With TCU's loss to USM, and OSU pending loss to Michigan, LSU is poised to make a big move in the Computer Polls & Major Polls. Of course, this assumes we take care of business Saturday and Michigan proves Las Vegas right, both a one touchdown favorite. What a TCU/OSU loss means to LSU in Computer Polls We're currently getting our arses kicked at 5.83 average ranking http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/ncaa/polls/2003/bcs/ That's 35 points divided by 6= 5.83 average ranking With TCU/OSU losses, we project a 12 point drop. 23pts/6=3.83 3.83 is a 2 point LSU gain, USC is only projected for a 1 point gain or less with 14-16 points, or a 2.33 to 2.5 points Comp Poll Av. That will place LSU about 1.5 points behind USC in Computer polls, a full 1 point gain for the week ... very good. The Breakdown: Anderson & Hester Poll (LSU=#5) #3 TCU loses, #2 OSU loses----->#4 USC/#5 LSU fight for #2/#3 Richard Billingsley Poll (LSU=#4) #9 TCU loses, #2 OSU loses----->#3 USC/#4 LSU fight for #2/#3 Colley Matrix (LSU=#7) #4 TCU loses, #2 OSU loses----->#3 USC-->#2, #7 LSU -->#5 Ken Massey (LSU=#3) #8 TCU loses, #2 OSU loses----->#4 USC-->#3, #3 LSU--->#2 Sagarin Poll (LSU=#7) #8 TCU loses, #3 OSU loses----->#2 USC-->#2, #7 LSU--->#5? LSU can jump all SEC teams and go to #4. Miami is the current #4 and may move to #3 (LOL...unbelievable) New York Times ....... flies buzzin insanely wild round this work This poll has us at #11 -------------> we get one throwaway, NYT Peter Wolfe (not much better than NYT ... LSU=#9) #5 TCU loses, #2 OSU loses----->#9 LSU ---------->#5 (we hope) Who's afraid of the big bad Wolfe? LSU is, they hold our fate. New Projected Wolfe poll: 1. OKLA, 2. Texas, 3. USC, 4.Tennessee, 5. LSU over GA Math Time (add em all up) LSU =2/3+2/3+5+2+5?+Throw away NYT+5=3.83 (2 point gain) USC =2/3+2/3+2+3+2+3=14/6=2.33 (1 point gain) It all depends on whether LSU can grab the #2 spot in the A&H and Billingsley Polls. If so, we can close the gap even further as both polls are very tight right now. Final BCS Projection next week (LSU vs USC) 2. USC 2 2 2.0 2 2 2 3 2 3 2.33 42 1.58 1 -0.10 6.81 (7.71) 3. LSU 3 3 3.0 3 3 5 2 5 5 3.83 53 2.08 1 -0.50 9.41 (12.21) USC =7.71 BCS--------->6.81= (almost a 1 point gain) LSU =12.21 BCS-------->9.41=(almost a 3 point gain) You can see that the AP/ESPN polls become critical for LSU. SOS will allow LSU to drop another point, but we don't ever catch them unless we take the #2 spot on AP/ESPN. Next week's AP/ESPN polls are critical for a big LSU move. We need it now. Geaux Tigers ..................Eviscerate Farchie............LSU 63, UM 17
I have spent 1/2 hour crunching da numbas. I have a nice spreadsheet on the BCS, looks great. I feel like a Vegas Mafiosa thug checking the cash counts, lol. I was optimistic on Computer Polls, should be within 1/2 point. Michigan is the big factor. Michigan loses ... forget LSU in the Sugar ... fuggitabowtit
If Michigan wins and LSU can win out, you can pretty much throw away all the other teams around us. All that matters is where LSU is in relation to USC. Since the computers don't do a "relative jump" thing like the human polls tend to do, you don't necessarily get to keep your spot even if you win. LSU is set up well to have a possibility to pass USC in each computer poll by the end of the season. I don't see the same thing happening in the human polls unless we DOMINATE our remaining opponents. Human voters seem to have a difficult time switching teams orders without a loss somewhere. Also, I believe that even if Michigan passes us this week, they don't keep it anyway. We have two weeks unopposed to pass them back up.
Right on ... but your earlier SOS reasoning is flawed. Several of the Computer polls do their own SOS rankings ... Billingsley has us #59 for example ... this affects the rankings greatly. The geocities link you gave had LSU #24. There is no single SOS ranking. Other polls Colley, use fixed SOS. http://cfrc.com
Also, if we assume Washington State beats Washington tomorrow, they'll move up in the polls that they are currently behind TCU in, since TCU lost. This will improve USC's BCS ranking, since USC gets Quality Win points from their win over Washington State.
