Current Polls: Obama 50 % McCain 44 % Likely Voters: Obama 47 % McCain 44 % Obama Minimum Projected: 228 Maximum Projected: 419 Most Likely: 352 Locks > 15 pts 55 California 31 New York 21 Illinois 15 New Jersey 12 Massachusetts 11 Washington 10 Maryland .7 Oregon .7 Connecticut .4 Hawaii .4 Rhode Island .4 Maine .3 District of Columbia .3 Delaware .3 Vermont Heavy Leans > 10 pts 17 Michigan 10 Minnesota .7 Iowa .4 New Hampshire Leans > 4 pts 21 Pennsylvania 20 Ohio 13 Virginia 10 Wisconsin .9 Colorado .5 Nevada .5 New Mexico Toss Up <= 4 pts 27 Florida 15 North Carolina 11 Missouri 11 Indiana .3 North Dakota .3 Montana McCain Minimum Projected: 124 Maximum Projected: 305 Most Likely: 186 Locks > 15 pts 9 Louisiana 9 Alabama 7 Oklahoma 6 Arkansas 5 Nebraska 5 Utah 4 Idaho 3 Wyoming 3 Alaska Heavy Leans > 10 pts 34 Texas 11 Tennessee .8 Kentucky .8 South Carolina .6 Mississippi .6 Kansas Leans > 4 pts 15 Georgia .5 Arizona .5 West Virginia .3 South Dakota Toss Up <= 4 pts 27 Florida 15 North Carolina 11 Missouri 11 Indiana .3 North Dakota .3 Montana Analysis: This is Obama's election to lose. The only thing preventing him from what appears is a most likely victory will be voter turnout. In regards to the likely voters poll, Obama's lead decreases from 6 points to only 3, which is within the margin of error (i.e., tossup). In order for McCain to have a chance, he must take Florida as well as nearly every tossup state. It also appears McCain would have to take Ohio. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are on the border of being heavy leans, and if you count just those 2 states for Obama he projects out to 259, 11 electoral votes shy of victory. It's a long shot for McCain, at best.
Are we assuming the electoral college votes in line with the voters? I thought they could vote any way they wanted?
Even if you give McCain all of the tossup states, he would still need to win Ohio and Virginia (Obama leans) just to get to 260. This means he has to win 2 of the 3 out of Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada (all Obama leans). Talk about an uphill climb.
Not exactly. Electors are not required by federal law to honor a pledge, however in the overwhelming majority of cases they do vote for the candidate to whom they are pledged. Additionally some states have laws designed to ensure that electors vote for pledged candidates. Louisiana is not one. LINK
