Whoa! Do the link to his updated BCS final prediction if LSU and USC win out. He indicates a TIE in the BCS at 7.11 for the number 2 spot. Plus, I think his projections assume the higher rated BCS teams winning out in all games. What happens if, say, Florida beats FSU? I think that means a 12-1 LSU gets Sugar! Also, he doesn't assume LSU will get to number 2 in all the computer polls. If they do, LSU at 12-1 wins again! http://geocities.com/rtell/
Pure madness, folks, pure madness. This is somewhat corroborated, since I did see someone else compute a possible tie elsewhere on Monday. Nonetheless, if this happens LSU wins the tiebreaker by a comfortable margin, as even a Georgia with a loss to LSU in the SEC CG finishes ahead of Washington State. I think it's time to start giving props to those who kept saying, "to hell with the computers, for as long as we win out we'll go to the Sugar Bowl" because, lo and behold...they may be right. I seriously got chills typing that last paragraph. LSU playing for the national title, perhaps a once in a lifetime experience...and it would be in New Orleans. A-ma-zing, folks, simply amazing.
Yep, I just double-checked and Jerry Palm projected LSU passing USC in all computer polls except maybe Colley, so Tellshow projecting a narrow LSU #2 ranking in Colley come Dec. 8 matches what Palm projects for the most part; Tellshow does not project us winning all of the polls (looks like 5 of 7 to me), which is why our computer average is not a flat 2.0 (I'm guessing we're projected to get to #2 in 5 of the polls, #3 in another and #4 or above---the poll which gets tossed---in the 7th and final poll. This works since 13 divided by 6 is the 2.17 comp. average shown by Tellshow...meaning that crazy-a*s poll that would have a 12-1 LSU at 4th or higher is almost certainly NYT.) Now, there is still a fair amount of variation possible in the final strength of schedule rankings, though odds are more chips fall LSU's way than USC's the next two weeks, which is why everyone is projecting an LSU advantage in strength of schedule. Also, Tellshow's projections still assume an LSU-Georgia SEC Title game, a fairly safe assumption, as is the Ga. #10 BCS ranking after the SEC CG (as you can see, there is a wide spread between a 3-loss Georgia and Iowa, the #11 BCS team in his projections. Georgia would literally have to fall 12 or more spots after an LSU loss, a highly unlikely event since it would be a very good #3 LSU team beating them. making their loss very respectable and not worthy of a massive drop in the polls). Finally, Tellshow's projection assumes a Fla. St win this weekend over Florida. If the Gators win---I'd put the odds at better than 50% since they are playing in Gainsville and Fla. ST. is without star WR Craphonso (what a name, eh?) Thorpe---and do not win the SEC East, they finish, after Georgia falls past them after the SEC title game, at #9 (or #8, if Miami loses to Pitt) in the pre-bowl / post December 6 AP and ESPN polls, or some 11 or 12 spots higher than Tellshow projects. If this happens, their BCS ranking as of Dec. 8 is at a minumum some 11 /12 points lower than Tellshow projects, something which very well could result in BOTH Florida and Georgia landing in the BCS top 10 come Dec. 8. Let's say, for argument's sake, it's Fla at #9 and Ga. at #10. If this happens, Fla's top 10 computer, BCS and SoS rankings (Tellshow projects their schedule to be 4th hardest by season's end) would, I would think, be high enough alone to nudge down LSU's SoS score enough to break the tie (even a 0.01 pt drop in the SoS rating from 1.04 to 1.03 does the trick). In short, my friends, if the Tigers win out and a fair number of the teams we want to win do so (Alabama, Arizona, La. Tech, N. Texas, Georgia, Florida...just to name a few), we're in. That simple: we're in.
Dreaming again, it's not Simple. And, if we don't get AP Poll Validation ... it's not gonna happen. Happy to see the Computer poll numbers drop, but there's too much uncertainty there ... and you know it. We'll see ... but, if LSU beats the crap out of ARK & GA ... see my earlier definition ... and gets to #2 AP ... THEN NO ONE CAN SAY SHITTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT. LSU earned their shot ... were #2 ... voted there by the best damned sports poll in America ... tried and true, red, white & blue ... ALL AMERICAN ... AP POLL
We're getting very few #2 votes in either poll, so passing USC in even one of the two is very unlikely, barring the unexpected. In fact, as word begins to circulate that LSU will pass USC in almost all of the computer polls, I believe that will make it MORE likely voters will fight to keep USC at #2 since the public perception right now is USC has done nothing to lose their #2 ranking.
interesting thought about "perceptions". You may be right about LSU not passing USC in the AP poll. LSU put themselves in that soup by "NIPPING" the runts of the SEC ... the term used by the media "NIPPING". I got 10 tons of shitt in here for saying it. What will these "non-Pac-10" AP voters think about a huge GA loss? After a huge LSU win over Ark? The TALKING HEADS are our #1 allies now ... they keep giving LSU no respect and they'll blow GA's bugle in Atlanta until kickoff ... that's our best shot. SOS & all these polls ... we're still short ... I don't see the math happening. If we start a domino effect ... like you said in the computer polls ... in 6 of 7 (screw the NYT) and are #2 in 4 polls ... the AP will start to come around. 65 points to go to catch 'em ... and you know we could have beaten that LAME OLE MISS OFFENSE to death with a decent offensive showing. Hell, I didn't think we'd close 13 points with a 3 point win ... but we did. We can still get to #2 ... I'm praying every night to God, and the next vote is critical ... Arkansas must be CRUSHED ... and Oregon State must give USC a great game. We'll have to kill 'em.
ramah, I'm starting to believe that LSU can catch them even if we don't move up at all in the AP or ESPN polls. That's the point of the BCS in the first place, right? To take other things into consideration... it will undoubtedly be harder to do this way, of course. But it's apparently there is a realistic chance. I do agree that we should CRUSH Arkansas though!
