Playcall Analysis pt.2 - 1st Down? Jimbo Haters can gripe a little

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by Martin Blank, Nov 27, 2005.

  1. Martin Blank

    Martin Blank Freshman

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    In the interest of full disclosure, and to address the other big beef I heard a lot in South Upper 14, I went thru Jimbo's 1st down playcalling as well. Again, this includes called-back plays, and is based upon the official LSU Athletic Dept. play-by-play available at: http://www.lsusports.net/downloads1...SPID=2164&DB_OEM_ID=5200&SPSID=27815#GAME.PLY

    First Downs ONLY:

    1st half: 3 run, 7 pass
    2nd half: 13 run, 3 pass
    Game: 16 runs on 1st down, 10 passes

    "SEE ??!!??" cry the Jimbo Haters. "LSU went into its shell in the 2nd half, just like they ALWAYS DO!!!! Miles is the new Archer!!!"

    I can't completely refute that statement, as the numbers don't seem to lie. But again, let's look closer. Two of the first downs were JR scrambles - the long one where JR tripped MAY have been designed to run, but I doubt it so I consider those passing playcalls. One of the first downs was 1st and goal, and while it can be devastatingly effective to throw on 1st and goal from the 4, it's hard to argue with a run, especially since 7 of the 9 plays that got you there on this drive were runs.

    It should also be noted that the 2nd half 1st and goal run worked. So count JR's scrambles, and you're at 14 run, 12 pass on first down, giving you a First Down Pass Percentage of 47%.

    Is that a little tight? Yes, I think a bit, JimboHater Nation. I can see where you'd want 60-40 pass on first down with LSU's talent. But factor in the real world again, and I can make a decent argument in poor Jimbo's embattled favor:

    First, you've got those 7 or so dropped passes. How long should Jimbo keep pounding his head into the wall, forcing up passes to dropsied WR's and giving yourself 2nd and 10?

    Second, the first drive of the second half was a ground offensive that would have made George Patton proud - why not make ARK prove they could stop the run in the 2nd half? (They did prove it after that drive, by the way.)

    Third, like it or not, you're up 19-3 with 26 minutes to Atlanta, I don't mind pulling back the reins a little and not risking an INT to give ARK a quick score (see TENN game).

    Last, getting to a 60-40 ratio, at 26 first downs, means 16 pass plays. That's only 4 more than Jimbo called as it was (counting the scrambles). And I'd submit to you that he may have called those extra passes if Dwayne Bowe could have caught a cold on Friday.

    In sum, I believe that even the thinking man's LSU fan could brook a little dissention on Jimbo's first downs. He's not unassailably right by any means. HOWEVER, there are some real-world explanations for doing what he did, when he did it. And LSU did win the game. So whether you look at it from the fans' result-oriented view, or the Saban (and I think Miles to some extent) process-oriented view, Jimbo deserves a little warmth at most - not the Hellfire Inferno he was getting on the callin shows, and in SU14 Friday night
     

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