Because I'm from North Louisiana, and I have so many personal connections to Tech, I am taking it pretty seriously. That's why I've done an analysis. Well folks, it’s time to get down to the game at hand. Here’s my perspective on how the teams match up. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (4-4) vs. Louisiana State Tigers (7-1) OFFENSE passing: LSU #39 -- Tech #7 rushing: LSU #57 -- Tech #73 scoring: LSU #20 -- Tech #43 pass efficiency: LSU #20 -- Tech #48 Total O: LSU #41 -- Tech #15 DEFENSE passing: LSU #38 -- Tech #117 (dead last in Division 1-A) rushing: LSU #2 -- Tech #95 scoring: LSU #1 -- Tech #88 pass efficiency: LSU #15 Tech #81 Total D: LSU #4 -- Tech #114 SPECIAL Net punting: LSU #10 -- Tech #44 punt returns: LSU #5 -- Tech #53 KO returns: LSU #6 -- Tech #76 On offense: Quarterbacks Luke McCown is at the end of a prolific career as one of the NCAA’s premier gunslinger passing quarterbacks. While it’s been up and down for him, this season has been much better than last. He is the engine that drives the Tech offense. He plays awesome, Tech wins. He plays horribly, Tech loses. It’s that simple. On the year, he has a 59.2% CP for 2489 yards, 14 TDs, and 8 INTs. Like McCown, Matt Mauck is the leader and the heart of the LSU offense. Unlike McCown, Mauck does not have to play an outstanding game for LSU to win. He just has to distribute the ball well, run the offense well, and avoid mistakes. All he has to do is play within himself and let the talent around him take over. His stats for 2003 are 62.9% CP, 1,613 yards, 15 TDs, and 7 INTs. Mauck is a solid component in the Tiger offense, but he is not the passer McCown is. And McCown, when hot, can change a game for his side. Advantage: La. Tech Offensive backfield Ryan Moats has come on strong lately for Tech, and his breakout performance in the Hawaii game is just a taste of what’s to come for this young man, in my humble opinion. Already at 819 yards after being called on to replace Ralph Davis early in the year, he averages an impressive 6.8 yards per carry, has scored 8 rushing TDs, and adds an essential second dimension to the Tech offense, in addition to the ability to keep opposing offenses off the field, rest the defense, and salt away late leads. Rushing for almost 500 yards in two weeks makes him a concern for the LSU defense. But, I think the Tigers get the edge here because of depth. Joseph Addai, who started for LSU in the first few games of the season, likely will not play, and Shyrone Carey will play sparingly unless the game is on the line. That leaves the running game to our young, yet very talented freshmen trio of Justin Vincent, Ally Broussard, and Barrington Edwards. Vincent, who has a redshirt, is the hot back right now after rushing for a new career high 127 yards against Auburn. On the year, he has 336 yards and four TDs, and averages 5.6 yards per carry. Broussard carried the load the week before against South Carolina, rushing for 108 yards on 19 carries, and, although he only rushed for 31 yards on 13 carries against Auburn, he did score a TD, giving him 2 on the season. He now has 147 yards on the year, averaging 3.4 yards per carry. Edwards has played sparingly thus far this season, but could be getting the ball a lot tonight. He has 21 carries for 89 yards on the season, and average of 4.2 per carry. The lead blocking of fullback Kevin Steltz, a former walk-on, is vital to LSU’s success on the ground. David Jones also sees action at the fullback spot as well as tight end, and is more of an offensive threat, while Steltz is a pure blocker. Even with two running backs nursing injuries, LSU has a three back rotation that they will try to use in a similar way that they tried against Auburn. The strategy worked last week, they will push it again this week against a Tech defense that has not showed an ability to withstand the run this season. Advantage: LSU Receivers Chris Norwood, Shawn Piper, Trammisian Davis, D.J. Curry, and Erick Franklin make up the receiving corps for Tech. Four seniors and a junior. Very talented, very experienced, very knowledgeable about the offense and the routes they must run. While there is no Troy Edwards, super-talented, “go-to” man in the group, the five together make up a great receiving corps that I would love to have on my team. Curry leads this year with 43 catches for 509 yards and six TDs. Norwood has 36 grabs for 453 yards and 2 TD’s. Piper had an explosive game in the upset of Michigan State, catching 10 balls for 171 yards and a big 76 yard touchdown catch. And these are not “SSS” receivers, the smart, sure-handed, yet SLOW guys that dominate in a possession-pass, “dink-and-screen” offense. These guys have BURNED some people this year. Every one of the five has at least one long catch that went for over 35 yards. Some people may mistakenly believe