Top 10 picks for the week Definitely these 3 teams will win big ... FLORIDA -28.5 over Middle Tenn State ... Frustrated Florida will maul 'em LA TECH -9.5 over S-M-U ... SMU is hapless ... shut out Memphis -23.5 over Tulane ... A week off to focus on this execution, Memphis finally rolling ... Wimprine mauls Tulane at home ... sure bet Like these 3 teams to cover too ... TEXAS -14 over Mizzou ... Texas line up to 14 ... tough call OKLA -20 over KANSAS STATE ... KSU could be in trouble here CALIFORNIA -15 over UCLA ... Cal rolls here ... 25 points wouldn't help UCLA A stretch on the rest ARIZONA STATE +10 over USC ... Upset? ... still, too many points Tennessee -10 over Ole Miss ... Tennessee plays big here ARKANSAS +13 over Auburn ... Hogs give 'em a game ... take the points WISCONSIN +7 over Purdue ... Intangibles/Turnovers Just under 20K left in the kitty, 35-28 ATS on the year Need the Top 5 here
"Expert" analysis on your picks: FLORIDA (-28.5) 43 Middle Tenn 14 I’m not sure how eager Florida is to be playing this rescheduled non-conference game in the middle of their SEC schedule, but last week’s loss could have them in a nasty mood. My math model picks it 43-14, so there doesn’t appear to be any line value and I’m not about to guess as to the Gators mental for this game. Louisiana Tech (-10.0) 30 SMU 26 Louisiana Tech has an explosive offense now that Matt Kubik has taken over at quarterback. The Bulldogs already had stud Ryan Moats to carry the ball (6.5 ypr last year and 928 yards at 6.7 ypr this season), but Kubik has averaged 6.3 yards per pass play in 108 passes against teams that would allow a combined 5.1 yppp to an average quarterback. With Kubik at the helm the Bulldogs rate at 1.1 yppl better than average offensively and should move the ball well against a decent SMU defense that’s allowed 6.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defense. The Mustangs offense has actually become pretty decent too since an injury to starting quarterback Chris Phillips enabled Jerad Romo and Tony Eckert to start splitting time at quarterback. Romo has averaged 7.1 yards per pass attempt and leads the team in rushing yards despite not playing in the first two games of the season and sharing quarterbacking duties with Eckert. The Mustangs offense has averaged a decent 5.0 yppl over the last 3 ½ games since Phillips went down and I rate that unit as 0.5 yppl worse than average and expect them to prosper against a poor Louisiana Tech defense that’s allowed 5.9 yppl and rates at 0.6 yppl worse than average. Overall, my math model favors Louisiana Tech by just 8 points and the Bulldogs would qualify in a very negative 19-63-1 ATS statistical profile indicator if they remain a favorite of 10 points or more. Basically, road favorites of 10 points or more with a bad run defense tend to have trouble covering the spread. That will probably be the case in this game and I’ll side with an improving SMU team plus the points. MEMPHIS (-23.5) 34 Tulane 16 Memphis is not nearly as good as they were expected to be this season, as they have averaged just 5.9 yards per play against a schedule of bad teams that would combine to allow 6.3 yppl to an average offense. The Tigers’ defense lost all of their impact players from last year’s good unit and they have struggled too, allowing 5.6 yppl to teams that would average just 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. I do believe that the Memphis offense is better than they’ve shown, as they have all of the major pieces returning from last year’s good unit, but they haven’t shown it yet. Tulane is a bad team that I rate at 1.3 yppl worse than average offensively and 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively, but my math model favors Memphis by just 14 ½ points in this game based on how each team has played so far this season. The Tigers do qualify in a 209-122-9 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is based on the Tigers’ good run defense (although they’re horrible against the pass), but that angle is worth just 3 ½ points, so I would still favor Tulane in this game. TEXAS (-13.5) 32 Missouri 14 Texas lost again to a superior Oklahoma team, but the Longhorns should bounce back this week against an overrated Missouri squad that continues to struggle offensively. The Tigers have averaged a decent 5.5 yards per play, but they’ve faced a schedule of teams that combines to allow 5.8 yppl on defense and they were held to 14 points and 4.1 yppl by Troy State, the only good defensive team that they’ve faced this season. Texas qualifies as a good defensive team, as the ‘Horns have allowed just 4.6 yppl to a schedule of teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defense. With the Texas ‘D’ clamping down on Brad Smith, the Longhorns should eventually pull away in this game, as their offense (6.6 yppl and 0.8 yppl better than average) is a bit better than a good Missouri defense that has allowed 4.2 yppl and rates at 0.7 yppl better than average. Missouri has had horrible special teams play, which is part of the reason my math model favors the Longhorns by 18 points and I see no reason to alter that prediction. Oklahoma (-20.0) 37 KANSAS ST. 16 Kansas State is not nearly as good as they’ve been in recent years, but the line may have caught up to that fact, as my math model favors Oklahoma by 19 points in this game. Kansas State is actually pretty good offensive when Dylan Meier is in the game, as they rate as average rushing the