the opponent by an average of 5 points or more and put together a list of states in each candidates column and here is what I came up with:

Trump - Alabama, South Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Texas, Utah, Arkansas, Kentucky, Kansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Idaho, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska and Alaska. These total 158 electoral votes for Trump that I believe we can safely say are in the Republican column.

Clinton - Minnesota, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Connecticut, Maine, New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire, Delaware, Washington, New York, California, Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusets, Vermont, Maryland, District of Columbia, Rhode Island and Hawaii. These total 256 electoral votes for Clinton that I believe we can safely say are in the Democrat column.

Here are the remaining battleground states listed in order of their competitiveness:
1 - Georgia. Yes, Georgia is the most competitive state right now. 3 polls were released this week and they averaged 43.7-43.7
2 - Iowa. No polls released this week, average over the past month is 41-40, Clinton.
3 - Ohio. No polls released this week, average over the past month is 43-42, Clinton.
4 - North Carolina. 1 poll released this week at 46-42, Trump. Average over the past month is 43-42, Clinton.
5 - Florida. 1 poll released this week at 48-42, Clinton. Average over the past month is 43-42, Clinton.
6 - Arizona. 2 polls released this week. CBS poll shows Trump ahead 44-42. OH Predictive poll shows Clinton ahead 45-42. Average over the past month is 44-43, Clinton.
7 - Nevada. 2 polls released this week. CBS poll shows Clinton ahead 43-41. Rasmussen shows Clinton ahead 41-40. Average over the past month is 43-41, Clinton
8 - Mississippi. Yes, Mississippi. No polls released this week. Average over the past month is 46-43, Trump.
9 - Oregon. Yes, Oregon. No polls released this week. Average over the past month is 43-40, Clinton.
10 - Wisconsin. No polls released this week. Average over the past month is 45-41, Clinton.

Some surprising battleground states in that list. For most Republicans it will come as a bit of a shock to see Georgia and Arizona on that list and for most Democrats seeing Oregon on that list will come as a bit of a shock. Keep in mind that Oregon is the only state that allows everyone to vote via mail-in tickets.

Of more concern for Trump at this point is that Clinton's lead has grown substantially enough in Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Mexico, Colorado and New Hampshire that they can be taken off of the battleground list. Latest polling shows her with a 12 point lead in Virginia, 11 points in Pennsylvania, 10 points in Michigan, 8 points in New Mexico, 8 points in Colorado and 17 points in New Hampshire. This all being said, if her averages in any of these states drops back down below 5 points I will move them back over to the battleground list.

 

I like the bit about college educated. It's quite known our campuses are quite liberal these days. Makes a lot of sense as they would be in step with liberal ideas.

 

Haven't they always been fairly liberal places? I went to college in Nacogdoches, TX at Stephen F. Austin. You will probably never find a more conservative neck of the woods but even there, the professors were very liberal. That said, I don't know that it matters that much.

 

Like wtf does this even mean.

 

College educated voters are the primary demographic in suburban areas. Democrats' dominance of Pennsylvania has always centered around the urban areas of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Republicans have always won rural areas and then a majority of those college educated, suburban voters. The fact that she has managed to flip that demographic, college educated voters, makes winning Pennsylvania virtually impossible for Trump.