The big game is almost upon us. Here is how I think the teams stack up in this big rematch game. Quarterback Matt Mauck has developed into quite a quarterback for the Tigers, and anyone who thinks LSU is just a "talented team without a leader under center" isn't looking at the stats. They don't lie. 64.3% CP, 2,550 yards, 27 touchdowns, and only 11 interceptions for a rating of 153.9. More than the stats is the way he controls the ball and manages the offense, getting the ball into the hands of the right people, not making silly mistakes, all the leadership intangibles that you need to have in a QB. And he still has his mobility and running threat if he needs it. While it's been a good year for Georgia, it hasn't gone quite as well for David Greene as he had hoped. The completions and the yardage are there (61.1% CP, 2781 yards) but the scoring has not (only 9 TD passes to 8 INTs) and so he was never a legitimate candidate for the Heisman trophy. Nevertheless, he has had his good games, and played okay against LSU despite being rattled into throwing his first INT in over 100 pass attempts. But Mauck is the more productive and stable quarterback right now. He must be given the edge going into this game. Advantage: LSU Offensive backfield Depth is the key here. Both teams do running back by committee. When the two teams first met, both gained around 100 yards in rushing (97 for UGA, 105 for LSU) Michael Cooper led UGA in rushing that day and leads the 'Dawgs for the season, with 658 yards and six TDs and 145 carries. Kregg Lumpkin (78 rushes, 379 yards, five TDs) and Ronnie Powell (51 carries, 275 yards, 3 TDs) also carry a lot for UGA. No back averages more than 5.5 yards per carry. UGA is deep, but LSU is deeper and more talented. Had redshirt freshman Justin Vincent emerged earlier, this game would have a dominant back involved. Vincent has been the workhorse in the second half of the year for LSU, leading the team in rushing with 683 yards and 7 TDs on 120 carries, an average of 5.7 yards per. He did not see very much action in the first game against UGA. Following him up are the two more seasoned backs, Joseph Addai (104 carries, 461 yards, 2 TDs, 4.4 ypc), Shyrone Carey (78 carries, 338 yards, 6 TDs, 4.3 ypc, led all rushers in first UGA game with 18 carries for 73 yards) and true freshman Alley Broussard (72 carries, 336 yards, 4 TDs, 4.7 ypc). This four deep backfield gives LSU plenty of options to make the running game click and makes injuries less of a concern, while enabling the Tigers to salt away leads and wear down opponents late in the game. If LSU gets the running game going, it'll be a long night for the Bulldogs. Advantage: LSU Receivers Yes, Fred Gibson is "healthy" (you'd much rather have Fred Gibson at 100% than with a broken finger, but better to have him in some capacity than not at all). He has been slowed down by injuries all year, but still caught 29 balls for 512 yards and a TD. He is not what I'm worried about. I'm more worried about Browning on screens. Seriously though, Tyson Browning killed LSU in the last game with his clutch grabs, and we had better have him covered this time around. Reggie Brown was a factor too. He caught seven passes against LSU and leads the UGA team in receptions (42 grabs, 508 yards, 2 TDs). Likewise, UGA cannot simply focus on Michael Clayton, despite the fact that he is our leading receiver and go to guy (69 catches, 960 yards, 9 TDs). There is Devery Henderson (47 catches, 790 yards, 11 TDs) and Skyler Green (43 grabs, 485 yards, 5 TDs, led the LSU team in receiving and caught the game winning TD pass in the first go-round with UGA). Add in a tight end, Eric Edwards, that is actually involved in the offense, and you see that this LSU team has too many weapons to focus on just one. The UGA secondary did an admirable job the last time, but they will have to have gotten better to keep up with our improvement. I don't think they can cover three of the finest receivers in college football all at once, every play. Advantage: LSU Offensive line I said before the first LSU-UGA game that "the game within the game" would be Georgia DL David Pollock against LSU LT Andy Whitworth, and that whoever won that battle would win the game for their team. Pollock was contained, LSU won. There you go. This game is no different, but there is an expanded matchup here; which offensive line can best control the opposing defensive line? LSU has a front five that is one of the best in America. The starters for UGA will be Andy Whitworth (6'7", 325 lbs., Soph.) at LT, Rudy Niswanger (6'6", 295, Soph.) at LG, Ben Wilkerson (6'4", 303 lbs., Jr.) at center, Stephen Peterman (6'5", 325 lbs., 5th year Sr.) at RG, and Rodney Reed (6'4", 290 lbs., 5th-year Sr.) at RT. The run blocking has finally caught up to the pass protection, the size, strength, and seniority are all there, and this group is coming off possibly their most dominating performance of the season against Arkansas (no sacks, 250 yards rushing, seven tackles for loss allowed) We were facing a younger, more inexperience Georgia line back in the first game. Now that line has a full season under them, and they will be better. They have what it takes to be a good group in size and strength. But the group of LT Max Jean-Gilles (6'4", 348 lbs. Soph.), LG Russ Tanner (6'4", 290 lbs., Soph.), C Nick Jones (6'3", 272 lbs., True Fr.), RG Josh Brock (6'3" 285 lbs., Soph.) and RT Daniel Inman (6'7", 321 lbs., RS Fr.) will once again have to contend with the best D-line in the country and improved linebackers and secondary that will blitz all the time. Their task is much tougher and they aren't as equipped to deal with it. Advantage: LSU Defensive Line Speaking of the best defensive front in America, they took over the first game and will do it again in this game. Chad Lavalais is a monster in the middle and an Outland Trophy candidate who had five tackles and a sack in the first game. He has six sacks on the year, the team leader. Kyle Williams, a sophomore, starts now at RDT in place of Bryce Wyatt, but has held his own, with 37 tackles, six for loss. Marquis Hill and Marcus Spears are incredible pass rushers at the ends. Melvin Oliver and Wyatt see significant playing time spelling the starters. Georgia has a monster of their own in David Pollock, but he must play better and get pressure for UGA to stop the Tigers. He was a non-factor in the first game. Ray Gant, Robert Geathers, and Ken Veal play solid up front as well. But one superstar and three solid players does not equal one superstar and three very, very good players. Advantage: LSU Linebackers Odell Thurman and Tony Taylor bring the pain for UGA, and they are the heart of this defense. Thurman has 100 tackles and 4.5 sacks on the year. Taylor has 69 tackles. LSU's linebackers have gotten better, but remain truly "line-backers," in the game only to support the primary defensive weapon, the D-line. Lionel Turner is our hoss, with 63 tackles and a sack. Eric Alexander and Cameron Vaughn also play well, and have 100 tackles and five sacks between them. But they aren't asked to do what Georgia's linebackers are. UGA gets the nod here. Advantage: UGA Defensive backfield Corey Webster, Travis Daniels, LaRon Landry, and Jack Hunt are the perfect group for each other. All can cover, all can blitz, all can hit and get hit, and all can make big plays. But it's the leadership of the seniors and their calls and adjustments on blitzes and coverages in the game that make this secondary so lethal. Together, they have 12 interceptions, 55 pass break-ups, and five sacks. They tackles and blitz as good as the cover. Georgia also has a great secondary. Tim Jennings, Sean Jones, Thomas Davis, and Bruce Thornton play well together and make a lot of big plays too. Jones, the "Rover," played very well against LSU last time out, tallying 12 tackles (one for loss), an interception, and a batted pass. Davis was right behind him. Whichever secondary can be most active in blitz and coverage without giving up a big play may be what decides this game. Advantage: Even Special teams Billy Bennett will NOT miss three field goals again. You can write that down. But LSU has finally found some kicking consistency too, with Chris Jackson going 5 for 7 with a 47 yarder as his longest. Punter Donnie Jones is great, no surprise there, but so is Georgia punter Gordon Ely-Kelso. Not as great though, he's really not. Where LSU shines is the return game, with Skyler Green on punts (21.2 return yard average, two run back for TDs this year) and Devery Henderson on kickoffs (22 return yard average). Georgia cannot match that. But their kicking game gives them a steady hand. Usually. Advantage: Even Coaching staff Two outstanding head coaches in Mark Richt of Georgia and Nick Saban of LSU, who have accomplished amazing feats in returning their respective programs to a level of dominance neither had been at in 20+ years. Two amazing staffs from top to bottom. And both will come in well prepared, so this is too close to call. Advantage: Even Intangibles Is the Georgia Dome an unfair home advantage for UGA? Is LSU overly distracted by the BCS controversy? Is LSU in Billy Bennett's head? Did UGA really "outplay" LSU in game one only to lose to the improbable scenario of missing three field goals? Were injuries