Waaa? Somebody says: "I thought everyone in the stadium knew which plays were coming, pretty much based on the personnel sent in. The goes back to even when RP was here." And you think that is "the voice of reason"? It's just like on the Saints forum I'm active at... you have this small fraction of people (not "everybody") that absolutely, seriously believes that Sean Payton is completely predictable in his play-calling and they swear, just like you do, that they can predict the exact play he is calling. Like Tirk said above, every fanbase has these people. On the Saints forum, one of the best answers I saw to these people was a guy who said: Yeah, with every person I know who tells me that, I bet them $100 that they can't even predict half the plays being called. And sure enough, the guy who thinks he can predict the plays be called loses $100. Try it... bet your friend $100 next game (or whatever game you feel comfortable with) that you can predict the play we are going to run, at least just half the time. Put your money where your mouth is... and you could make some money.
In the LSU vs Troy game last year, somebody made an interesting case that LSU was stealing the signals from Troy: Cap'n Ken's Homespun Wisdom » Archive for jacob cutrera Some snips: Troy’s quarterback checked the sideline before each play, and sometimes the play proceeded as called. But more often than not, the entire offense – linemen included – would step completely off the line to get what must have been an entirely new play call coming in from the sideline. This is what it looked like in the first half: ... But a funny thing happened in the second half. LSU’s defenders stopped looking frustrated and started focusing on something else: That’s Ricky Jean-Francois (90) and Jacob Cutrera (54) picking up the play call from the four Troy coaches calling in signals (and, no doubt, decoy signals). This play happens to be the Chad Jones interception. Now watch the play run and see how Cutrera keys on the receiver who gets thrown to even before the ball is snapped. [MEDIA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jRvfAqvjVs[/MEDIA] There’s no reading the quarterback’s eyes or thoughts of covering the guy coming across the field the other way – Cutrera clearly reads the signal, adjusts out of what looks like a blitz and doubles the guy they’re gonna throw to. Jean-Francois also seems to adjust out of his pass rush to fall back to where the pass was going after picking up the play. Maybe the LSU coaches pressed SuperMike into service to decode the complex algorithms of the four Troy coaches flapping their arms, but it’s very clear that just as Troy’s early success came from knowing what LSU was doing on defense, LSU’s success late came from turning the tables on them. .... The play I posted was pretty freaking clear if you ask me, but there’s definitely more. The three other very clear examples are all Ricky Jean-Francois doing the obvious spying. This one is from the second quarter right before Troy’s third touchdown. You very clearly see R J-F pop up and move to his left to get a look back at the Troy sideline. He then points at a receiver to his left. Turns out he was wrong, perhaps, as the quarterback looked just briefly at that receiver before going to his right. [MEDIA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OPTu6eokCk[/MEDIA] The second one is from early in the third quarter on Troy’s last touchdown drive. Again you see R J-F get up and actually move over to his left to see around the offensive lineman in front of him. It doesn’t look like he got much but “pass” out of the signals. ... And finally, we have R J-F in the fourth quarter. He clearly spies the sideline and, though it’s hard to see with the TigerVision-to-YouTube quality losses, he points eagerly over to the receivers to his right. Guess where the ball is thrown. ... Troy’s entire offense has learned these signals and don’t seem to have a problem picking them up from the coach. I have to imagine the LSU players are equally capable of understanding signals – it’s just that Troy assumes they won’t know which signal is real and what it means. I think they were wrong there, at least later in the game. Challenge the evidence and theory if you like. I saw what I saw. ... Cap'n Ken's Homespun Wisdom » Archive for jacob cutrera
I'll try it this Saturday and honestly report back how well I do. Maybe I'm wrong about it, we'll see. I'd guess I will be correct at least 60% of the time which would give any defense a significant advantage. Not so very predictable on defense but I get those right from time to time as well.
Make sure you have a reliable witness that can confirm it to us (and no, not you posting here as a "witness" under a secondary account you created). If you are delusional enough to think that the voice of reason dictates that "everybody in Tiger stadium" can predict our play-calling, then you are most likely just as delusional to think that you accurately predicted our playcalling -- now yeah, if after-the-fact you felt like you would have predicted that we would have run that play in the first place... I can see where you are coming from. But that's not the same as predicting the play in the first place. For example, look at this guy who posted earlier in this thread: see how he is drawing conclusions after-the-fact that our playing-calling is predicatable?
As I said, I will honestly report how it turns out, it's up to you to determine whether you choose to believe it or not. I'm not going to seek out any of these forum posters in Houston to watch the game with them, it'll just be me and the Mrs watching at home. I'll keep a stat sheet on each offensive play and record whether my prediction is accurate. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that every play RS is in the game for will be a run play to him. :lol: Not really, I think Les may have a slight wrinkle on that this week that we haven't seen yet. My word will have to be enough, take it or discard it as you will. Now that I've put it out there, it will be interesting to test out the theory to see if I am right or delusion as you said.
Well, that's most likely going to fail. Say LSU lines up in a way that makes you think "LSU is going to run." You're thinking LSU is going to run it right up the gut in some way or another, but LSU runs an option instead. Maybe the Georgia defense thought we were going to run right up the gut in some way or another, and they were surprised when we ran an option instead. Meanwhile, you are home thinking... hmmm I thought we'd run, and we did... so check, I called that play. Tee hee. And that's just being very simple about it. For example: just when it comes to us running the ball, I'd love to see you predict if we run traps, draws, sweeps, counters, dives, off-tackles, etc. etc. And that's still being very simple about it A better option would be for you to post a video of the game here where we can all watch it over again, and then break it down for us play-by-play, wowing us with your football knowledge (I'm still waiting for somebody to do that here... on the Saints forum, I've even seen them do that for preseason games).
I doubt it will be that in depth because this will likely be a very interesting game that I don't want to be too distracted from and because that's more work than I'm willing ot put in after the fact by going back and documenting the details while re-watching it on Tivo. I'm going to simply check out each play and before the snap mark down an indicator for "run middle", "run outside", "screen pass", "short pass", "middle pass", "deep pass", "option", or "trick play". Audibles don't count. I'll mark my pre snap prediction and the actual play. I'll mark them all on a spread sheet so I can post it up if you like.
Like I said: a better option would be for you to post a video of the game here where we can all watch it over again, and then break it down for us play-by-play, wowing us with your football knowledge. I'd like to see people do that here like they do on the Saints forum. That would be fun and very informative. And yeah, I guess you predicting stuff like traps, draws, sweeps, counters, dives, off-tackles, etc. etc. is out the window. It's all "run middle" or "run outside" to you.
Also, on perceived pass plays, you need to jot down JJ's intended receivers in the same order that he has to check them down. You can't disregard audibles. While you try to predict the play based upon the formation, note what the defense is and what audible you would call.
