LSU comes in 6-1, 3-1 in conference play. The Fightin' Tigers have done well so far this year, with the exception of a horrid offensive performance against Florida. They have the home field advantage and are four-point favorites, despite the fact that many talking heads are picking Auburn to win. LSU likes a conservative strategy to win; play soft and don't push on offense, take what you are given, win the field position battle, put it on the defense to win the game. The strategy worked against Georgia and South Carolina, but backfired against Florida. But our offensive unit showed enough improvement against the Gamecocks to convince me we will be fine. Auburn comes in on a roll. After an 0-2 start, during which nearly everyone in the country left them for dead, the Tigers have reeled off five straight victories and stand at 4-0 in SEC play. The Tigers rely on a solid, four-pronged ground assault to wear down their opponents and chew up clock and yards. They too, have a bone-crushing defense that they rely on to keep them in games until the relentless pounding of their running backs begins to take it's toll on the opposing defense. Also, like LSU, when their offensive performance is subpar, their master strategy doesn't work (see their early season losses to USC and Georgia Tech). Both teams have learned the hard way that defense alone can't do it; if you don't score, you can't win. This game will be an absolute war. Both teams are very evenly matched, with very similar styles and master strategies to winning games. We might throw the ball a little more than they do, but we're still quite conservative on offense, and we'll definitely run the ball hard if we have success with it. Whoever can establish the more dominant running game, whoever can disrupt the opponent's offense more, and whoever makes the least mistakes, will be victorious. My analysis: Quarterback: Sorry War Eagles, no contest here. Matt Mauck is the true leader, the heart and soul of the LSU team. He's not flashy or overly athletic, but he gets the job done. While the foot injury from last season has taken away some mobility, he is still a threat to hurt you with his legs as much as his arms. His decision making has vastly improved, making him a more complete QB. His stats: 63.2%, 1389 yards, 12 TDs, 6 INTs. 11-2 as a starter. I am STILL not sold on Jason Campbell. He has not done anything to really impress me. I have yet to see him do something to lift his team up and be the difference between winning and losing, like Mauck has done on at least some occassions for LSU. When USC and GT shut down Auburn's running game, he was completely unable to cope. If LSU shuts down the potent Auburn rushing attack, all bets are off. Campbell's stats: 61.4%, 1127 yards, 5 TDs, 3 INTs. In Campbell's defense, the one time I have seen him give a solid performance (but not a difference-in-the-ballgame performance) in a must-win game, was last year's 31-7 beatdown of LSU on the Plains. But I'm betting lightning won't strike twice. Advantage: LSU Off. backfield: Again, no contest here. Sorry my fellow Louisianians, it's Auburn. Carnell Williams is the complete package at tailback. He is tough, he is strong, he is physical, he almost never goes down at first contact, and he has the instaneous burst to hit the hole quick and the second gear to push it into the secondary for a big gain. And he isn't the only weapon they've got. Brandon Jacobs is an awesome change of pace back with which to spell Williams, so that the Cadillac is fresh for the 4th quarter wear-down. Ronnie Brown is also a factor, and Tuberville does not play favorites with his backfield. The back who is playing with momentum will get the carries. If one isn't getting the job done, he will sit and another takes his place. IMHO, the reason Auburn is running well now as opposed to the start of the season is the fullback position. Auburn quickly realized a fundamental truth; you cannot power run out of single back sets. Enter Brandon Johnson, the fullback. Of course, if they wanted to, Brown or Jacobs could block well enough and get an occassional carry out of the fullback position. The weapons are unreal. Williams is third in conference rushing with 713 yards and tied for conference lead with 10 TDs. LSU is younger at the running back position, but that may not be a bad thing. Shyrone Carey, our speed back, is expected to return this week. He is small but very quick. If he is anywhere close to 100%, he will help us out tremendously. With Joseph Addai out, power running will go to whichever of the young guns can get it done, either Vincent, Broussard, or Edwards. My favorite is Broussard, and he had an awesome game against South Carolina last week. But can he hold on to the football? In a game like this, he has to. If he can't, we will be forced to put a lesser talent on the field just to protect the ball. That would be an unfortunate situation for us. Advantage: Auburn Off. line: Both