a deciding factor, and will they be this time? Yes. No. Maybe. No. No. The Georgia Dome crowd will be difficult for LSU to overcome, but not impossible, if they are focused. Get ready for it though. Advantage: Even The game: LSU will come in focused and ready to tear Georgia apart to show the world they deserve a national title shot. Georgia will be hankering to prove that that 17-10 loss in Baton Rouge was a fluke and that they are the class of the SEC. The Georgia Dome will be hostile for the Tigers, but not near as hostile as a much improved LSU team. Georgia has not improved enough to keep up, and it will show as the game wears on. Look for LSU to be in a dogfight at halftime, but to win going away and look good for the pollsters and the fans going into final BCS calculations. LSU 31, Georgia 13
Great analysis Jetstorm. Most outside observers would give UGA the advantage at QB only because Greene came into the season with more of a reputation than Mauck but Mauck has exceeded all expectations and has grown from game to game into at the worst the #2 QB in the SEC behind Eli Manning. Eli and Greene will be drafted higher than Mauck but Mauck just might be the best when the game is on the line. He has certainly come through in the clutch situations beginning with the game winning TD pass to Skyler Green in the first game with UGA when Green ran the wrong route and Mauck picked it up that he was open. I have to disagree with your rating of coaching as even. Not knocking Mark Richt. He is a great young coach but he had a lot more to work with when he took the Georgia job than Saban did when he took the LSU job. The level that Nick Saban has taken the LSU program to in 4 years borders on genius, considering the depths that LSU football had fallen to under Joe Dean's cheapo coaching hires or Mike Archer, Curley Hallman and Jerry DiNardo. When LSU would lose a game under Hallman or DiNardo they would talk about how LSU needed to get bigger, stronger and faster. Now if the Tigers lose a game the reason is not that the other team was bigger, faster and more physical. LSU now has the ability to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The team speed at running back, wide receiver and D backs is as good or better than anybody including Oklahoma. While most of the seniors on this years team were recuited by DiNardo Saban has separated the wheat from the chaff and is a master of having the right players in the game for any situation. There has been speculation that Georgia might try to use the no huddle offense to disrupt LSU's defensive substitution patterns. I feel pretty confident that Saban is aware of that and has included preparation for that probability into his game plan and that the Dawgs will be forced to abandon that tactic pretty quickly. You rated the intangibles as even. That may or may not turn out to be accurate. A very good Georgia team that is a lot better than the team LSU beat in October wants to prove that their loss was a fluke. The LSU team that was only a very good Top Ten worthy team in October has evolved from week to week into underated greatness. The media talking heads have been saying all week that the best team didn't win in October and hyping the statistical advantage Georgia had in that game. I don't think the Tiger players are immune from hearing that lack of respect and will bring an attitude to the Georgia Dome that the Dawgs are not prepared for. The entire season has come down to one game. This is the biggest game for LSU in at least 30 years. Georgia is rated at #5 but I consider them to be the third best team in college football. The Tigers may or may not be the best team in college football but if they are going to have any chance at all of proving they are better than Oklahoma on the field they will have to first bring their Triple AAA Game to Atlanta. Its 5:30 AM now. I don't know what time the team gets up and has breakfast and then team meetings and gameday preparations but if they are as pumped up and ready as I am they are going to be eating Dawgmeat for a Saturday night snack.
Thanks Jetstorm. That's the kind of analysis you get when the writer knows the teams. The other garbage we hear on the national scene comes from "experts" who don't have sufficient info to back up their opinions. If you had picked Georgia, though, you'd be an idiot.
LOL, he's not an idiot ... and the analysis is good. INTANGIBLES even .... GA is in the TOP 10 in Penalties, with 106 for almost 1,000 yards ... GEORGIA GETS THE HUGE FRIGGIN PENALTIES Personal Fouls ... Interference calls, and lots of them That freshman Center is undersized and MAKING HIS FIRST START LSU Rolls
