1. There's a thread elsewhere on the board asking everyone who THEY want to be the 2006 starting QB. The obvious answer to that question is "Whoever is good enough to win the QB battle on merit." Everyone agrees with that.

    So perhaps the better question is: "What outcome of the QB derby puts the LSU coaching staff in the best position?" And by best position, I mean current team morale, future recruiting, and use of available resources.

    I think the answer here is just as clear - Jamarcus Russell in 2006. And the main reason it's better for LSU if this comes to pass is our old friend from Macroeconomics, opportunity cost (nod your head knowingly if you had Vrooman for 2051).

    There are two commodities LSU's coaches have, to which the concept of opportunity cost is applicable - practice reps, and game-ready players. There are only x number of reps the coaches have available to get a QB ready to play, so you can almost look at them like currency - imagine Jimbo putting a penny into a Jamarcus piggy bank every time JMR runs a play in practice. Come game time, the coaches expect to open that piggy bank and use what's inside it to "buy" good plays and eventual victories.

    The staff gave Russell most of those reps (pennies) last year, starting with Spring 2005. And nearly all of them once the 2005 season started, since you stop worrying about QB development when you're trying to gameplan for, say, UGA in the SECCG. If Russell doesn't win the 2006 QB job, that's a lot of pennies just sitting on the sideline not doing you any good. Conversely, if Flynn wins the job, the coaches have to try to "buy" 9 to 11 wins with way fewer pennies than they originally intended.

    The other commodity is the players themselves. You'd like to get the most game production you can out of 3 QB's - Russell, Flynn and Perriloux. Only one plays at a time, so as Ol' Vrooman taught us, the cost of letting Russell play QB is that Flynn and Perriloux can't (not at the same time, at least). Russell as your starter costs you a year of eligibility for the Peach Bowl MVP, and the consensus #1 HS QB for 2005, so the opportunity cost is high.

    So how to minimize that cost by having only 1 QB on the sideline? You can't fix it so that 2 QB's play, but you can fix it so that only 1 stud QB has to sit - get rid of one of them. Don't freak out, now. Nobody's cutting Jamarcus Russell. And we aren't talking transfer - remember, this question is about the BEST CASE for the LSU coaches. But you CAN get rid of JMR if he plays so well in 2006 that he turns pro.

    That's possible with his track record - he's big and strong, has been a 60% passer, and could probably put on a "private workout" for the ages with that cannon arm of his. There's probably no scenario under which Flynn could play in 2006 and go pro, and RP couldn't if he wanted to because he wouldn't be at LSU 3 years. Assuming no transfers, Flynn at QB in 2006 keeps BOTH JMR and RP on the sideline for 2 more years. Same with RP, if you want to consider him. But a JMR redux in 2006, followed by a jump to the NFL, gives you 1 year of an MF/RP sideline, a 2007 with MF as a Sr. starter with RP as your mopup understudy, and 2008 with a fully groomed RP as your unquestioned starter.

    If this happens, LSU gets a full year of starting QB play from each of its 3 assets - JMR, MF and RP. It can tell recruits, and the current team, that they can't lose their job to injury (JMR). It can tell recruits, and the current team, that even though coming to a school like LSU requires you to wait your turn behind studs, you'll get your chance to shine when you've earned it (MF). And it puts your crown jewels in position to succeed, rather than setting them up for failure by throwing them to the wolves (RP).

    Let the chips fall where they may come Fall - may the best QB win. But I think that the best thing for LSU is a 2006 of JMR starter/MF mopup; a 2007 of MF starter/RP mopup, and a 2008 RS Jr. debut of RP.
  2. Martin Blank, good to see you make a post on here again! Heading out for the weekend, time to bookmark this thread. Hope to respond to it Sunday night.
  3. That's exactly what I was going to say.:wink:

    Your theory is sound. My only concern (based upon no personal knowlege whatsoever) is that RP won't be that patient.
  4. The best outcome, IMHO, is for one of them to step up, play so well it becomes obvious who should start and then lead us to a National Championship in 2006.
  5. To me, the answer is simple. MF and RP give the offense more versitility. While, of course, if MF and RP can't throw the ball, then they arent of much use to the offense. But if they have good judgement, even if they don't have JR's arm, they both have running ability that gives the offense an edge.