strong, physical lines, led by outstanding senior leadership. Our strength is our tackles, Andy Whitworth made a name for himself by shutting down David Pollock in the Georgia game. Rodney Reed is a seasoned 5th year senior, and Ben Wilkerson, a junior, is in his third year as a starter. Our soft spot, if there is one, are our guards. Questions have been raised about our straight-ahead blocking. This game is an oppurtunity for Stephen Peterman and Nate Livings to put those questions to rest. They have played well before, I know they have it in them. But I want to see our offensive line completely dominate in a big game, like I know they are capable of doing. Pass blocking is not a concern, I know we're good at that. Auburn will test us, though. Auburn has a great line as well. Mark Pera, the big senior left tackle, has impressed me. Crittendon, the massive right guard, is the other senior. They run block as well as anyone in the country, and when they are having a good game, that means trouble. But, if we can at least slow down their running game, are they capable of picking up the multiple blitzes that Saban/Muschamp will throw at them? That will be an interesting battle to watch, as well as individual matchups between Crittendon/Lavalais and Pera/Spears. The game within the game right there. Advantage: Even Receivers: Again, no contest here. Auburn doesn't use their receivers very much. Ben Obumanu makes a play every now and then, but if the receivers are being asked to make plays, you know that Auburn's O is out of sorts. McIntyre is largely unproven. Their tight ends do well blocking, but don't catch a lot of passes. Ours used to be the same way, but Eric Edwards has really come into his own this year. He caught three passes against Georgia and a TD pass against Carolina. If we can utilize him in the offense, it gives us a whole other dimension. As for receivers, come on! Michael Clayton, Devery Henderson, Skylor Green, need I say more? And if Auburn thinks, "Well, we will just shut down Clayton and everything will be fine," WRONG! Clayton hasn't made too many big plays this year, but Green and Henderson have sure played that to their advantage, catching a lot of balls. Focus on one too much, the other two will burn you. Auburn's strength is run defense. We'll see if their pass D is up to the challenge. What I want to know is, will Fischer take the gloves off and go deep, or will we play-call like we did against Florida? That's the question. Advantage: LSU Def. line: LSU's d-line of Marquis Hill, Chad Lavalais, Bryce Wyatt, and Marcus Spears is one of the top five fronts in the country. They can control the line of scrimmage very well, and with just a little linebacker help, can make it very difficult for an opposing QB to breathe. I am impressed by DeMarco McNeil and Reggie Torbor. But they just don't seem to have the presence that our defensive line has. Advantage: LSU LBs: Auburn's presence comes here. Dansby is a tough hand. So are Williams and Thomas, but Dansby is the big guy. He will cause us trouble. Lionel Turner and Eric Alexander are solid for us, but they just need time to become a solid unit the way James, Lawrence, and Faulk were for so long. I hope Jason LeDoux follows up his solid performance last week with another one. Because Auburn is more a running team, I would expect him to play more. Advantage: Auburn Secondary: Very even here talent wise, but our experience gives us an edge. Jack Hunt and Corey Webster are awesome for us as leaders on the defense, Travis Daniels has been better than I could have hoped for, and Ronnie Prude, while young, is holding his own at the corner position. The key this week for our guys is are they tough enough to come up in run support and tackle those big Auburn backs. I hope they lifted a ton in the offseason, because this is where it will be needed. Auburn's secondary will do what they are supposed to do, try to cover our receivers. There are no seniors in the group, but Rosegreen and Rogers are juniors who anchor the right side. I don't think Auburn will use man coverage on us, they will instead probably try to use zone. If we burn them early, they will commit more to zone, which may open up the running game. Let's hope we can attack and they can't handle it. Advantage: LSU Special teams: Auburn has much better kicking. Heaven help us if it comes down to a field goal. Our kick return abilities are about even. I'm hoping Skylor Green can be a weapon and that his punt return for TD was not a fluke. Both teams have the potential to take a kick deep. I think we have a better punter, which might help us win the field position battle. But they can score points if they have to. I'm not sure we can do that. Advantage: Auburn Coaching: No question that Nick Saban is one of the best coaches in football. But here's the question. This is a big game. A division title may be on the line, who knows, maybe a chance at the national title. I have noticed at times