Florida, as islstl said in another thread, if Florida loses we are probably going to the Rose Bowl but if Florida wins we are definitely going to the Rose Bowl. So it becomes probably vs. definitely and definitely wins in that scenario.
USC vs. UCLA will be at 3:30 The Florida vs. Arkansas game will start at 6:00 PM If USC loses, it probably doesn't really matter much about Florida since LSU SHOULD finish at #4 in the BCS. I guess for good measure we could hope for Florida losing to assure that of happening (in case the silly human voters drop USC 1 spot ahead of LSU in the polls due to a close loss by USC). Then LSU gets the automatic bid at #4. If USC wins, we want Florida to win. That part is easy. Refer to mobius's post....that is exactly right. Happy viewing.
We are at No. 5 right now. It's sort of a win-win in either situation (as long as someone doesn't jump us from behind, like Louisville). Florida loses, we should move up to No. 4 and be guaranteed a spot. Florida wins, Florida goes to the Sugar, and we should be an attractive at-large team.
it seems to me that whether Florida wins or loses, we are going to be the "attractive" BCS at large pick from the SEC - I am happy with Rose or Orange, just as long as it is BCS. With that said, I think Arkansas is going to run all over Florida.
Here are scenarios based on percentages to help everyone out: 1. USC loses, Florida loses....................100.0 percent (LSU moves to #3 in BCS, automatic bid is granted) 2. USC loses, Florida wins......................99.8 percent (LSU "should" move to #4 in BCS, automatic bid would then be granted) 3. USC wins, Florida wins.......................99.0 percent (LSU "should" get at-large over Auburn, West Virginia and Virginia Tech) 4. USC wins, Florida loses......................65.0 percent (LSU "hopefully" gets at-large over Florida) Note: this assumes Louisville winning the Big East and not available as an at-large possibility, otherwise if Rutgers upsets WVU, then Louisville being an at-large berth would lower options 2 thru 4 somewhat slightly (subtract 10 percent a piece). Increase the margin in #4 for every point that Arkansas beats Florida. For instance, should Arkansas win 34-17, then our percentages go up to 82 percent (add the 17 point margin of victory). The higher the margin of victory, the less likely the Rose Bowl will want anything to do with Florida. If Arkansas wins 50-14, please don't add 36 to the percentage, as it will overflow to 101 percent, which will self-destruct this entire system (i kid, i kid).
Ok, got it. So let's say Florida wins and goes to the Sugar, BUT loses and LSU goes to the Rose and wins. Would we be possibly looking at a top #2 or 3 ranking when it's all said and done? I'm thoroughly happy with being #5 right now. Take away a couple turnovers against FL and just one terrible call against AU, and .....well, you know.
LSU will finish #2 in the nation if Ohio State beats USC, Florida loses either against Arkansas or the Sugar Bowl, and LSU beats Michigan.
I'd prefer going to the SEC Championship game obviously but at least our coaches can spend time recruiting this week. Finally, a week that we can all relax for a bit.