    3 scenarios
    Its 3rd and 4, JR drops back to pass. No one is open, so he tucks and heads for the whole that has opened in the middle. He gets run down by a linebacker and its 4th and short... (though its seems to me that JR has a more Aaron Brooksish tendency to run backwards. Yes, he is trying to make a play, but you dont run backwards, especially if you have limited speed)

    Its 3rd and 4. MF drops back to pass. No one is open, so he tucks and heads for the whole that has opened in the middle. With his pretty good speed he is able get the first and a few more. He might put a move on a defender, but I'm seeing his speed as more straight ahead. Gain of 8. 1st and ten.

    Its 3rd and 4. RP drops back to pass. No one is open, so he tucks and heads for the whole that has opened in the middle. I've never seen his speed. I've heard the Legend that is RYAN PERRILOUX. So I assume that when he hits the middle, no one is going to touch him for about 5 yards, then he is gonna be able to shake at least 2 defenders, pick up about 10 to 15...

    The benefits of a running qb are more than just his running ability. The biggest benefit is that the defense has to account for the guy. Maybe spying with a safety or a LB. When you run the ball one way and the qb does his roll to the other side, one of the defenders is going to have to go with him. Just in case. If its the backside DE or LB, that opens up a lane for the cutback. When you roll the pocket on a pass or playaction, someone is going to have to spy the qb. Every defender that has to commit to the qb is one less that is in coverage.
  6. Pennies from 2005 are a sunk cost, and sunk costs should not be factored into decisions. The pennies "just sitting on the sideline not doing you any good" have already been spent.
  7. Good post. i totally agree.

    btw: its "hole" not "whole"
  8. I beg for mercy from any econ or finance types out there. My post above is about all I know about any other economic theory other than how to balance a checkbook. I'm just making a weak stab at viewing the LSU QB race like the goy who wrote Freakonomics might.

    http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/00...f=pd_bbs_1/103-3349441-9042231?_encoding=UTF8

    It's clear that on one level, the best outcome for the coaches is for the best man to rise up, dominate the QB derby, and lead LSU to victory. If anyone thinks I'm advocating that the coaches simply hand JMR the job out of expediency, you can stop now. No one with an ounce of brains wants anyone but the best 22 out there at all times.

    What I should have stated is that from the standpoint of maxing out resources, keeping team morale up, and assuaging the concerns of incoming recruits, I think if you look at the race from an opportunity cost standpoint, the best outcome for the LSU coaching staff, and for the program as a whole, would be for Jamarcus Russell to be the one to rise up, dominate and EARN the job. By all accounts you run very little risk of Flynn transferring if that happens, especially if the coaches know JMR would jump to the NFL with another solid JMR season, giving Flynn his entire senior season to shine. RP then only has to sit one more full year before he can start getting mopup time vs. the 3 rent-a-wins, Miss St., and maybe even an OM or Ark game here or there.

    Look at the opposite. Let's say Flynn earns the job. Great on the field, but it'd take a Jedi mind-trick to get JMR to stay at LSU. It would also be very hard to convince people that JMR didn't get "Pipped" by his shoulder injury - think Tubbs and Big Dumb Ed won't use that on the recruiting trail? If Flynn earns the job, he has to play. HAS TO. But don't think it'll be the path of least resistance. I guarantee you the LSU coaches are HOPING that JMR can earn the QB job in 2006. My post was simply an attempt to look at why that's probably true, but from maybe a different angle
  9. Two observations:

    1. I don't worry about Russell's left shoulder injury much. I worry about the right wrist injury that required surgery. The injury that Miles hasn't talked about much. An injury to his throwing arm combined with his inconsistency could allow him to be passed in the spring by another Parade All-American or a bowl game MVP.

    2. Parade All-Americans just don't sit on the bench past their freshman year or they will find some greener pastures. If Perrilloux doesn't claim the starting job this season, I don't expect him to be here in 2007. If he does earn the start, I expect to see Flynn transfer (see Craig Nall and Rick Clausen) to a place where he can start and be a long-shot for the NFL draft.
  10. yeah.. it was a typo, then i casted that sentence 3 times...