in the past, our coaching staff can be overly conservative in games such as this. Florida this year, Arkansas and Ole Miss last year, Ole Miss in 2001. No such doubts exist with Tuberville. He is, after all, the Riverboat Gambler. He may be crazy enough to do something crazy. Is our coaching staff capable of something like that? They may have to, in a tight game such as this. But maybe I'm just freaking out over nothing. Who knows, maybe Tubby will gamble recklessly, shoot himself in the foot, and lose the game. Maybe slow and steady really does win the race. And if it happens that way, I'll be quiet. Advantage: Even Intangibles: Death Valley on a Saturday night. Nationally televised game. A probable record crowd for an explosive rivalry. Usually this favors us. But will Auburn be intimidated. I don't think so, not after what happened last year. But we will be revenge-minded. A whole lot of emotion is gonna come out tomorrow night. It will be competitive, but I think our home-field advantage, combined with a burning desire to get back to the SEC Championship, stay in the national title hunt, and avenge our defeat of last year, will be the difference. We want this game a heck of a lot more than Auburn does. I think it will show on the field. Advantage: LSU Final analysis: Like I said, a war. Look for a busted play, a big special teams play, or a turnover to be the difference in the ball game between these two evenly matched teams. I think we prevail though. We are a bit more two-dimensional than Auburn on offense and a bit more powerful against the run on defense. My prediction: LSU 14, Auburn 7 Everybody have fun tomorrow night! AND BE NICE TO ONE ANOTHER! IT'S JUST A GAME!
Another point is if you flip it around and compare LSU's O Line to Auburn's D Line and LSU's D Line to Auburn's O Line I think the advantage goes to LSU both ways. After all our O Line is not going heads up with their O Line. Same with the D Lines. As far as the special teams LSU is better in the punting department as well as kick coverage and kick returns. I just hope it doesn't come down to Gaudet having to make a field goal to win.
I'll buy that anaylsis with one exception. I think our special teams are superior. They may have a better kicker, but our punter is far superior to theirs. More importantly our kick and punt return teams are better, as are our coverage teams. NCAA team rankings: net punting: LSU #14 Auburn #32 punt returns: LSU #8 Auburn #51 kickoff returns: LSU #7 Auburn #83 SabanFan, Livings is out and McGill is slowed with an ankle sprain. Niswanger may start. He has size and talent. But chemistry among the offensive linemen is essential. Niswanger probably hasn't played enough to have it. He will make some mistakes, but probably give a good accounting of himself.
Great analysis, one of the best I've read here. You really nailed Auburn's problem in the losses to SC and GT.....that is, that you can't effectively run a power strategy out of a 1-back set. However, the FB to be wary of is not Slaughter, but B. Johnson, a Louisiana homeboy (also known by far as the toughest character on the team). A couple of points that I mildly disagree with. IMHO, the edge for the defensive front should probably lean slightly to AU, as I believe the first strings are very close talent-wise, but the quality runs deeper in terms of total depth for the AU defense. Also, with regard to Special Teams, I'm not certain I would give the advantage to AU. Vaughn has been benched for inconsistency and the more experienced Yost will be tasked with FG's. Bliss, the pure frosh punter, has only the UT game to draw upon for huge, night game experience (and that was @ AU). Bliss has performed well though. Sky Green scares the bejeezus out of the coaching staff - they all understand that he is a serious threat that can change the outcome of the game. They believe he can be neutralized as a receiver, but not as a return man. Even or slight edge to LSU.
Now dangit, one of your guys just told me your starting fullback was #45, Brandon Johnson. And I still put Slaughter's name up there. Well, it should be Johnson. I will edit now. Also, Johnson is from Bayou La Batre, Alabama. He's not from Louisiana. But from a place like that, he might have some Cajun in him.
You are correct ....he is indeed from Bayou La Batre......ya' gotta' agree it sounds more like a Louisiana town than an Alabama town *grin* He's a real character. Played "both ways" last season as a fullback on offense and a linebacker on D. Raised tough, the son of an oysterman, a blue-collar kind of individual. Well-respected by the other players because of his "take no prisoners & shoot the wounded" attitude and toughness.
Now, now, shooting the wounded is a violation of the Geneva Convention. Not exactly sporting of him. Unfortunately for everyone, neither Auburn nor LSU or signatories to the Geneva Convention. So tomorrow night it should get quite medieval. LET THE BLOODBATH BEGIN!!!!!!