The way I see it, the biggest impact of the Palin choice was solidifying the conservative base who weren't eager to vote McCain but probably would have anyway because they wouldn't vote for Obama. I also think that the sampling size of the polls makes them almost irrelevent. When 50+million people vote, and you only poll 1000, that is .002%. No matter how you choose the group, it cannot accurately represent the general public, which is why there is the margin of error in all of those poll results. Come November, I think it will be close unless one completely demolishes the other in the debates.
how does that make her viewpoint credible, I still dont see her credibility, why because she is a woman, who doesnt like Obama. Well guess what, even Hillary Clinton and Bill O'Reilly said Obamas comment wasnt sexist.
I'll agree that polls usually swing back and forth during a close election but this election hasnt been anywhere near close until now. The democrat ticket has been way ahead for over a year in all these polls. There is clearly more happening right now that is causing a swing in opinion away from Obama and towards McCain. Agreed, for the most part. She has not given any interviews but that will change immediately. I think she is scheduled to spend this weekend giving interviews and will start appearing in front of the hard core media soon. I think it stands to reason she will be well coached and well prepared. Whether that translates to "holding up" remains to be seen. More as in how many more? The data doesnt support young people making that much of a difference in a general election. Young people are notorious for not voting while the Palin right is notorious for turning out in great numbers. I think its pretty safe to say the McCain ticket got a huge boost and swing not just from the convention but from announcing Palin. It has turned into the equalizer the republicans needed to get back in the race. Which they have done in a big way.
I never said her opinion had any credibility. I simply said that her position on it will lend credibility to the comment being "questionable". Geraldine Ferraro is not just some democrat. She is a long standing high profile democrat and former VP nominee. She is also a women and in this case that makes a difference. If she is throwing gasoline on that fire, some will pay attention and that was the point. I'll stick my neck out and say if an opinion poll comes out and that question is given to women, more will say it was sexist then wont.
Id said it would be a split, but the squeaky wheel gets the oil. Thats the biggest point in this issue, the rest is a candle in the sun.
Was the comment meant to be sexist? In my opinion, no. Was it taken as such due to the reference Palin made to wearing lipstick at the RNC, yes. Although it is a figure of speech it has sexist undertones given he is running against a presidential ticket which includes a female VP candidate. I just want this all to be over so I can vote for Jindal in 2008. He's getting a lot of positive national exposure after Gus... :thumb:
One thing that people seem to forget when bringing this up is that the popular vote means diddley. An increase in approval isn't that significant if it isn't come from the swing states. One critical state in this election is Colorado, which showed a swing from McCain to Obama after the DNC: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10 The state-by-state breakdown at the bottom really tells the story, especially when compared to the 2004 results. For the most part, states that were red in '04 will be red in '08, and vise-versa. The key for Obama will be to keep the current support of states like Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado, which all went to Bush in 2004. It is also showing Ohio as a tie right now. If Obama can lock that one down, he'd almost be unbeatable. As for Palin, I think that she will ultimately become more of a disadvantage to McCain than anything else. It sounds like she's got a lot more skeletons in the closet, and I believe that the democrats are waiting until the sugar high wears off to start bringing them to the surface. Further, people will eventually begin realizing that she actually has a substantial chance becoming president due to McCain's history of health issues. And I'm not sure that anybody really wants that. Republicans just needed something to get excited about, and she gave them that. But I seriously doubt it's lasting power.
