The case against LSU fans pulling for a Georgia rematch in Atlanta

According to the BCS's "quality win" clause, a team that has a victory over a top 10 BCS team will get points deducted from its overall BCS score (The top two teams with the lowest point totals in the BCS rankings play in the BCS championship game).

If you defeat the #1 ranked team, then you receive 1.0 points. #2, you receive .9 points. #3, .8 points. On a sliding scale. I'm sure you get the idea by now.

For an LSU related example.

LSU beat #7 UGA early in the season. At the time, LSU received .3 points.

There are some interesting aspects about this clause in the BCS calculations. Among others, it's a dynamic that constantly changes based on your defeated opponents rankings in the BCS rankings themselves.

To go back to the LSU example, since Georgia has now moved up, LSU now actually has somewhere around .6 points for the Quality win against UGA, because of their steady ascension in the polls since we defeated them in Tiger Stadium.

Here is-in my opinion-the most interesting aspect of the "Quality Win" clause in the BCS calculations.

If a team beats a team twice in the same season, they are only awarded one set of quality points for that win. What should LSU fans take from this fact?

If Georgia makes it to Atlanta, and LSU defeats them again, two things happen. First and foremost, LSU doesn't benefit from playing tough competition in the SECCG again. Secondly, its Quality Win component will actually move down. LSU will hurt itself by beating its opponent and lowering its own BCS ranking by lowering Georgia's ranking.

Then again, one must wonder what's the most advantageous thing for LSU's chances at a national title shot?

If UGA loses one of the remaining games on its schedule, that lessens the Quality Win component before LSU ever runs into the Dawgs.

After turning this over in my head more than a few times, the only positive way LSU can come out of the West into the SECCG is the following scenario:

Let UGA, UT, and UF tie and make a vote of the AD (or is it the presidents?) of the other schools vote a team other than UGA in. In this way, even though UGA might have taken a loss at UF, their BCS ranking isn't lowered by LSU in a loss (which would convesely lower LSU's own quality win deduction, thereby hurting LSU).

Is anyone else confused?

 

I want Florida

We were talking about this yesterday and to me, we played and beat Georgia. It would look better getting Florida again in the SECCG and tearing them a new one.......even if means a lower BCS ranking. I would like that everybody we played, we beat.

 

Re: I want Florida

I can agree with that. Really, this is a lose-lose situation. No way does Florida get into the Top 10 this season. The one good thing to beating Georgia again would be that the AP and Coaches poll should take notice to that. I really do think that beating Florida would prove that the first game was us not being prepared. We shall see how it goes.

 

With LSU and Georgia being the only two SEC teams in the top15 of the BCS it makes things diffucult. Perhaps someone else can sneak in to the Top 15, we beat them and get at least some bonus points. But the next best teams in the West, Arky and Ole Miss, I don't see them getting into the rankings and staying there after a possible loss to LSU. While we would lose on quality win points, we could only hope that it moves us up in the rankings and computer scores.

 

I think beating UGA in the SECCG, assuming we both run the table, would be more impressive than beating UT or UF. Most people understand how difficult it is to beat someone twice in the same year. LSU's stock would shoot up if that happened!

But, we are getting ahead of ourselves ...

 

I think Florida does have a chance to make it into the top 10. There are a lot of teams ahead of them that still have to play each other. Also, UF still has games remaining against #4 Georgia, #5 FSU, and South Carolina (who is currently unranked, but at 5-3 could be ranked by the time they play UF). When we were 5-3 in 2001 I dont even think we were ranked, but we ended up very nearly cracking the top 10 before the SECCG. Theyre almost in the top 20 now, and have better competition left than what we had.

Either way, I dont think it really matters. True, you dont get quality win points, but you do still get credit for the win. If we were to play and beat UGA again, I think the difference in quality win points we would have received versus the boost we would get in SOS and the human polls would be negligible. Besides, in order for UF to get to Atlanta, they would have to beat UGA anyway. That would give UGA 2 losses. Currently, the highest ranked 2 loss team is Michigan at 12. If UGA dropped out of the top 10, we wouldnt get any bonus points at all and would have to hope that they would climb back up.

