Results LSU wants to see this weekend: BCS Style

LSU's BCS Cheat Sheet

(BCS rankings listed when applicable)

4 LSU over 15 Ole Miss
Reason: DUH!

UCLA over 3 USC
Reason: DUH!

9 Michigan over 2 Ohio State
Reason: DUH!

USM over TCU
Reason: TCU is ahead of LSU in several computer polls and is costing LSU more BCS points in realtion to USC.

Washington over 10 Wash. St
Reason: Kill off Quality win point for USC, but does strengthen Ohio State’s SOS since they played Washington.

Oregon over Oregon St.
Reason: Weakens USC’s SOS (ex-opponent loss to non-opponent).

Alabama over Auburn
Reason: Weakens USC’s SOS (ex-opponent loss to non-opponent).

Army over Hawaii
Reason: Weakens USC’s SOS in a HUGE way if an ex-opponent loses to an 0-11 team.

Utah over BYU
Reason: Weakens USC’s SOS (ex-opponent loss to non-opponent).

Air Force over San Diego State
Reason: Weakens Ohio State’s SOS (ex-opponent loss to non-opponent).

Maryland over NC State
Reason: Weakens Ohio State’s SOS (ex-opponent loss to non-opponent).

Ball State over 20 Bowling Green
Reason: Weakens Ohio State’s SOS (ex-opponent loss to non-opponent).

Illinois over Northwestern
Reason: Weakens Ohio State’s SOS (ex-opponent loss to non-opponent).

UL- Monroe over Troy State
Reason: Strengthens LSU’s SOS (ex-opponent beats non-opponent).

South Carolina over Clemson
Reason: Strengthens LSU’s SOS (ex-opponent beats non-opponent).

Vanderbilt over 7 Tennessee:
Reason: Not cut and dry here. Assuming UGA wins out, getting and winning a rematch with Florida can likely happen only with a Tennessee loss. If UGA loses one of its last 2 games, Tennessee winning out and reaching the SECC game while being in the BCS top 10 would be good for LSU. The best scenario appears to be Florida somehow jumping Tennessee in the BCS standings while UGA, UT, and UF all win out. This way, LSU keeps its quality win bonus over UGA (stays 10-2 and high in the BCS top 10) and gets a chance to add a new win and up themselves in the computers.

Kentucky over 6 UGA:
Reason: The bad side is we lose our quality win bonus if UGA loses and drops from the BCS top 10. As we know now, rematches are not rewarded hardly at all in the BCS formula. A UGA loss weakens our SOS for now, but provides an opportunity to up SOS in the SECC game. Too confusing, I know.

 

I am going to need to make a cheat sheet for this Saturday

 

We need a 10-2 Tennessee in the SECCG. I hope all our eastern brethren win out and Tenn gets the pick. I think beating Florida would be great, don't get me wrong, but, I think Tenn would stay in the top 10 if we beat them, we get to keep UGA as a quality win as they move up to a number 4? in the BCS and I think beating UGA again won't WOW the pollsters as would a win over Tenn or Fla. If we get an east team with less than 10 wins it weakens our SOS.

Anyway go EAST!!!

 

No, not really. Think about this. How do we get Tennessee? It would have to come at the expense of a Georgia loss. They're is NO other way for it to happen. If Georiga loses, they loses their QW.

Florida is our best bet. It lets Georgia keep their QW, and it lets us show the pollsters that the first game was a fluke. The fact that Florida has three losses instead of Two doesn't hurt us too much. It will still boost our SOS by a lot, and by that time I don't believe we'll need much.

For Florida to get in, one of two things needs to happen:
1) A Tennessee loss to either Vandy or to Kentucky. Not sure either will happen. Or

2) Florida to catch Tennessee in the BCS and stay within 5 spots of Georgia.

I actually believe the second could happen if Florida beats Florida State. I could see Florida getting enough of a boost to hop Tennessee because Tennessee will fall because of their weak remaining schedule.

 

My head hurts...

 

Remember that an Ohio State loss is a must. If they beat Michigan, we will never pass them.

 

Dark Hornet is right about Florida possibly getting within 5 spots of Jawga w/ the Fla. State win and Tenn's free-fall in SoS the next 2 weeks. It'll be close.

If that happens, that should be enough since Ga. gives us more quality win points than Wash St gives USC.

 

you can take out all the stuff about ohio state, there is no way lsu passes OSU without them lossing. the only things that matter are our SOS, and USC's.

 

Actually, what I'd be afraid of is if there is a possibility that Ohio State could stay ahead of us even with a loss. There SOS is much higher than ours. That would be my concern.

 

Good post jwho77.