The Sword of Inigo Montoya: a screed about "mediocrity"

This board has been absolutely littered with posters worried that LSU is being taken to "mediocrity" by Les Miles. It's hard to find a thread that touches on coaching, or on individual game performances, without a post attacking a pro-Miles commenter as someone who "accepts mediocrity," or even "embraces" it. I'm too lazy to find individual posts to link to, and I also don't want to attack any individual. This is more about a collective mindset than any one person.

What strikes me, though, is that you'll see people who think LSU will have "slid into mediocrity" if LSU goes 9-3 this year. Now, I see where you're coming from: 9-3 means we lost on the road to the best 3 teams on the schedule, and we beat up only "cupcakes." That's not a terrible point. But when you examine the annual war of attrition we call SEC football season, I think the record demonstrates that 9-3 is anything but mediocre. Like the quote says, I don't think "mediocre" means what you think it means, Fire Les Miles Crowd.

Using what I consider to be the Bible of college football, Phil Steele's College Football Preview, I went back and looked at the records of every SEC team from 1998 to 2005. That's 8 seasons per team, and 12 teams total for 96 total "seasons." Let's look at how many times an SEC team managed a "non-mediocre" 0, 1 or 2 loss season:

Undefeated: TN 1998 (MNC)
AU 2004 (shafted)

1 loss: UGA 2002 (finished #4)
LSU 2003 (MNC)

2 losses: 15 times

So that's 19 total "non-mediocre" seasons in 8 years, which equate to 96 seasons. That's just under 20%. Any given team in the SEC has a 20% chance of pleasing the Fire Les Miles Crowd that thinks LSU should lose no more than 2 games every year.

AHA!, you say. The SEC has several bottom feeders that artificially deflate this number. Of course they do. LSU really only competes with 5 other schools - UGA, UF, TN, AU and Bama. Arky and USC are in the Twilight Zone between the big boys and the cellar, but I'll leave them out for now. Only 2 seasons above were turned in by non-"big boy" teams: Arkansas in 1998 and Miss St. in 1999. So take 17 "non-mediocre" seasons out of 48 (8 years x 6 big boys) and you end up with 35%. So even the "big boys" have only a 35% chance of making the Fire Les Miles Crowd happy.

So let's move on to the larger picture. Someone with more time, industry and computer skills than I could probably find 20 posts stating that they expect LSU to lose only 1 or 2 games EVERY YEAR. These people swear up and down that they don't accept "mediocrity" in their own lives, and by God won't accept it from LSU football.

[Again, it's hateful and mean-spirited, but I'd love to examine the personal lives of some of these people. You really ground your kids for B+'s? If not, you clearly don't care if your kids get a mediocre education. You really drive a Volvo S-80, the safest car on the road? You must not care if your kids die if not. I digress.]

So let's look at how the "non-mediocre" seasons were distributed among the big boys:

AU - 2
LSU - 3
Bama - 2
UGA - 3
UF - 3
UT - 4

Look how evenly they're spread out over each team's 8 seasons. NOBODY is better than half. And the team that is, TN, mixed in a 5-6 campaign last year, including a home loss to Vanderbilt. Everyone else is pretty much right there with LSU - 3 "non-mediocre" seasons out of 8. In fact, LSU leads the SECW in this category.

And how far did the big boys fall in their "mediocre" years? Consider:

In the 3 years before 12-0, AU lost 13 games (7-4, 8-4, 7-5), leading to PetrinoGate.

UT's current streak is 8-4, 10-2, 9-3, 5-6. They got hammered in recruiting last year.

UF has lost at least 3 games every year since 2002. And before you play the Zook card, realize that they went 9-2, 9-3, 9-2 from '98 to '00.

Bama's been sucn a mess, I won't even bore you with the numbers.

Only UGA would have satisfied the Fire Les Miles Crowd recently, with a recent run of 12-1, 10-3, 9-2, 10-2. Of course, this year's CU squeaker, Vandy HC loss and Miss St squeaker would have the Fire Les Miles Crowd screaming for Richt's head as well.

My point, and I do have one, is this. No SEC team, in the past 8 years, has gone on and sustained a run of 0, 1 and 2 loss seasons for any longer than 2 years. AU will have a 3 year run if they beat UGA and Bama this year, but their coach was also a frog's hair from being fired 2 seasons ago. UGA was on the cusp, but they just lost to Vandy on Homecoming.

You people in the Fire Les Miles Crowd think Saban built a program that should go no worse than 10-2 every year? Fine. Expect what you want. People in Hell expect ice water, I suppose. I'm not telling you to live and die with the team, or to stop thinking LSU should in the SECCG hunt every year. I do both of those things every year.

But know also that you are asking for an UNPRECEDENTED level of success from Les Miles - a level that has not been sustained in the SEC by Steve Spurrier, Phil Fulmer, Mark Richt or, to date, Tommy Tuberville. If you really think it's good for the program to hold LSU to that kind of a standard, then by all means do so.

But you're wrong. And it's not.

 

Quote:

For losing to a top ten team whose only loss is to a top ten team? Our Tigers have had their share of bad luck and we'll pull it off anyway but sounds a little harsh to me.

I agree, and this is not to call anyone out, it's a post in another thread but it speaks to your point. I'll add that each is entitled to their opinion and even though I might not agree, I respect their position if it's has basis but I don't understand where some of these are being formed.

Maybe I'm missing something.

 

anyone that remembers lsu's modern era coaching history would be simpathic with the "fire clm" crowd. i dont know if clm is more like saban or archer, but i understand how tiger fans are worried about it.

 

Way to go Martin Blank. Normally, facts have little effect in tempering the coaching criticisms here, but your presentation has stymied their ability to "Yeah, but..." I fear the title of your thread may intimidate a lot of posters into thinking the subject is over their heads, thus, they won't bother reading it. It is so refreshing to hear from someone who feels, as I do, that this is a glorious era for LSU football. The doomsayers need to relax and enjoy what's happening. There is no Curley Hallman trying to escape from the body of Les Miles.

 

Just curious.... what if, just what if LSU loses to every ranked team this year, although they've been blowing out the pansy teams? Will your tune change then? I'm giving Les the rest of this year and next before I choose whether or not I think he should go.

 

I thought this was a very interesting analysis. I'd really be curious (but not curious to figure it out myself) to see how other conferences compared in terms of 0, 1, 2 loss teams and how they're spread out.

 

Well, first off, I don't think anyone in power at LSU gives a rat's ass what you decide should be done with the coaching staff, but, to answer your question, my tune seldom changes. I don't live in fear of LSU losing games. I love to watch the Tigers and I enjoy watching these guys because they are very, very good. If they lose, I mentally deal with it in my own way ( I have a life which is little affected by the fortunes of any football team) but my attitude is that these guys are good and it's the other teams that should be worried about getting blemishes on their record.

 

curley didnt inherit a good team with great talent.

 

Well, first off, I never said they would. It's called an opinion, a thought, or a 'tune,' pal. Chill out. You were probably pro-Hallman and pro-Dinardo for the sake of not saying anything bad about LSU and noticing obvious flaws and repetitive mistakes in coaching.

 

Nor did Curley bring in any talent remotely resembling the type that Les has recruited to LSU. Don't you see the idiocy in demanding that Miles do things with Saban's talent that Saban never did himself?