If LSU is to make it to the Sugar Bowl, it must win the remainder of its games (Alabama, Ole Miss, and Arkansas). This will not be easy. Then LSU will have to defeat the SEC East representative (at this point it looks like Florida should make it -- especially if they beat FSU. But should UF lose to FSU and Tennesseee beat Miami, who knows what will happen). The two most critical non-LSU games look to be FSU vs Florida and USC vs UCLA. Here's a list of the top teams, who they play, and some commentary. Oklahoma: Should we even question that this team will be in the national title? They're clearly the best team in the nation. But we know how quickly that can change. They have games left hosting Texas A&M and Baylor. Should be easy wins. But the game at Texas Tech I think will be interesting. It will probably be closer than the Big XII Championship Game (which will be between the winner of the Nebraska-Kansas State game). Even should OU lose one of its remaining games, there is a good possibility that OU would still be ranked ahead of LSU. Southern Cal: the weakest team in the top 5. They have gotten much more respect than deserved because they beat a ridiculously overrated Auburn team. The Wazzou team they beat also was very overrated, as its only "quality" win was against an average Oregon team. USC has games remained at Arizona, and hosting UCLA and Oregon State. I think UCLA or OSU will upset them, more likely UCLA. If they do not lose, it will be interesting how things finish out. Florida State: The Miami loss to VA Tech hurt them a lot. I think Miami will lose again, hurting them even more. They have games remaining at Clemson, hosting NC State, which will not be easy, and #18 UF in the Swamp. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if UF is favored going into that game. It will be a great one, one I'm sure most LSU fans will be watching on Nov. 29. Teams ranked below us that could sneak past us in the rankings (BCS rankings is an entirely different, and more important, topic): Virginia Tech: games remaining at #23 Pittsburgh, at Temple, hosting Boston College, and at Virginia. Ohio State: hosting #15 Michigan State, #14 Purdue, and at #8 Michigan. If OSU wins out, OSU more than likely will pass LSU. The real question is, Will they? Highly doubtful, as anyone who saw the Penn State game saw nothing outstanding. Miami: hosting #18 Tennessee, Syracuse, Rutgers, and at #23 Pittsburgh. Even should they go undefeated, it would be very difficult to jump past LSU. Isn't it great to be in serious conversation about making it to the national title? But remember, one loss, and all the talk is moot. We have a tough road ahead of us.
Well, I can't help but think about what would have happened if we could have brought the same focus we've brought the last three weeks to the Florida game... There would be no questions, no commentary, and no BCS wondering... We would be #2, and we'd be on a collision course against the team I want the most... I seriously like our chances against ANY team in the nation right now. I don't think there's a team left on our schedule that we can't annihalate.
I think it is very likely that Ohio St. loses again, FSU loses to UF, and probably Miami will lose. My question is, does a SECCG win let us leapfrog USC? It seems that a 12-1 team with a QW tastes Sugar before a 11-1 team without, but that would make too much sense to be correct.
This week LSU will drop 3.5 points from its BCS from the AP/ESPN Polls average (assuming the AP has LSU at #4, which I think isn't a terrible assumption.) We will probably gain .4 points if USC drops from #4 to #8 in the BCS as it did in the ESPN Poll. What is killing our BCS rating is the computer rating average. These ratings are also polls, but computed by computers. Last week LSU was ranked #14 by one of these. If we can get that down to where it belongs (4 or 5), we will be in great shape. That will drop us another 4 points. Remember, LSU's BCS rating dropped from 26.54 to 18.68 in one week. Should the the computers drops us to 5, we will probably have a BCS rating around 11 this week. Mu guess is our rating will be around 12.5, though. This will put us very close to FSU and USC.
A win the SECCG win couldn't hurt but a loss could be catastrophic. Tennessee saw this happen in 2001. If there had been no SECCG then they would have gone to the Rose Bowl. If we are #3 or lower then a title game can help us. If we are #2 we got to hold on for dear life.
Unless the computer ratings keep Miami among the top 5, which is possible, LSU will more than likely be ahead of Miami in the BCS. For those of you worrying about VA Tech jumping us in the BCS, it won't happen this week. VA Tech has too much ground to cover, as they weren't even ranked top 15 last week. Expect them to be around 10 in the BCS this week. My comment about FSU being hurt by Miami's loss to VA Tech in the top post really shouldn't be there. It hurts them very little, except in their SOS.
In the projected rankings at the end of "Gameday Final", LSU came in at #6... But, those were based on 'projected' AP/SID (I mean, Coaches, LOL) polls... So, we're not really sure...
I was surprised LSU went to 4 in the ESPN poll, as the ESPN poll had us at 8 last week behind Ohio State. I can't imagine LSU being 6 in the Coaches poll this week, as I think 5 is likely, but 4 isn't out of the question.
