I know the common thought is to cheer for Bowling Green because that wold assure Georgia finishes top 10 in the BCS. But, the more I think about it, might LSU be better off if Miami wins this game? I really can't see Georgia falling behind Miami in the BCS, even with a sizable loss... the human polls will still have them ahead, and the computer polls won't punish Georgia much at all from losing to the number 2 team. On the other hand, Miami is right behind USC in two computer polls, and Bowling Green is a much better opponent than Oregon State. There's a decent chance Miami could pass them in one, if not both. I'm starting to think it might be to LSU's benefit if Miami wins this game... I'm not convinced there's much of a chance Georgia falls to 11. Anyone with a different opinion or thoughts?
Well here goes my best shot at explaining this. On the one hand, a Bowling Green win affects 2 big issues. First, Georgia being assured of being 10th in the BCS. Miami OH wins and it may be too close for comfort. Imagine this, LSU wins big over Georgia and the AP and Coaches decide to spank Georgia with a 12 or 13 spot. Especially if Georgia falls behind Miami OH in either of the 2 media polls, it could mean Miami OH in 10th place in the BCS instead. And do you really want to root against LSU blasting Georgia? I think not. I know it's not likely, but hell I want LSU to win 31-3.....and I don't want to have to worry about it while they are doing just that. Secondly, a Bowling Green victory ensures us that going into Saturday's games, we only need either Syracuse OR Boise State to win. What a relief that would be. On the other hand, Miami OH winning does give them a chance to finish 3rd ahead of USC, but I think they will fall short in both polls. How disappointing would that be to find out the Miami OH win was for naught. Put it this way, I think Georgia stands a better chance at finishing 11th behind Miami OH than Miami OH to picking up a 3 spot in either of those polls. If USC were idle this week, I would have a better feeling about these polls going Miami OH's way. In addition, a Miami OH win means Syracuse must win! I hate that more than anything. I have watched the Washington State/Washington (big loss for USC) and the Alabama/Hawaii (big loss for LSU) games. Believe me, it's no fun having to root for tragically horrible teams such as these (i.e., Washington and Alabama). I don't want to have to root for a horrible Syracuse team that seems to have given up in the season already. I mean we still want them to win, but to have to totallt rely on them for your salvation. That's brutal.
I suppose it's possible... but I still think that the coaches/media wouldn't punish Georgia that harshly for having two losses to the second best team in the nation. I suppose it would give LSU peace of mind, though. by the way, do you mind if I post your message in the other thread on another board (link included)? A lot of people seem to doubt that LSU has any chance of passing USC, and you explained things much better in that post than I ever could.
your "LSU vs. USC... The Definitive Answer" one. That cleared up a lot of questions I had, especially regarding the computer polls. I didn't realize that a Syracuse win puts LSU as a lock for number 2 in the Colley... I was worried about that one. I'm still somewhat concerned about the Wolfe because I don't understand that one at all. Two weeks ago, Texas dropped from 3 to 9 in that poll on a bye week, and many of the teams that passed them played poor opponents. And after Texas played a similarly mediocre opponent last week, they only rose from 9 to 8. I've given up trying to understand what that poll measures.
Yes I went on Colley's website and you can actually project up to 5 future games and see what the outcome of that poll is. LSU is guaranteed #2 if Syracuse wins, but tragically they are guaranteed #3 behind USC if Syracuse loses in the Colley poll. And it is so painfully close that LSU can just taste #2 in that damn poll. That's the only disappointing thing. I was really hoping that we could have gotten the Miami OH, Notre Dame, Boise State winning combo to give us the #2 spot in the BCS. Those are the projected winners albeit the Syracuse game is a close spread. By the way, I already updated the original post on that thread with all the possibilities and I get into what the Miami OH game means.
one final question on this game... I just noticed that the projected SOS with a Bowling Green win (along with Syracuse and Boise State) is 1.20, but with a Miami win (and the others the same) it's 1.24. What's the link to Bowling Green? I know it's been said, but I can't put my finger on it...
Colorado State is projected 1 spot ahead of LSU in the SOS. But this is with assuming a Miami OH win (Colorado State played Miami OH this year). So if Bowling Green wins, Colorado State takes a hit on their SOS and LSU passes them in the final SOS projections. Pretty crazy huh?
I've no idea if this alone would be enough to keep USC at #4 in Massey behind Ohio State BUT another reason to go for Bowling Green is a BG victory gives a nice bump to Ohio State's opponents strength of schedule. Bowling Green faced OSU this season and a win over Miami (OH) adds 11 wins to the OSU opponent's opponent strength of schuedule stats.
Good point....did not think of that. Would be great to keep USC #4 in this one....and who knows, by some miracle they can fall to #4 in the NYTimes with LSU going to #2. Too bad Michigan can't get a similiar bump in their SOS.
