What are the actual chances Florida goes to the NC?

If UCLA does indeed upset USC, and Florida of course wins, what are Florida's chances at overtaking an idle Michigan for #2 in the BCS?

First the computer polls. I had Rich Tellshow (very knowledgeable BCS guy) take his best guess at the final outcome of the computer polls under this scenario.

He said that he thinks Michigan and Florida will more than likely split between 2nd and 3rd.

Ok, so that makes things easy. It basically comes down to the human polls.

Let's examine the current human polls.

Coaches (63 voters)
1. Ohio State..1575
2. USC ..........1491
3. Michigan.....1445
4. Florida........1405

Harris (114 voters)
1. Ohio State...2850
2. USC............2711
3. Michigan......2614
4. Florida.........2528

First thing that is certain is that Ohio State has garnered all first place votes in both polls.

First assumption I will make is that USC is either 2nd or 3rd in everyone's poll (for simplicity sake, it's probably pretty close).

That being said, 42 coaches voted USC 2nd, 21 voted them in 3rd. In the Harris poll, 89 have USC in 2nd, 25 have them in 3rd.

The question we must ask now is how many of those 2nd place votes actually belong to Michigan vs. Florida? I will make an assumption that 3 out of every 4 belong to Michigan. Sounds fair. I will take this same assumption and apply it to which voters have Michigan ahead of Florida (3 out of 4).

My last assumption, just to make things as simple as possible, I will say both Michigan and Florida are no lower then 4th in anyone's poll. This should be a very sound assumption since Arkansas, Notre Dame and W. Virginia figured to be the only teams who garnered votes any higher than 5th last week, and they all lost.

Based on these assumptions, here is your voter breakdown:

.....Coaches.....1st.....2nd....3rd.....4th
1. Ohio State....63.......0.......0........0 = 1575
2. USC.............0........42.....21.......0 = 1491
3. Michigan.......0........16.....32......15 = 1450 (equivalent of 5 voters having Michigan as 5th vs 4th)
4. Florida..........0.........5.....10......48 = 1406 (one point more than actual total, ugh!)

.....Harris........1st.....2nd....3rd.....4th
1. Ohio State...114.......0.......0.......0 = 2850
2. USC.............0........89.....25.......0 = 2711
3. Michigan.......0........19.....66......29 = 2612
4. Florida..........0.........6.....23......85 = 2543 (equivalent of 15 voters having Florida as 5th vs 4th)

Now I will tweek the numbers ever so slightly so as to match the actual poll totals for both Michigan and Florida. I will make general assumptions that votes out of the top 4 are landing in the 5th position (again, to make things as simple as possible). Teams like Wisconsin, Louisville and even Boise State could be as high as 4th in a few of the voters polls.

Here is the final adjusted poll distribution:

.....Coaches.....1st.....2nd....3rd.....4th....5th
1. Ohio State....63.......0.......0........0......0 = 1575
2. USC.............0........42.....21.......0......0 = 1491
3. Michigan.......0........16.....32......10......5 = 1445
4. Florida..........0.........5.....10......47......1 = 1405

.....Harris........1st.....2nd....3rd.....4th....5th
1. Ohio State...114.......0.......0.......0......0 = 2850
2. USC.............0........89.....25.......0......0 = 2711
3. Michigan.......0........19.....68......27......0 = 2614
4. Florida..........0.........6.....21......74.....13 = 2528

Now let's apply the USC loss. We will assume USC falls to #5 or lower in everyone's poll. That should be a definite. I will distribute shift the votes up for both Michigan and Florida. Here is what the poll breakdown would then look like:

.....Coaches.....1st.....2nd....3rd....4th
1. Ohio State....63.......0.......0.......0
2. Michigan.......0........48.....10......5
3. Florida..........0........15.....48......0

.....Harris........1st.....2nd....3rd....4th
1. Ohio State...114.......0.......0......0
2. Michigan.......0........87.....27......0
3. Florida..........0........27.....74.....13

Now let's apply the effects of a Florida win over Arkansas.

