2016 State by State General Election Polling Tracker

A bundle of polls have come out over the
past 5 days so I figured I would update some battleground states polling:

Colorado, 6 polls over the past 30 days, all 6 with Clinton leading. Average of polls is 43.8-37.0
Florida, 7 polls over the past 30 days, 2 with Trump leading and 5 with Clinton leading. Average of polls is 44.9-41.0
North Carolina, 5 polls over the past 30 days, 2 with Trump leading and 3 with Clinton leading. Average of polls is 45.6-42.2
Virginia, 3 polls over the past 30 days, all 3 with Clinton leading. Average of polls is 45.3-39.0
Iowa, 6 polls over the past 30 days, 1 with Trump leading and 5 with Clinton leading. Average of polls is 42.7-39
Michigan, 2 polls over the past 30 days, both with Clinton leading. Average of polls is 49.0-40.0
Ohio, 6 polls over the past 30 days, 1 with Trump leading, 2 with Clinton leading and 3 tied. Average of polls is 42.0-41.0
Pennsylvania, 5 polls over the past 30 days, 1 with Trump leading and 4 with Clinton leading. Average of polls is 44.6-40.2
Wisconsin, 4 polls over the past 30 days, all 4 with Clinton leading. Average of polls is 45.0-38.0
Nevada, 3 polls over the past 30 days, 1 with Trump leading and 2 with Clinton leading. Average of polls is 46.0-43.3
New Hampshire, 3 polls over the past 30 days, all 3 with Clinton leading. Average of polls is 44.7-41.3

If a battleground state is not listed above it is because there is no new polling within the past 30 days. A few trends that I've noticed....in Trump's quest to take the Rust Belt, he is running very well in Ohio where he's polling on a point behind HRC, but he is not faring as well in other Rust Belt states like Wisconisin and Michigan. He is 4.4 points behind in Pennsylvania which is barely outside the margin of error. With the two recent Florida polls showing Trump up on Clinton he has closed the gap from 7 points down to just 4 from last week. Lastly, while the previous two tidbits of information are positives for Trump, a trend line that his campaign will have to find troubling is that his polling average in these battleground states hovers dangerously around 39-40%. I've been watching this trend for about a month. You can look at my previous post and see what I mean.

With both conventions and VP picks getting ready to happen I expect to see a lot of fluidity in the polling numbers over the next few weeks. Historically, candidates get a "bump" when they accept the nomination at the convention and when they select their VP picks. With this in mind I expect Trump will get a 2-3 point bump post convention and a week later Clinton will likely get the same after the Democratic convention.

More later!

 

It is commendable that you care. I see neither as remotely satisfactory, though someone will end up in charge.

 

We are now past the conventions and getting into the heart of the election. Polling after the RNC has now completely cycled in and we have a better idea of what Trump's bounce really looks like. I do not put much stock into national polling because the state polling is more relevant. So let's take a look at where the race sits in the battleground states post RNC.

Only 5 states have had polling conducted since the RNC and they are this:
Missouri, Mason-Dixon poll shows Clinton ahead 41-40
Pennsylvania, Suffolk University poll shows Clinton ahead 50-41
Georgia, Landmark/Rosetta Stone poll shows Trump ahead 46-44
Nevada, Rasmussen poll shows Trump ahead 38-43
Ohio, PPP poll shows a tied race 45-45

Below are the averages of battleground polls over the past month:

Missouri, Trump 45.7-39.3, 3 polls
Pennsylvania, Clinton 45.3-40, 3 polls
Georgia, Trump 46-44
Nevada, Trump 42-41.5, 2 polls
Ohio, Clinton 42.6-41.8, 5 polls
Michigan, Clinton 41-35.8, 4 polls
New Hampshire, Clinton 39-37
Iowa, Clinton 40.5-40, 4 polls
North Carolina, Clinton, 44-38
Virginia, Clinton 42.3-37, 3 polls
Florida, Trump 42-41.7, 3 polls
Colorado, Clinton 44.6-36.6, 5 polls
Wisconsin, Clinton 45-41

Other battlground polls but outside of the past 30 days:

Arizona, Trump 43-48
New Mexico, Clinton 41-33
Mississippi, Trump 43-46

You can see where Trump appears to have made some gains in Nevada and Florida, while Clinton held her leads in the other states or expanded them (Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia). Given this polling, if the election were held right after the RNC our electoral college count would be 312-226, Clinton. Based upon this polling, it appears Trump did get a bump in some states. As I said before he got a bump in Florida and Nevada, made up a point or two in Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire. Clinton held her lead steady in Pennsylvania and Ohio.

The other big news is a recent poll out of Georgia that shows Trump with just a 2 point lead over Clinton. This isn't the first poll that has showed a tight race there so Trump could end up having to defend states that he probably didn't plan on defending.

Lastly, there have been reports out of both campaigns that they are pulling most resources out of Virginia and Colorado. This is only rumor at this point but it seems to be coming from both sides so I am guessing that there is something to it. Clinton has recently taken a double digit lead in Colorado and very near it in Virginia. If so, this means the path for Trump narrows considerably.

We should be getting more state polling post-DNC in the next week and we'll see if Clinton got any kind of bounce. Some national polls seem to indicate that she will receive a bounce but I do not put a whole lot of stock in national polls.

 

Thanks NC.

Gonna be a close one, as we all knew. "Who you're for" won't be as important as who goes to vote- moreso than ever.

 

Surely my friend.....I'm a numbers wonk so I actually enjoy tracking it. Turnout will indeed be key.

 

seems like trump has to win ohio, fla AND penn to have any chance.

 

No easy task when the Rep Governor doesn't support you in his state.

 

POLL: Hillary Clinton scores 7-point bump after DNC