CHANCE LSU GETS THE INVITE TO A BCS BOWL GAME (ROSE OR ORANGE) 1. USC loses, Florida loses....................100 % (LSU moves to #3 in BCS, automatic bid is granted) 2. USC loses, Florida wins.....................99.7 % (LSU "should" move to #4 in BCS, automatic bid would then be granted) 3. USC wins, Florida wins.......................99 % (LSU "should" get at-large over Auburn, West Virginia and Virginia Tech) 4. USC wins, Florida loses......................70 % (LSU "hopefully" gets at-large over Notre Dame or Florida) Note: this assumes Louisville winning the Big East and not available as an at-large possibility, otherwise if Rutgers upsets WVU, then Louisville being an at-large berth would lower options 3 and 4 somewhat (multiply by 75 % for each). Increase the margin in #4 for every point that Arkansas beats Florida. For instance, should Arkansas win 34-17, then our percentages go up to 87 percent (add the 17 point margin of victory). The higher the margin of victory, the less likely the Rose/Orange Bowl will want anything to do with Florida. CHANCE LSU GETS THE INVITE SPECIFICALLY TO ROSE BOWL 1. USC loses, Florida wins......................98 % (Rose not likely to rematch USC/Notre Dame) 2. USC loses, Florida loses.....................78 % (Same as #1 except we contend with Florida as well) 3. USC wins, Florida wins.......................80 % (LSU contends with Notre Dame to play Michigan) 4. USC wins, Florida loses......................64 % (LSU contends with both Notre Dame and Florida) Note: I am basically figuring LSU getting picked over Florida (should they lose to Arkansas) as an 80 % chance. Also, notice the gap between USC losing vs. winning (LSU's chances increase by nearly 50 % if USC loses). The Rose Bowl would have the Notre Dame route by USC too fresh in their minds. The bigger the margin of victory by Arkansas over Florida increases options 2 and 4 to approach those of 1 and 3, respectively. If Louisville gets an at-large instead with a Rutgers upset over WVU, then multiply all the percentages above by 90 %. OVERALL PERCENTAGES OF LSU'S CHANCES Rose Bowl..........76 % Orange Bowl.......13 % Sugar Bowl..........1 % (USC loses, Florida destroys Arkansas and goes to BCS CG, USC/Michigan in Rose Bowl) Fiesta Bowl..........0 % Non-BCS Bowl.....10 % (Florida wins, reduce to 4 %, Florida wins and Rutgers loses, reduce to 1 %)
I'm convinced that you are not human and are a machine someone has set up to put information on this board. It's the only logical explanation.
I dunno, Michigan fans don't want to see a UM/ND rematch...the only ones that do are the talking heads. I think that the only way it is not LSU in the Rose Bowl against USC or UM is if USC and Florida lose badly this weekend and for some reason, the pollsters all vote LSU #2 to prevent an OSU/UM rematch in the National Championship (not likely, IMO). Plus, even if Florida loses this weekend, that pushes them down quite a bit in the polls...and would people rather see someone coming off a win against Arkansas in the Rose Bowl or a loss to Arkansas? (Especially if it is vs. USC) Remember, the Rose Bowl has the first two picks for replacement teams to OSU and USC (or in the case Michigan goes to the BCSNCG, first pick)...so they get to pick whoever they want, and they are likely to pick the most quality opponent that brings the most $$. Notre Dame is not a quality team, as they lost already to both Michigan and USC by large margins....plus LSU would likely bring in more money than Louisville.
If Florida loses, would that not possibly vault us into the number 4 spot and thus, an automatic berth? I don't see anyone leap-frogging LSU at that point. Am I mistaken here?
Probably so. Could you imagine islstl having a conversation with Miles. I would like to be a fly on that wall.
islstl is a freakin human computer.......sheez, it's amazing the information he compiles and provides. :thumb:
The talking heads may be putting ND in the Rose Bowl, but the Rose Bowl has always done exactly what it wants. I think they see some great storylines coming out of putting LSU there.
islstl, what are the odds that the Rose Bowl says "fark you" to all the pundits and doesn't even take Michigan but takes two at larges, perhaps ND vs. LSU?
I read that the BCS only has provisions for one team ranked 3 or 4 to get an automatic berth. If Michigan is 3 and we are 4, under that scenario, we would not get an automatic berth. I read this in a news article, and not off the BCS site, so there is a chance its shoddy journalism.