I think we need to be a little realistic here. We have still have a measurable chance at making the Sugar, but it wont be easy. We first have to handle the rest of the teams on our schedule, which will be difficult in itself, and the East champion. Assuming we do that and there are no major upsets to the team ahead of us (though a couple do still play each other) we will end up at worst #5 going into championship week. This is assuming that we will be #7 in the BCS poll released later, and that the top 6 teams in the AP and coaches poll will also be 1-6 in the BCS. USC and WSU play each other this weekend, so assuming we beat Tech, that will put as at #6. Now, lets look at what the teams ahead of us are still facing.

#1 Oklahoma:

They still have to face the bane of all Oklahoma fans for 5 of the last 7 years: Oklahoma St. This isnt the same type of team that Oklahoma has had in all those losses, though. These guys are playing the best football in the country. Other than OK St., Texas Tech is the only remaining threat on their schedule, and they are looking more mediocre as the weeks progress. They do still have the Big 12 CG, though.

#2 Miami:

Miami has the toughest road ahead of any team ahead of us. They will be at #11 VT this week, and you can bet the Hoakies will have something to prove. I know it will pain us all to pull for these bastards after what they did to our schedule, but we need them to win. However, even if they dont, they still have #18 Tennessee at home and then have to go to #23 Pitt. Say what you want about UT, but they do manage to win, and Pittsburgh has possibly the most athletic player in the country in Larry Fitzgerald.

#3 USC:

They have #6 Wazzou this week, and that may be their only other losable game. After that, their toughest contests will be against a struggling UCLA team, and a still potent Oregon State.

#4 UGA:

Doesnt really matter. Either they win out and go to the SECCG, and we would have to beat them anyway, or they get beat before then, causing us to jump them earlier.

#5 FSU:

Florida has played pretty good defense these last couple of weeks, and Leak has minimized the mental errors. I expect FSU to get all they want from Florida, and hopefully get beat by them. This will help our SOS and make the UF loss look a little less out of character. Other than that NC State is FSU only remaining competition.

#6 Washington State:

How stupid does Mike Price feel? I think we need them to beat USC because it doesnt look like anyone else will be able to. If they do, we have to hope that they will lose to either UCLA or Arizona State. ASU has a talented team and may be the only team left that can beat them.

It is possible that even if these teams do all win out (with the exception of WSU and USC playing each other), we could still leap frog to the head of the pack of 1 loss teams with a win over the SEC East champion in the SECCG. It may be best for us to play UGA in that scenario. The only team ahead of us with a championship game of their own is Oklahoma, and they were not overly impressive against Colorado last week. This was partly due to Oklahoma's 4 fumbles (3 of which were lost), but if they cant do better than that against 111th ranked defense in the nation, the are going to have trouble against the Nebraska defense, who looks to be heading for the Big 12 North championship while ranked 1st in pass effinciency defense, 3rd in total defense, 2nd in scoring defense, and 1st in turnover margin.
The stars could align just right, but it is out of our hands. We will have to just wait and watch.

 

And win!!!

 

SEC Championship

:geaux: I expected to see the real championship last Saturday night. I had no idea Auburn would be that bad. Now I don't know if we are that good or did Auburn have an off night. What if Auburn beats Georgia, and Georgia beats Florida? What does the SEC Championship mean after that? Remember we still have Alabama to play, and they always play there best game against us when we are ranked and they are not. Luckily we play on our home field in Tuscaloosa. Let's get by Ole Miss and then we'll talk some more. Saban, Keep them focused. I mean like tunnel vision on just the next opponent.:lsug:

 

If anyone, I would want to play LSU in the SECCG.

 

You may get your wish

If I am right Ga beat UT Auburn beat UT and LSU ran all over Ga and Auburn did not even show up . The more I think about it I would like to see LSU and Ga. , in the SEC Championship Game. It might be a little closer but LSU will still win the game .