ball while Meier has averaged 7.4 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppp to an average quarterback. Teams have stacked the line to stop star running back Darren Sproles and Meier is starting to take advantage of that. Overall, Kansas State is 1.0 yards per play better than average offensively with Meier in the game (backup Webb has sucked, which has hurt the overall stats). Oklahoma’s defense is starting to come on, as they did a great job in shutting out a good Texas offense last week. For the season, the Sooners have yielded just 4.6 yppl to a schedule of good offensive teams that combine to average 6.1 yppl on offense. Oklahoma’s biggest edge in this game is when they have the ball, as the Sooners have averaged 6.3 yppl (against teams that allow 5.1 yppl on defense) and go up against a sub-par Kansas State defense that is only average against the run and horrible against the pass, allowing 6.7 yppp to a schedule of teams that would average just 5.8 yppp against an average defense. The Wildcats have gotten a couple of key defenders back from injury in the last couple of weeks and they played better than average last week, so I expect that unit to play a bit better than they have so far this season. Oklahoma was destroyed by Kansas State in the Big-12 championship game last season and I’m sure that Bob Stoops will have his team primed for this game. The Sooners usually beat up on mediocre teams and they are 8-1 ATS under Stoops when favored by less than 24 points against a team with a win percentage of .500 or less. However, I’ll have to pass on this one. USC (-10.5) 31 Arizona St. 16 USC was out-played by California last week (4.4 yards per play to 5.7 yppl), but they took advantage of Cal’s special teams mistakes and held off the Bears. Most people think that there are problems with USC, but they are not giving the Bears enough credit for being a very good team, and the line has come down from an opening number of 13 to a current line of 10 ½ points. Despite struggling last week, USC is still a very good team, as they’ve averaged 6.1 yppl on offense against a schedule of good defensive teams that would combine to allow just 4.6 yppl to an average offensive team and they’ve given up just 4.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.3 yppl against an average defensive team. So, the Trojans are actually 1.5 yppl better than average on both sides of the ball. Arizona State is a good team, but their offense (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 4.6 yppl to an average offense) isn’t nearly as good as USC’s defense, and the Sun Devils’ defense (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl to an average team) isn’t quite as good as the Trojans’ offense. USC also has an advantage in projected turnovers (+0.45) and my math model favors USC by 12 points after adjusting for the loss of their best wideout Steve Smith, who is sidelined with a season ending injury sustained last week. The line value is accentuated by a 117-62-2 ATS situation that favors USC, which is a few points stronger than a negative 19-36-1 ATS game 6 angle also applies to the Trojans (game 6 undefeated home favorites of 7 points or more versus .500 or better teams). It looks like the public has overreacted to what they saw on TV last week against Cal and I’ll lean with the Trojans to handle their business this week. Tennessee (-10.0) 34 MISSISSIPPI 28 Mississippi is starting to come around, as last week’s upset win at South Carolina would indicate. The Rebels are certainly better offensively the last few games since deciding on Ethan Flatt to be their quarterback, as Flatt’s numbers are far superior to Michael Spurlock, who started the first two games. In 4 games with Flatt as the starter, the Rebels have averaged a solid 5.5 yards per play and rate at just 0.1 yppl worse than an average Division 1A team offensely. I expect that attack to work pretty well against a mediocre Tennessee stop unit that has given up 5.5 yppl to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team. Mississippi’s offense, of course, makes up for their modest defense, as the Vols’ two frosh quarterbacks lead an attack that has averaged a healthy 5.9 yppl despite facing a schedule of teams that would allow just 4.9 yppl to an average offense. The Rebels’ defense has allowed 5.7 yppl and rates at 0.4 yppl worse than average, so Tennessee should have little trouble surpassing their 29 points per game average. My math model favors the Volunteers by 8 points in this game and I have situations favoring both sides. However, the situation favoring Ole’ Miss is stronger than the one going against them, so I’ll call for a slightly closer game and lean with the Rebels as a home dog. AUBURN (-13.0) 37 Arkansas 20 Arkansas has done an incredible job of rebuilding a team that had just 4 total returning starters, but they’re not quite ready defensively to beat good teams on the road. The Razorbacks’ offense has been amazing, led by lone returning starter QB Matt Jones, as that unit has averaged an impressive 6.4 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average offense. The Razorbacks’ inexperienced receivers are loaded with talent and Jones is having incredible success throwing the football, averaging 9.0 yards per pass play against teams that combine to allow just 6.1 yppl on defense. Jones will be tested by a very good Auburn defense that’s allowed just 4.2 yppl (and rate at 1.2 yppl better than average) and just 4.3 