they don’t match up well with LSU’s secondary, but I believe LSU’s pass defense will be tested this week. Aaron Capps, the tight end, doesn’t get the ball often (only seven catches), but when he does, he is effective as an offensive weapon (averages 13.4 yards per catch). LSU also has a talented receiving corps, and that spells trouble for the 117th ranked pass defense in Division 1-A. Junior Michael Clayton gets all the press, and he does indeed lead the team with 41 catches for 620 yards and 5 TDs. But do not overlook junior Devery Henderson or sophomore Skylor Green. Henderson is right behind Clayton with 36 catches for 530 yards and 7 TDs. Green, who was Mr. Clutch in the Tigers big win over Georgia, has 24 grabs for 293 yards and 3 TDs. Tight end Eric Edwards, in addition to being a superb blocker, gets the ball occasionally, with 12 catches for 122 yards and a TD this year. All Tiger receivers are big, tall, and physical downfield blockers as well, which helps the running game. Focus to much on one guy, another will step up and hurt you. Of course, the same could be said for Tech’s receiving corps, which is also deeper than LSU’s. LSU has more outstanding individual talents though. It all evens out to me. Advantage: Even Offensive line No contest here. While Tech must be given credit for having a pretty decent sized o-line (average 298 pounds per man), they are a bit young (two sophomores) and haven’t always done the best job at pass protection. In the Tech games I have watched this year (Miami, Michigan State, Fresno State, Hawaii) McCown has faced heavy pressure in every game except Hawaii. The run blocking has obviously improved tremendously in the last three weeks, and Tech has been more two-dimensional. Michael Gilmore, Aaron Lips, Marcus Stewart, Adrian Gonzalez, and Jordan Lang will have to bring their A-game tonight against one of the best defensive fronts in the country if Tech is to have a chance to win, though. Of the five, Lips impresses me the most, but Lang is also solid at right tackle. The LSU front five of Andy Whitworth, Stephen Peterman, Ben Wilkerson, Terrell McGill, and Rodney Reed is a solid unit, one of the best in the nation, in my opinion. Two fifth year seniors (Reed and Peterman) are the leaders and the experienced veterans. Whitworth has played very well at left tackle this year, and is becoming a real “shut down” blocker. The run blocking has been disappointing at times, but they gave the best effort I have seen all year against Auburn, and we were successful. They are capable of pushing around any defense in the country, it’s just a question of following through. The pass blocking has really never been an issue. I don’t see the Tech front seven putting up much of a fight against this unit. Advantage: LSU Defense Defensive line Again, a mismatch. LSU’s front line of Marcus Spears, Chad Lavalais, Bryce Wyatt, and Marquis Hill, with experienced backups Melvin Oliver and Kyle Williams to spell them, is one of the best D-lines in the country. Lavalais in particular is having an outstanding year, with six sacks and 11 tackles for loss. Kyle Williams is #2 with four sacks, and he comes off the bench. This unit is big, strong, yet very quick as well. They are the anchor of the Tiger defense. The Bulldogs defensive front is better than in year’s past, but still has trouble stopping the run. Lack of size is not the issue it once was (Tech’s front four averages 281 pounds per man, although they will still be giving up 22 pounds per man to the LSU front five) so I am not sure why they are still 95th in the country in rush defense. But I have seen in games the defensive linemen get rather easily blocked. They peaked in the Michigan State and Fresno State games, but are now back to traditional Tech form, which is not good. Cage is the most active lineman, with 3 sacks and 10 tackles for losses. I see Tech’s defensive front having a much harder time in this game than LSU’s. Advantage: LSU Linebackers Once LSU’s strength, this year it is their soft spot. That’s what happens when you have to replace an All-American at middle linebacker. Nevertheless, the threesome of Eric Alexander (senior), Lionel Turner (junior) and Cameron Vaughn (junior) have played very well and have not been asked to do something they are not ready to do. Jason LeDoux is a solid backup who plays more against run oriented teams than passing teams like Tech. I would expect to see a lot of nickel and dime defensive packages from LSU, so only Turner and Alexander will play extensively in this game. Turner leads the team with 47 tackles. LSU loves to blitz, so the linebackers will attack on occasion. Alexander is the better blitzing linebacker, with two sacks and six tackles for losses. The Bulldogs also run a base 4-3 defense, with junior John Nash (who I am familiar with from his days at Mangham) leading the defense at middle, senior Antonio Crow (who I am familiar with from his days at Cotton Valley) playing the strong side, and sophomore Jeremy Hamilton, a Ruston man, playing weak side. This group is more geared toward quickness than size and strength, and that’s because of the way offense is in the WAC, more pass coverage, less need for a brutal run-stopper. Crow leads the team with 66 tackles. He is all over the field. Since LSU probably will want to run the football aggressively in this game, this unit is going to have to toughen up and support the d-line considerably. They must be up to that challenge for Tech to win. This is a good group of backers, and if LSU runs all over Tech, it won’t be their fault. Advantage: Even Defensive backfield Louisiana Tech is #117 against the pass. That’s right, DEAD LAST in Division 1-A. That is not good when going up against a receiving corps like LSU. I am reminded of the Hawaii game, where Tech cornerback Eric Newman (must have been in the game as part of a dime package) was excessively picked on by Timmy Chang and Tech never adjusted to help Newman out. They continued to leave cornerbacks on islands and they continued to get burned. Hawaii played pitch and catch all day long without a whimper of protest from the Tech secondary. The foursome starters Kevin Brown, Jerron Wishom, Lee Johnson, and Michael Johnson, three seniors and a junior, are going to have to do much better to cover Clayton, Henderson, and Green. They are at least getting more interceptions than in years past, with 11 picks so far this season. LSU’s defensive backfield, meanwhile, hopes to be up to the challenge of containing McCown and his gang of five. I look for a lot of nickel and dime defensive packages in the game, but some of these defensive backs will blitz on occasion. Cornerbacks Corey Webster and Ronnie Prude, strong safety Travis Daniels, and free safety Jack Hunt (Ruston native who will probably be psyched for this game) are a solid group and they do not give up very many big plays. They are also solid in run support. Webster has 3 picks, and Hunt and Daniels have two apiece, both of whom have returned one for a TD. Hunt leads the secondary with 44 tackles and is second to Webster with five pass breakups (Webster has seven). They will be challenged by a good Tech receiving corps. I think they are up for it. Advantage: LSU Special teams Heaven help LSU if this game comes down to a field goal. The Tigers Ryan Gaudet, a redshirt freshman, is 5 of 9 this season, with a long of 47 yards. Two misses have been blocked. Contrast that to the sure foot of senior Josh Scobee, who this season is 17 of 25 with a long of 53. Again, two misses were blocked. Scobee has been a little off lately, but at least he has good form down and will probably be able to break out of his slump for such a big game. Punting is about even. Both Dustin Upton and Donnie Jones are long time punters for their respective teams and are very good at what they do. The return game favors LSU. Tech has not had a kick or punt return for a touchdown all year, and the averages on returns, with the exception of Eric Newman’s 29.5 yard kickoff average, have not been impressive. Tech has given up a punt return for a TD this year on coverage, which obviously peaks the interest of our return specialist Skylor Green, who has taken two back for TDs this year and has an average of 26.1 yards per return. Devery Henderson averages 25.8 yards on kickoff returns. This helps LSU out tremendously on field position. But Tech has a more reliable source of points if they can’t crack the end zone. I’ll go with a solid field goal kicker any day. Advantage: La. Tech Coaching staff Coach Nick Saban is in his fourth year at LSU, with a record of 33-13, one SEC championship, one outright division championship, one division co-championship, and a 2-1 record in bowl games. Saban has taken the program in a radically different direction than his predecessor Gerry DiNardo, making the rebuilding job more complete and yielding better results and consistency. LSU is back to being a consistent Top 15 program, and Saban is a huge reason for that. His emphasis is on solid game planning, discipline, good order, routine, and consistency in work. His attention to these things and other details many coaches would consider insignificant sets him apart. His staff is excellent as well. Jimbo Fischer is a pretty good offensive coordinator, despite his tendency to call an overly conservative gameplan at times. I think he learned from the Florida experience. Will Muschamp is a great defensive coordinator, and he is a big reason why our defense is as highly ranked as it is. Louisiana Tech has a coaching problem, in my humble opinion. Jack Bicknell III is in his fifth year as the Bulldogs head man, with a record of 26-29 and one WAC championship. This year’s Bulldog team has more than enough talent to be in first place in the WAC race. Instead, with close losses to Fresno St., Boise St., and Hawaii, two of which I watched on TV, they are out of it. The only reason I can think of for this is a deficiency of leadership and poor game-planning and game management. What am I to think of a coach who says halftime adjustments are overrated? Tech offensive coordinator Conroy Hines is, like LSU’s Fischer, overly conservative in his play calling, even worse to a degree. I have noticed at times a reluctance to throw long passes despite the fact that Tech has had success with the vertical passing game in years past and even this year in the rare moments when they have done it. “Dink and screen” will not work against a team with great lateral speed, such as LSU, so I hope he’s willing to show some guts today, otherwise, the game won’t be very exciting, or competitive. La. Tech defensive coordinator Rick Smith has some problems as well. Tech’s losses have a lot to do with a porous defense that is #114 overall in D1-A. They don’t have to be an iron curtain, just stop opposing offenses occasionally to give the offense some breathing room. They played well against Michigan St. and Fresno St., but have played poorly since. I have no explanation, other than I think LSU has better coaches. Advantage: LSU The Intangibles Louisiana Tech has wanted this game for a long time, because in the late 80s and early 90s, while LSU languished in the Hallman/DiNardo doldrums, the Bulldogs were becoming one of D1-As upstart programs. I can’t say for sure what the record would be had Louisiana Tech and LSU played each other every year for the last fifteen years, but I have no doubt they would have beaten LSU at least twice, maybe more. Well, Skip Bertman, acknowledged as a good fellow even by those who despise LSU, saw fit to schedule in-state teams (and I don’t care what some of my fellow Tiger fans with lesser intelligence think they know, playing in-state teams IS A GOOD THING, for LSU, for the other schools, and for Louisiana), and now the game is on. Unfortunately for Tech, they have hit the skids of late, and this is the best LSU team of the last quarter-century. Nevertheless, Tech will be sky-high for this game, wanting to beat LSU and prove a variety of points (that they are for real, that they are worthy of respect, that they are better than ULL and ULM, that LSU is not as high and mighty as they are prone to believing, etc., etc.) Motivation is not a factor for Tech. Is it a factor for LSU? I don’t think so. LSU fans have heard the banter of Tech fans over the last fifteen years. Some are amused. Some are annoyed. And deep down, some feel threatened. Whichever it is, they want to see dominance re-asserted tonight and see Tech “put back in their place.” Tech isn’t really going to get the best shot to beat LSU this year. Nonetheless, they have the talent to make it happen. Will home field advantage play a part? I think so. Tech is no stranger to large crowds and hostile stadiums. Tiger Stadium has a reputation, however, as being one of the toughest places to play in college football. Tech may not be intimidated at first, but we shall see if crowd noise has an impact on them as the game goes on. Like I said, I expect the LSU crowd to be up for this game. It will be a sellout, looks like. While it will not be an Auburn type atmosphere, it definitely will mean more than a Western Illinois type game. It is also LSU’s Homecoming. We can’t lose Homecoming now, can we? As for the Tigers themselves, they got their one letdown for the year out of their system against Florida. It likely won’t happen again. And you can’t tell me the North Louisiana players don’t feel this game is important. If Tech is hoping to catch LSU napping, it won’t happen. Both teams and both fan basers are sufficiently motivated. I’ll have to give LSU the edge because of home field. Advantage: LSU My prediction: Louisiana Tech will have the same success against our defense that most others have had. Unfortunately, their defense will not slow us down one little bit. Too much of our running backs, and too much Michael Clayton. I look for Tech to be with us at halftime, about 24-14. Then, LSU’s depth and superior coaching will take over, and Tech will not adjust to us as well as we adjust to them. My Tigers will take this one by blowing it open in the 3rd quarter. LSU 52, Louisiana Tech 21 GEAUX TIGERS!!!!!!!! :lsug:
Looks like a good analysis, but I don't think Tech puts up 21. I would've read the entire thing, if it weren't for this damn ADD
Good stuff Jetstorm, but the receiving is no where near even...Two top 20 receivers, another top track star, 3 top national freshmen who could all whoop tech's receiving core in my opinion...but otherwise, great writeup...