Let's see what the results look like if 1 out of every 4 voters changed their positioning of Michigan vs. Florida in favor of Florida. This would be what you might expect from a "fairly close" victory by Florida (8 pts or less). It wouldn't be a victory like that vs. South Carolina when Florida was viewed to be lucky to win. It would have to be a victory that Florida seemingly had in hand the majority of the game, holding off Arkansas in the end. I will assume all the 4th place votes would be lumped with the 3rd place votes for Florida in the Harris poll, effectively jumping Florida past whatever teams voters had one spot ahead of them (other than Michigan). Conversely, I will leave Michigan's 4th place votes in the Coaches poll where they are, since Michigan is idle and can't improve their position on whichever few random teams are ahead of them.

.....Coaches.....1st.....2nd...3rd....4th
1. Ohio State....63.......0.......0......0
2. Michigan.......0........36.....22.....5
3. Florida..........0........27.....36.....0

.....Harris........1st.....2nd....3rd....4th
1. Ohio State...114.......0.......0.....0
2. Michigan.......0........65.....49.....0
3. Florida..........0........49.....65.....0

Now let's say Florida wins quite handily (17+ point margin). Here are the results if 1 out of every 3 voters changed their positioning of Michigan vs. Florida in favor of Florida:

.....Coaches.....1st.....2nd....3rd....4th
1. Ohio State....63.......0.......0......0 = 1575
2. Florida..........0........31.....32.....0 = 1480
3. Michigan.......0........32.....26.....5 = 1476

.....Harris........1st.....2nd....3rd....4th
1. Ohio State...114.......0.......0.....0 = 2850
2. Michigan.......0........58.....56.....0 = 2680
3. Florida..........0........56.....58.....0 = 2678

Final BCS poll:
.......................Coach...Harris....CPU.....Total
1. Ohio State.....1.000...1.000....1.000....1.000
2. Florida.......... 0.940...0.940....0.940....0.940
3. Michigan........0.937...0.940....0.940....0.939

The Florida Gators, by the margin of basically a singular voter from either human poll, would have vaulted into 2nd place in the BCS standings and granted the opportunity to play the Ohio State Buckeyes for the national championship!

What this exercise proves is that Florida is not that far from evening out the human polls with Michigan. Only 1 out of every 3 voters who have Michigan ahead of Florida need to swap their votes the opposite way. What actually helps Florida's cause is the loss by USC coming in the same weekend that Florida beats Arkansas (convincingly, for Florida's sake). There will be 42 coaches and 89 Harris voters (equivalent of USC's 2nd place votes) that will have to decide if they want to jump Florida over Michigan, or keep them in the same order they are in (move each up 1 position). In the end, a 42-17 Florida win over Arkansas could go a long taking Florida to the promised land.

Maybe LSU landing in the Sugar Bowl isn't so far fetched afterall.

 

Re: USC dropping out of the BCSCG!

Yes USC vs. Michigan would be the most likely scenario for the Rose Bowl.

They don't have to pick Michigan, but I would think they would be busting at the seams to get that dream matchup.

The only thing that might hold them back from doing it was we had this matchup back in 2003.

All in all, I would be 90 percent sure it would be USC vs. Michigan in the Rose Bowl. LSU would be headed to the Sugar Bowl.

macattack, I edited out that very last statement in my original post I had made about us going to the Rose vs USC. I forgot about Michigan being available to the Rose (it was 4 in the morning....)

 

Well the odds are stacked against Florida that we even come down to the voters final tallies.

USC losing vs. UCLA = 15 %
Florida winning vs. Arkansas = 50 %
Florida winning big vs. Arkansas = 10 %

USC lose/Florida win close = 6 %
USC lose/Florida win big = 1.5 %

And then we still wait on the voters. That's why I had that 1 % for the Sugar in my original percentages thread.