Re: Iraqi independence spells trouble for who?

Try to get a bomb-sniffing dog to check out your car too. Just a thought.

I would definitely say Iran. The youth there want a change, it's just a matter of time. If Iraq succeeds, and it will (unless Kerry wins in November), Iran is soon to follow.

Turkey, Jordan and Saudi Arabian governments are already pro-American, per se.

So that leaves Syria and it's colonial possession Lebanon leftover. At that point they can either choose to die for an unjust cause or get with the program.

Another generation from now, the Middle East is a totally different political landscape. All thanks to a President that had the guts to do what is right.

Thank you George W. Bush. This will be as significant a change as Reagan winning the cold war when all is said and done.

 

Sudan is also in the current bullseye. Colin Powell gave them a fairly blunt warning yesterday. The Sudanese government is authorizing Arab militias to kill thousands of black Africans. Al Qaeda has a long presence there, as well. This time we are lining up international support.

Powell in the Sudan

Neither Bush nor any succeeding president is going to be rashly invading another country anytime soon. It would be domestic political suicide and our enemies know it. That is bad, because Iran, Syria, Pakistan, and Korea could be major military problems soon. Two, possibly three, are nuclear capable opponents.

Even China is making aggressive military maneuvers and belligerent rhetoric about taking Taiwan by force. The US is obligated by treaty to defend Taiwan. But China is clearly tempted by the thought that the US is not currently likely to risk American casualties to defend Taiwan. Especially while the army and marines are still mired in Iraq.

Any of the potential enemies mentioned above may try to exploit the fact that we are not completely capable of fighting two wars at once. We need to disentangle, refit, regroup, and augment the military and get ready for what will be needed in the next decade, which may not be pretty. Right now we are stretched very thin with all of our reserves activated and deployed.

The next crisis could come from a half-dozen different places. Prudence would suggest that the US prepare for all contingencies, but wait until the decisive strategic moment before taking action. It does no good to flatten Syria, if it is Korea that turns out to be the biggest and most immediate threat.

 

True, war with China would severely impact our economy with the losses of all those sneakers and T-shirts. We really can't afford war with China and maintain our easy lifestyle.

On the other hand, China needs US dollars far more than we need Chinese merchandise that can be gotten from Thailand, Mexico or elsewhere if need be. The Chinese economy would absolutely collapse with no inflow of dollars. This is why they backed down so fast over the recconaisance plane collision incident and gave up the plane and crew. They simply cannot risk a war with the US. A simple naval blockade would cripple China in months.

China is getting rich trading with the US. They have to be careful about Taiwan and they will not underestimate the US response. They have seen what happened to Japan in 1945 and to Iran in 2003. But they must be tempted when they see us committed elsewhere.

 

A true statement if there ever was one.

But it must not be forgotton that Pakistan already has an Islamic Bomb and missiles capable of hitting US forces in Afghanistan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Diego Garcia, Kuwait, D'Jbouti, Bahrain, Turkey, Oman, and the 5th Fleet anchorages. Pakistan is our ally today, but then so was Iran in the 1970's, right up to the point that they became our sworn enemies. Pakistan is where Bin Lauden lives. It is a mistake to trust the Paks.

And North Korea has nuclear weapons and missiles capable of hitting US territory in Alaska as well as US forces in South Korea, Japan, Okinawa, Guam, and the 7th Fleet anchorages. And the deranged midget that runs the place is just crazy enough to try us.

Iran must be handled seriously, but never to to exclusion of more immediate threats. Iran is much like the former Soviet Union, with a seething revolution brewing, way too many powerful enemies, and an economy that won't support being a nuclear power. They may very well implode in a similar fashion soon and all we have to do is be patient . . . and then laugh our asses off.