yppp. Auburn’s defense is slightly better than Arkansas’ attack, and the Hawgs scored an average of just 23.5 points against good defensive teams Texas and Alabama, with both of those games being at home. My math model forecasts 21 points for Arkansas in this road game and that probably won’t be good enough to stay close to a Tigers squad whose good offense (6.5 yppl and 1.0 yppl better than average) should score pretty regularly against a mediocre Arkansas defense that’s given up 5.5 yppl (to teams that average 5.5 yppl on offense). Auburn applies to a decent 117-62-2 ATS angle, but Arkansas is a solid 18-9 ATS as an underdog under coach Houston Nutt (although just 7-6 ATS as a conference road dog). I’ll lean with the Tigers in this one. PURDUE (-7.0) 26 Wisconsin 20 This game will give us a gauge as to how good Purdue’s offense really is, as the Badgers have one of the nation’s best defensive units. The Boilermakers’ Kyle Orton is having a special season so far, averaging 9.1 yards per pass play while throwing for 18 touchdowns against just 2 interceptions. Orton leads an attack that has averaged 7.2 yards per play and rates at 1.6 yppl better than average (they’ve faced teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average offensive team). Wisconsin’s defense, however, is 1.5 yppl better than average – allowing 3.5 yppl to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average defense. The Badgers’ pass defense is particularly good (3.3 yppp allowed) and my math model predicts a modest 6.6 yppp for Orton in this game. Wisconsin’s offense has struggled in the aerial game with new quarterback John Stocco and without NFL wideout Lee Evans, but Anthony Davis is one of the nation’s best backs and he has had back-to-back great games (381 yards at 5.8 ypr) the last two weeks after missing 3 games with an eye injury. The Badgers couldn’t move the ball without Davis, but they rate at just 0.1 yppl worse than average with Davis in the lineup. That unit should have a few scoring opportunities against a Purdue defense that is only 0.3 yppl better than average and my math model favors the Boilermakers by 6 ½ points in this game. This game is interesting from a technical standpoint, as both teams qualify in positive general situations and both have very strong team trends favoring them as well. Wisconsin is 27-5 ATS since 1991 (coach Alverez’ second season) as an underdog of more than 6 points, including 9-1 ATS recently, while Purdue is 30-13 ATS at home under coach Joe Tiller (since ’97), including 12-1 ATS recently. The angles and team trends all cancel each other out and there is very little line value, so I suggest passing on this game.
Personally: I love Bowling Green (-27.5) over Ball State (@ Ball St.) - on the road this year, Ball St. lost to Purdue (59-7), Missouri (48-0), and Toledo (52-14). Bowling Green's offense has been impressive in scoring 108 points in the last 2 weeks. The Ball State QB is a true freshman and has played against the 3 worst pass defenses in the nation in his only 3 starts of the year. The only thing I don't like is that Bowling Green is 0-3 ATS as a favorite of 20 points or more under the current coach. I like Stanford (+1) over Washington State (@ Washington St.) - I think Stanford wins this game straight up by 4 or 5 points - maybe buy a point here. Washington State's defense is allowing 4.7 yards per play on the season, but they gave up 6.5 yards per play to Oregon last week in a 41-38 loss. I like Clemson (-22.5) over Utah State (@ Clemson) - the Tigers get it right and take out some major frustrations this week. Clemson's defense has been rather solid. Utah St. has a generous defense and a lethargic offense. Clemson's offense will finally click...
On the Texas/Missouri game: Missouri has won two road games in three years (Baylor last week and Texas A&M in 2002) and they almost lost to a pretty bad Colorado team two weeks ago. Texas has covered each of the past 5 years in the game after the OU game and typically comes out looking like a completely different team after losing to OU. I expect Texas to cover this one rather easily.
so do I. I think Mizzou defense has not been tested at all. UT should crush them by 4 tds. Thanks for the reminder.
Here's what I layed down ... Pick # 64/2004 ... FLA -29 over MTS :thumb: :thumb: :thumb: :thumb: :thumb: Pick # 65/2004 ... LA Tech -10 over SMU :thumb: :thumb: :thumb: Pick # 66/2004 ... Memphis -23 over Tulane :thumb: :thumb: :thumb: Pick # 67/2004 ... Texas -14 over Mizzou :thumb: :thumb: :thumb: Pick # 68/2004 ... OU -20 over KSU ... :thumb: :thumb: :thumb: Pick # 69/2004 ... Arkansas +13.5 over Auburn :thumb: Pick # 70/2004 ... Wisconsin +6.5 over Purdue :thumb:
Really I've never put a bet on a Ball State game in my life :lol: ... where are you getting this **** I like Wazzou State to outscore Stanford ... I wouldn't pick for Clemson in anything this year ... :dis: We'll see what you do this week ... I'll be happy if all 3 win for you
Line was too high ... wasn't going to give 12 points ... took LSU instead as my third team (one large) and went with 5 large on my other two teams We're in the soup this week ... I hope BB's expert with his ****ing Mathematics is all wet ... I bet against the mofo on almost every pick The more I do this **** ... the more I know there ain't no ****ing experts ... only statisticians ... any given Saturday ... my hunch picks are like 5/6 this year ... College FB is almost a crapshoot Almost :lol:
