Which hypothetical schedule is more difficult? Playing A) Texas, USC, Eastern Michigan, and Massachusetts or B) Stanford, Colorado State, Toledo, and Missouri Even though everyone would elect A (since you have a high probability of getting beat twice), schedule B is considered more difficult. The problem is that it is a simple average of the opponents that you've played. Schedule A has an average of 50.5 because you've played number 1, 2, 99, and 100 whereas schedule B has an average of 46.25 because you've played 42, 46, 48, and 49 (based on Sagarin ratings). Even though SOS is out of the BCS, it still remains in the computer polls and I believe this is the major reason LSU is ranked so low in the computers and therefore getting dinged in the BCS.
1) I humbly submit that the only reason LSU is "getting dinged in the BCS" is that you lost to Tennessee. 2) I further submit that a good trouncing of an over-rated Bama will cure the "Dinging syndrome".:yelwink2:
A couple things you overlook with your post. First, several computers (Colley Matrix, Kenneth Massey for sure) don't factor in WHO you lose to. Just that you had a loss. Second, "a good trouncing" of Bama doesn't move us up in the computers anymore than a 1 point last second field goal. Computers don't have margin of victory.
Fair enuf.... my comments were more related to "dinged by the BCS", which would include all elements of that fine consortium of well-meaning imposters. Big wins may not count in computers, but they sure seem to affect the computer programmer from time to time :shock: .
Sorry, you're right, you did say BCS. For some reason I read "computers." I think it's because most of the original post was dealing with the computers and SOS.
When i say "dinged by the bcs", I'm talking about the computers. I think the human polls have us fairly valued right now. However, we're a little low in the BCS due to the fact that SOS (per my original post) is hurting our computer rankings. In order for LSU to make it to the Rose Bowl, we obviously need to win out (pretty tough feat) and USC or Texas to get beat (probably soundly). In addition, I think we'll need Miami and Penn St to lose. Even though we may jump Penn St. due to our SOS rising considering SEC champ game, I think the media would love to see Joe Pa get a chance at a national championship game. I don't think we need to worry about anybody else. Great thing is that after 8 games, we still have a chance (even though it's a long shot).
I think if Penn State was going to jump us in the human polls, they would have already done so. They have one game left this season, we have 3 minimum. They have already played the games they could gain voters with. If we beat Bama next week, we should be in front of Penn State to stay in the human polls.
I hope you're right DH. I just think there is a realistic chance of Penn St. jumping LSU in the human polls if it comes down to LSU/Penn St for the number 2 slot (due to the Joe Pa love fest).
If that happens, it would have to be week after next when LSU plays Ole Miss and Penn State plays Michigan State. After that game, Penn State's off for the rest of the regular season. If the voters were to move Penn State up the week LSU (hypothetically) wins the SEC Championship game, while Penn State hadn't played a game in two weeks, there should be an uproar that would make USC being left out in 2003 look tame.
I agree, SOS is not weighted near the way it should be, playing a 99 should not be any worse than laying a 75. The amount that most of them give for playing on the road is skewed a lot. So many variables that are just not handled correctly IMO.
