Observations from the Game and Beyond

I like checking the Ralph Friedgen MOE each week on the Tigers. His formula's acronym is for MAJOR OFFENSIVE ERRORS which include sacks, offensive penalties, fumbles, interceptions, missed field goals, and dropped passes. According to Freidgen, if you can keep this efficiency rating under 12% then statistically he says that his teams won 95% of the time. The total number of these errors divided by the total number of offensive plays creates the efficiency rating.

This week against WVU, the LSU offensive had 0 sacks, 2 offensive penalties, 0 fumbles, 0 interceptions, 1 missed field goal, and 1 dropped pass on 69 plays for a 5.8% MOE.

Offensively

Still on track of the 2003 and 2007 offenses. Balanced, controlling time of possession, scoring with short field position, minimal unforced errors. LSU ran 69 plays to WVU's 87 plays and still won the time of possession by nearly 7 minutes. That can happen when you run the football successfully. On 15 drives, LSU scored on 7 drives and should had been an 8th with the dropped pass in the endzone. Again, no complaints from me on the offense, their scheme, and their execution. Our offensive line depth helped again when we had two guys go out and we continued to have success. Only had two offensive penalties of which were no killer holding penalties.

Defensively

It was obvious that John Chavis was committed to a certain game plan against WVU and never really deviated from it. We were committed to a loose zone rushing only 3 or sometimes 4 allowing the short passes and trying to minimize the big plays. Not that I agree with the strategy, Chavis felt like that he did not want to gamble with man coverage the whole game and risk big plays. Based on the number of missed tackles, it was probably a good strategy. Missing tackles in zone coverage and missing tackles in man coverage produce different results. WVU also had 15 drives but scored only on 3 of them. I know we expect the LSU defense to play lights out ALL the time but they did limit their scoring this way. WVU had 4 turnovers and three of the four can be labelled as LSU takeaways. Geno handed us the fourth on the mishandled snap. We couldn't really expect or front 3 or 4 to get to the quarterback with them protecting with 6 most of the time. To their credit, the WVU offense does have athletes that did make some plays. I am still concerned about Karnell Hatcher in the linebacker corp. I thought that Minter and Muncie actually had better coverage most of their plays. All in all, still a solid performance. They will work on the tackling. Eric Reid said that he was embarrassed looking at the tape and they will get it fixed. Lunging at small quick receivers usually doesn't end in tackles.

Special Teams

Well, this part of the game saw the greatest improvement. Miles and McGaughey made all the decisions that I hoped they would in practice this week. They pulled the redshirt off of Hairston and gave him the kickoffs which saw immediate improvement with 2 touchbacks and deep kicks for the most part. Tackling was good. Brad Wing came back and boomed them all night 49 yard average is like All American, All Pro type of stuff. WVU's best field position in 15 tries was the the WVU 29-yard line. He kicked to the corners which I have always preferred. And remember, he is a redshirt freshman. Punt and Kick Return teams were solid and I never figured Mo Claiborne for a 99 yard return. Gotta love that. The only nick on the special teams is the missed field goal. Alleman has not quite settled down or healed up all the way. We need him to be lights out from this point on.

Looking Ahead

October should be manageable. Home games with Kentucky, Florida, and Auburn with an away game at Tennessee. If LSU plays their game and keeps the MOE efficiency rating under that 12%, they should win all these games. Florida at home will pose the biggest threat. Again, as long as LSU plays their game, they should win these contests.

The biggest threat to this team at this time will be the possible ruling this Wednesday on Jordan Jefferson. If the grand jury lowers or drops the charges against Jefferson clearing his way to return to the team, it could become a huge distraction to this ballclub. There are a considerable number teammates that want Jefferson back. To what extent, I am not sure. He is and will not be game ready for some time. I hope the coaching staff handles this potential issue very carefully. As for my opinion, Don't mess with what's working. LSU has an identity. Let's not backslide. Jefferson has never shown me that he has corrected his bad attitude on the field much less when riding the pine. I am very concerned with him even being back with the team. He could become divisive. We will see if winning as a team is more important to the team then any one individual. For the record, Jefferson appears to have gotten a raw deal from the police and witnesses. If he can come back to the team with a good attitude and be a team player regardless of his playing time, then I have no issue with this. I am just skeptical at this point.

By the way, did you see Florida's October Schedule..... murder's row.... Alabama at home, at LSU, at Auburn, at Georgia. Guess will see what they're made of by Halloween...huh.

 

Very insightful post. I'd never heard of the Ralph Friedgen MOE before but that's a very interesting observation.

I thought the points in Looking ahead were very on point. I too have the same concerns about JJ returning. Lee is playing very good football and the offense seems to be clicking like we haven't seen it do in 3 years. The last thing I want is ANY player showing up and possibly causing a division between the players. 4 games into the season and Lee is only 1 TD short of what JJ threw for ALL of last season.

 

This, for those chomping at the bit to criticize Chavis.

 

I think you can be sure that JJ will only be used in situations. Lee will remain at starting QB.

 

Great analysis.

Can't disagree with any of it.

:geauxtige

 

The biggest change on offense has been QB play with the lack of confusion getting plays/players in a close second. Stud called much better game against WVU than he did against MSU.

 

I would still like to see a Russell Shepard option package with any combo
of Ware, Ford, Blue and others. Does not seem he will be much of a WR. Just thinking out loud.

 

excellent synopsis. I was just wondering if there was a football version of moneyball. good stuff.

 

Good insight and analysis. Thanks!