2016 State by State General Election Polling Tracker

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uNyPXDrKMuzUSERH0dkz001SSls8xLJg8MkhleZf5Rw/pubhtml

the link is a spreadsheet that I made to track all state by state polling, general election polling and presidential approval ratings. I have broken down the numbers by an average of polls for the past 90 days, the past 60 days and the past 30 days.

A few things standout, even though the general election hasn't technically started until the Dems nominate Clinton or Sanders: Obama's approval numbers keep rising and that bodes well for whomever the Dem nominee ends up being as long as that trend continues. It is just about impossible for an incumbent party to win with a President whose approvals are under water.

Next, the obvious....the race has tightened since Trump nailed down the Republican nomination and he is benefiting from the Republican party coalescing around him. Just like Clinton he has a group of his own party who claim they will never vote for him but imo those individuals will come around and vote for him or her, respectively, because people rarely go against their own ideological leanings. As I have said all along, I expect, and history would suggest, that the Dem nominee will get a similar bounce once they have secured the nomination. Below is a link to a study done by Chuck Todd at MSNBC that shows what the race would look like today if you remove Sanders from the equation.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uNyPXDrKMuzUSERH0dkz001SSls8xLJg8MkhleZf5Rw/pubhtml

I will update this from time to time but probably not regularly until after the conventions. You will notice that a lot of the national and state polling only equals about 75% to 85% of the electorate. That will change after the conventions and we start getting polling that includes the Libertarian Party and the Green Party and the "nevertrump" and "neverhillary" movements coalesce around their nominee. I think the last polling I saw that included these had the Libertarian party getting about 5% and the Green party getting about 3% but I also assume some of these are folks who are still ass hurt from the primaries on either side.

 

Find the "Summary" tab at the top for a complete overview of the states, general election polling and presidential approval ratings

 

Looks like a lot of work/time was put into that. Thank you but we (or me) need a key at the bottom so I know what the red/blue indicates, exactly.

 

I'll add that key for you next time Tiga....

 

Just a quick update on state by state polling over the past month. You can reference this information at either realclearpolitics.com or 270towin.com.

Here are the lean Democratic states that had no polling over the past month. These represent a total of 76 electoral votes. Connecticut, Massachusets, Maryland, Minnesota, Illinois, Hawaii, Vermont, Rhode Island, Delaware and DC. In previous polling, HRC has a commanding double digit lead in all of these states with the exception of Minnesota which was at 9 points.

Here are the lean Republican states that had no polling over the past month. These represent a total of 114 electoral college votes.
Georgia, Tennessee, Louisiana, West Virginia, Indiana, Mississippi, Alaska, South Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Alabama. DJT has a commanding lead in all of these states with the exception of Georgia, Mississippi and Kentucky where in previous polling HRC has run within three points of him. In fairness, I do not expect HRC to win these states thus my listing them here.

There are two "toss up states" that had no polling over the past month and they are New Mexico and Missouri and they represent 15 electoral college votes.

Now for the polling from the past 30 days. I will list the state, how they are polling and then list how many polls this included.

Nevada, 45-44(2) Clinton
California, 58-28(1) Clinton
Oregon, 46-32(1) Clinton
Arizona, 43-45(3) Trump
Florida, 47-40(4) Clinton
Iowa, 44-38(3) Clinton
Michigan, 50-39(1) Clinton
New Hampshire, 45-41(3) Clinton
New York, 54-31(1) Clinton
North Carolina, 46-43(4) Clinton
Ohio, 43-42(4) Clinton
Pennsylvania, 46-41(3) Clinton
Wisconsin, 45-37(4) Clinton
New Jersey, 52-31(1) Clinton
Texas, 32-39(2) Trump
Arkansas, 36-47(1) Trump
Colorado, 40-39(1) Clinton
Maine, 42-35(1) Clinton
Maine (3rd congressional district), 36-37(1) Trump
Utah, 27-36(1) Trump
Virginia, 48-45(1) Clinton
Washington, 49-37(1) Clinton
Kansas, 43-36(1) Clinton

Taken at face value these represent 272 electoral college votes for Clinton and 61 for Trump. Leaving the grand total at 348 to 175 with 15 others still up in the air. If past elections are any indication I would give Missouri to Trump and New Mexico to Clinton, leaving the total at 353 for Clinton and 185 for Trump.

Digging into the numbers a little deeper, Kansas is a real surprise for me; we'll have to see if that holds up or if traditional trends overtake it as we get closer to the election. Clinton is expanding her lead in Florida, now at 7 points. Trump cannot win without Florida. If Trump is going to pick off a rust belt state I believe his best opportunity will be in Ohio.

 

all the fundies cant make themselves vote for a philanderer that is pro-abortion and says "two Corinthians".

 

It is INCREDIBLE to me that this race is INCREDIBLY close.

 

Trump has showed better in a few recent FL polls.